OCR Text |
Show APPENDIX XII XII-31 Colorado River Basin will occur is limited almost exclusively to the upper basin. In the lower basin the major important factor is the date that the Central Arizona project will start to divert water. Thereafter, Arizona and California will be diverting water to the limits of their entitlements. Projects for Nevada involve relatively small quantities. Thus, the future pattern of deliveries to the states in the lower basin is firmly established. By contrast current upper basin uses are well below the assured upper basin water supply. This situation permits significant expansion of consumptive use before the upper basin reaches the ceiling attainable within the Compact. The rate of which upper basin water demands will grow depends upon several factors - the rate at which authorized Federal projects in the upper basin will be constructed and put into operation; the rate at which oil shale, coal and other energy resources are exploited; the rate at which municipal and industrial uses will expand; the level of conversion of water now used for irrigation to other purposes; and the future availability of water. To illustrate a range of possible future water demands, three alternative water demand schedules through the year 2000 were structured. Alternative 1 projects a reasonably slow rate of future water demand buildup in the basin. It provides for a low level of Federal project construction and for limited future water demands to service energy resource development in the upper basin. The Central Arizona project is estimated to divert water initially in 1987. Specifically alternative 1 provides that, in addition to the Federal projects currently under construction (Navajo Indian Irrigation Project; Bonne-ville Unit, Central Utah project; and the Fryingpan-Arkansas project), the five upper basin projects authorized in the Colorado River Basin Project Act would be constructed and in operation by 1987. It provides for a total of 22,630 MW of thermal power, 1,797 million cubic feet per day of coal gasification capacity, and the production of 680,000 barrels of oil per day from oil shale. All other functions and non-Federal development were projected to increase at a restricted rate. Alternative 2 is a middle-ground projection. It anticipates a moderate level of Federal project construction and a moderate increase in water demands to serve energy resource development in the upper basin. It projects initial Central Arizona project diversions in 1987. Specifically, it provides that, in addition to the Federal projects included in alternative 1, the Lyman project would be constructed by 1980 and some Ute Indian deferral lands and the Jensen unit of the Central Utah project would be constructed by 1995. Thermal power development increased to 28,060 MW, coal gasification capacity to 2,373 million cubic feet per day and oil production from oil shale to 1,315,000 barrels per day. Alternative 3 projects a high level of future construction of Federal projects in the upper basin together with sharply increasing water demands to service development of energy resources in the upper basin. It projects initial diversions from the Central Arizona project by 1985. Thus, alternative 3 represents a reasonably high projection of future basin water demands. Specifically it provides for the construction of all Federal projects now authorized except those authorized in the Colorado River Basin Salinity Control Act of 1974 which have little effect on water quantities. Thermal power development increases to 32,560 MW. Coal gasification capacity is at 2,911 million cubic feet per day and oil production from oil shale is at 1,515,000 barrels per day. Other demands are also increased substantially. In developing these alternative water demand schedules, extensive use was made of information in the Upper Colorado Region Comprehensive Framework Study. The projections of water demands for the energy function of thermal coal power generation, coal gasification and oil production from oil shale 41 |