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Show four feet lower, culverts open; two breaches, culverts closed; and pre- causeway. There are corresponding changes in employment, payroll, state and local taxes and royalties. ( See Table 2- 3, Appendices 1- 1 and 1- 2.) • At lake levels of 4195 feet, the economic study predicts a range of revenues from $ 136 million for base condition and for breach four feet lower, culverts closed to a high of $ 336 million for breach eight feet lower, culverts closed. At all low lake levels, brine shrimp industry revenues are lowest. ( See Table 2- 3, Appendices 1- 1 and 1- 2.) • In general, total revenues also decline as lake level rises above 4205 feet. This decline is attributable to decreases in revenues from the north arm mineral and brine shrimp industries. However, at the same time, there is an increase in the proportion of revenues attributable to the brine shrimp industry. At 4212 feet, revenue differences among management regimes ( except pre- causeway conditions) were much smaller, and a ranged from $ 191 to $ 213 million. ( See Table 2- 4, Appendices 1- 1 and 1- 2.) North arm mineral industries contribute revenues of a maximum of $ 136 million and a minimum of $ 34 million depending on lake level and salinity. South arm mineral industries contributed revenues of a maximum of $ 174 million and a minimum of $ 0 depending on lake level and salinity. The brine shrimp industry revenue ranged from a maximum of approximately $ 115 million when producing 9,000 tons from both arms of the lake and a minimum of $ 0 when the south arm is at very low salinity and the north arm salinity is too high. ( See Table 2- 3 and Appendices 1- 1 and 1- 2.) The economic study assumes that brine shrimp cyst harvest can reach 9,000 tons when both arms of the lake are within the optimum salinity range for brine shrimp. This would be double the harvest of brine shrimp cysts taken from the lake in any season. The economic study did not examine what the impacts of doubling brine shrimp harvests might have on markets and prices for processed cysts. Conclusions Lake Level Management The economic study evaluated potential damages to lake level 4212 feet and confirms significant capital investment, operation and maintenance costs and revenue losses beginning at 4208 and 4210 feet. The GSL planning team believes the ability to control the lake's fluctuations or to protect facilities with dikes and other structures is limited. Pumping options may modify the rise of the lake but do not guarantee any given lake level. Various entities have made investments in protective structures but have achieved only limited protection. However, it remains the state's obligation to promote public safety and to responsibly manage state and federal funds. The preferred management 217 |