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Show 2. Lake level prediction a.) Lake level trends are studied for several reasons including: A desire to predict future trends in lake level. A desire to understand and explain the timing and processes that cause lake level fluctuations. b.) Short- term forecasts can be the basis for contingency planning by the State of Utah and all GSL stakeholders. c.) Present techniques such as those of the UWRL may help DNR managers make short- term decisions based on lake level forecasts 1- 3 years into the future. Short- term forecasts can provide confidence intervals around the level the lake is likely to reach in the immediate future. d.) Longer- term predictions are only as good as the projections of precipitation over the GSL watershed. At present, such long- term predictions for GSL have not proven effective and are not given great confidence by the scientific community. e.) With little financial cost, DNR could establish a program to assess the utility and accuracy of predictions made by various individuals and organizations for future GSL fluctuations. In a decade or so DNR could then evaluate the usefulness of these predictive tools. 3. Lake level control a.) Hydrologically, it is not possible to regulate the lake at a specific level in any given year or control lake level changes during significant wet or dry cycles. Stakeholders should not expect the State to possess or develop a capability to control lake levels. Natural lake level fluctuations are an important component of the GSL ecosystem and should be recognized as such by the State of Utah. b.) A small reduction in annual maximum lake elevation is possible within the range of approximately 4207- 4215 feet above sea level. The DNR during the 1980s studied many options for reducing lake level fluctuations. Presently, the only viable short- term mechanism for lake level reduction is the re- activation of the WDPP. The environmental costs of using the pumps in the 1980s is presently unknown, but if there are plans to re- activate the pumps these costs should be determined. If a decision is made to reactivate the WDPP a strong justification exists for modifying the intake system to enable the pumps to take the less saline water from south of the causeway and the return system to re- circulate water and salt back to the lake. c.) Selective diking can protect critical public facilities. It does not protect the railroad causeway. 224 |