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Show 3P ProbafoilitJ. Jlf,,/' II I /1 jr It c Hl·A IP. iX~. OJ,.'ftrobability.'~ ·" .. .f.J J J f 1lnt. 'ftl II ,, '~· 1 .'11 ' \SDe-m-' on ft ratt.a n .ss t l' .~ ~· 1ew.m ~ 'tl1'.e1 Aweem~Qt,, , or DI ifagre,e,1, .. _mem of two·Jdeas! y the mtcrventt.on of one or more J>l~ , 'vluch ha~e a ~onfiant, .'tTirputablc ,, 'llld ·vtfible ,connexion one \Vtth another : f9 Pro!x.Muy ss nQtl)/ng1 bur the appearance of fuch an AgrJ:em.ent, or'O.lfugreeln,e~t, bi}he interver~fQ(l of ProofS, 'whofe ~Pn' neX19n 1_s not confiant ancjunmutal;llc, or at leafi ss ;"Ot. perceived robe {o, llut 15, or appears,for ~he mofi part to l;le fo, and ~~ fP.ough to induce \he Mind to judg~ fhe. P'ropofition to be tr_m;, o~ falf: 1 ',.rather rhan the contrary. For example: In the c;Iemon!l:ra~wn of st, a MVI perceivenbe ~ertain immut~ble .connexi6d t~1ere is ~f f'luality, b.S~W'1"11 the, t4ree Angl~ of a _Trsangle, tnd thofe ~ntermedtate gnes, whi€Y) ,arc made ul'e of .to t~ew thesr Eq~:i\sty to two nght ones; a,~d fp by au, intuitive Knowledge of the AgreeQiebr, or Dtfagreement a{ the mtermedia;,e fdeas ig ,c,act1 ftep of the pro1,1r'efs, the whole SeriFs ts ~OQttnued wit,h :~n evjdei)<;C which cl~arly lh~Ws the Ag_reem~~t, or Di!iJgre:ment, pf ti1ofe 1l,1re~ Angles, m. eq?altty to two ngl1t ones: And thus heJlOSLftt~in !{nqw1 ledge that tt ss fo. But another Man whq never, r901> the pail'; (o obferve the Demo611'f11tion1 ,hea~jn~ a Mqthc111a~iclao, .il Mal) pf qedir; affirm tHe three l).qgles of a 'l;'napgle, tq ~e .cqllal ·to twp right · !lOCo$ a!fi:nts~ it} i. /!. .ref.ei·~~ it for trpe:Jn ~hich cafe, the foundat.iqn of h11 Alfent, !Stlie P;ob~bsht:y ,oLtl!.e tliso~, the PrOQf·,be!l)g f~~h ~s, [9r the ~oft_ parr, l:arnes Tr4th w1~h st : Th~ tyran on whofe1 Tefiimc;>QY he reces~s It, not Ge}l!g \~ont ta·a!prm nn~ th)p~contr~ry \9• or befid~s hi, Kno:viedge, efpec\al,ly m matters, of tljts k}n~. So that th~t which.cau, fes hts Affunt ~o thlS Propotbon,. that the t 1_rec Angles of a Triangjo he equal to two n~ht ones, thabpluc;hm~kes l)IU\~~Mhefe !(leas tp)\grr~, ~sth9ut know1ng them to do fo, 1.1 the WQnt~d V'wl:itf of the Sw~~~~ mother cafes, or hi~ fuppofed Veracicy i~ .)/1 ~\·, ,. 1 • 1 . 9.1.. Our KnotHed!?e, as ha~_been ll1e:-•n, peirg•very pa~row, anq w~ l)Ot h~ppy enough to find ce,rbm Tntth Hl ev~1;y thi?g, w~ h\lye oc,..fion to confider, moft of the Propofittons we t!nnk, real on, difcourfe', ll~Y' aq; UP9n, are f~<ch, as we cannot have u,n~qub1ed Kno11~rdge of tljeir Truth : yet fome of them bcr9er (o near u'pop c;errailiiY,, th'!t w~ mak~ n? do~<bt at allabou~ them; bu~ alfenr_to t\Jew :1,5 lin11ty, and all ac~prdmg, to that Ail'ent as vsg;oroufly, as sf tllH were iofallibjy dcmo~thn, te~, and thatourKnowledgeofthem was perfeCt and c~rtaiQ. But tfw•o besng degrees heresn, from the very ncighbcqrhood of Cert.ainty ami ~v.i dence, ·quste do~':' to Improbabiftty an1.lln!ikelinefs, even to th~ C¢n: fines of Impol!ibthty ; a~d alfo degrees of Alfent from certain Knowledg~, and what lS next tt, full Ailurance and Confidence, quite down to ConJeCture, Doubt, Difirufi, and Dtsbeltef. I thall come now as havin<> (as I think) found out the bcunds of humane Knowledge and 'certaintY, 111 the next place to confider tbejeyera! degrees and grounds o' Fr~babi- !uy, and A.f{ent or FaJth. , O ~- 1· Prob~bi!itJ then is like/inefs to be true, the very notation of the Wor9, ftgntfymg fuch a Propolirson, for which there be Arguments or Proofs, to make It pafs or be received for true. The entertainment the Mmd gtves tlus fort of Propofitions, is called Belief, A{{ent, or Opinton, wluch IS the adm1tnng o; receiving any Propolition tOr true, upon Arguments or Proofs that are tound to perfuadc us to receive it as true, with-t. ha.p . .XV. wlthoot' certain 'l{'tlo\vledgcth~.t 'itlis'fv: ,'A'h1cl'hereit\ ~~~ (he liiffr'ii)l e 'kll•e"<» Proba-bi?~~j~arld 'C~n{i»t),_ 'fd!th a'liM,,w., ;owte~~e ,,'that·i n aJI''F~e 'p:dls tif'itnowled: e, 1.t!l~re ' ss ,Irtt!uttdn; t'al:lr1Hu11el!f~le 'Ide~ each 1 'p has 1!1s'Vl1ible \r\i '·!.'l!n'ain conn~ldcJn; 'm 1Bci1H 'no~ .'fo. '1''fJ1:!t ·•m:df· e~e'believe<uls'fomcrhi~'gellt'rttneduS'(d /he thirt'~1 i be'YMve _ "tbln f·evidcnlty jtJined on dih fltles tb,'\H\l:l fo ndtiJlfi~·lf~llly rt~'e. m'chr, o'r"Di'fdgreeln~~ of thdfe !#e:t}fhat':tre.un~t'r"con{jdcf:lt 1on. • ~'f~. 'hobrrbili'1'! 1then being 'tb fupply 1th8'defeh 6'fbtlt' Knowf~~ and to 1.\nide·u's Whtrt rhm: 'fails', i\:. is ahv'n'fs 1_cohve'rfa'M.Jd!50ilt lldr\gs; whereat we have no cenamty, but only fome mducements to receive it fGr-tr-uc. The ·ground< of it are, in flwrt;-l'he!e trvo fo!lowirrg-:-· - Firff , The conformity of any thing with our own !{now ledge, Obfervation, and E~pcricnce. , Smnd!y, The Te!l:imbMy'of other's, JJuctf.ng their Obfcrvation and Experience. In the Tcfiimony of others, i.s to be conrtdcrcd, 1 • The Number. :~.. The lntegri~y. ~- Tile Skill of t\te Witnelfes. 4· The Defign of the Author, where it is a Teflimony out of a Book cired. 5· The Coofifl;ency of the Parts, aod Circumfiance5 of tlie Relatiqa. 6. Cp~ ttarr-Tefitmomes. . · · ~:~, Now Pio)?ab~lty wanting that /9tuitive Evid!?nce, .wiHch infal! i!J1y clet'ermine~ll{e ~n<ler!l:anqing, and_' prod .cos c5~blri, ~{t]o'y~eo/i. 1M Milt'd te[o fe d fattono!ly af{ents or if,!Jfpts to :u~J P~9ooiJie i1sop'ol.~ iiolj~' hJgi,t to ex.~"f'!pe "/' tbk gro_UII<fs of P.rob•bil!ty, '\\'\\ . f~e· )leW the1 p1:!k'e1~ote o~ )e~~ot. or agamjlst, ana u~n ~due baj~n,qpg t~t:, \vhol~ 11. ~ r~cesV'e 1t, ,w1th ~ moro or lefs fitm alfent, prpport10nal;i!J to !{19 0 "ddtt!ngy ~1\tle'greater grounds of l'fobabily on,_(\llq fide ,oi:.,th<; o . . l?or exalnP,Ie-: . , · 1 , Ji "1 Ifl tny felf fefi ~'Man walk on the Ice, it is pall: Pro\r.ibility, til ,l}OO\V• feilge ,: but if arloH1et tells m ~ hefaw a ¥ani~ Englanrlin _the midfi of a lllarp Winter, ivalk upon Water harden d w1th cold ; 1 th1s has f~ g\~'!~ C15tlfortnity with what is ufually obferved to hapt>cn, that I am dsfpgfed by the nature of the thing it felf to a/rent to it , unle& , fomc manifell fiifpicion attend' the Relation of that maher of fact. But iftbe fame thing fle told to one b'6th between the Tropicks, who !fever f~w nor lreard ol' atly 1\\th thing bef<lrc, there the whole Probability relib en Te/li~eny : Ana' as the Relators are more in number,and of more Credit,and have no 1'/l't<;l'e(i to (peak contrary to the Truth ; fa that mattcf of fact is like to.' find' more or lefs belief. Though to a Man, whofe Exf,erience has bee~ af,l<a~s ·quite conttary, and has never heard of any thing l1ke it, the mo!t Jhraihted Credit of a Witnefs will fcarce be able to find b'elief. As it hqpE" fled to a Dutch.Ambalfadour, who entertaining the King of Sianl with dlt ~rticlllirities of Ho!l~nd, '~ hicl1 lie (\las iriquifitiv'e after, among!t drher things told him, thar~lle Ware~ Ill' his Country, w9u1d fometim~s3 in'C6Mweatliet, Ile fa hard tl\at Men wollted upon i~, and' that it )Vc;>uld lieati an Eleph~nt, if he were tiMe. To \vhich the Ktdg. rc!plied, Hitlferto ! ~a'tJ( believed thiflrange l'bin'f,S you have told me, · hw<[e I lo.ok upon J,bifti)'afober fait frlan, but norv I am fore you ly~ .. , , . .. .. ~,'6'. Upon tlrefe grounds d'epends the f>roballlltty of any Propo(ttwrr :, 4-rtd lo.s tl\e cohforlnity of our Kno<vledge, :is the certainty of Obferva-1 tjods, as the freque'ncy and con!l:ancy of Experience, and· the nUin_&r. anq credibility ofTefiimonies, do more or lefs agree, or dtfagree Wtth tt, fQ-iS any Ptopofition in it fdf, m~re or letS prollal\le. 1 t!rer~ IS}~?tl:er,~ ~confefs, which tliough by it felf ir be no true ground ofProbaot~~tf,yet 1$ often made ufe· of tor onC', by wlitch Men moft' cemrffonly' regula to thetr |