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Show 40 Hypothesis 7: As the inflation rate increases, the electoral success (percent of the vote, number of seats, and movement by mainstream parties on niche issues) of MCCP niche parties will increase whereas the electoral success of environmental niche parties will decrease. Visually, in looking at the case of France, economic conditions have the expected relationship for the MCCP niche party, the National Front (FN), especially in terms of the unemployment rate. Of the four case studies, France has the most years, in total and consecutively, with a double-digit unemployment rate. The two lines on Figure 6 mirror each other quite closely; increases in the unemployment rate correspond to increases in the percent of vote received by the FN. Unlike unemployment, GDP is expected to have an inverse relationship to FN electoral success and this is clear at some time points like in 1993, 2007, and 2012, but during other periods, like 1981, 1997, and 2002, both are increasing and decreasing in similar fashions. Figure 7 presents the mixed signals with GDP, sometimes following the expected relationship and other times not. This mixed trend is also apparent in Figure 8, in looking at the environmental niche (EELV) and the unemployment rate. While the inverse relationship is clear from 1997 to 2002, from 2002 to 2012 they are more in sync, experiencing similar ups and downs. The most puzzling, due to how contrary to Hypothesis 5 it appears, is Figure 9. Here the literature expects a direct relationship between environmental niche party success and GDP but instead it is consistently and clearly the opposite. EELV has received a higher percentage of the vote when GDP has is low or has declined. Perhaps the unexpected relationship revealed in the case of the French Greens (EELV) ties into the additional complexities surrounding environmental niche parties and economic conditions. On one hand, environmental niches can face a dilemma between ecology and economic issues. They must face "whether and to what extent |
