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Show Economic Analysis Executive Summary The Office of Energy and Resource Planning ( OERP) evaluated the economic impacts of three management recommendations contained in the GSL CMP. The GSL CMP lists the three as: 1.2 Develop strategies to deal with a fluctuating lake level 1.3 Determine the policy for the WDPP operation 2.1 Identify salinity management regime for GSL The first two recommendations relate to lake level, the other to salinity. Both lake level and salinity represent critical considerations to those entities which use the lake for mineral extraction, brine shrimp harvesting, wildlife habitat management, and recreational opportunities. This summary provides the results of the economic analysis for these management recommendations. Assumptions and Reliability of Data The results of the economic study are based on data gathered in the summer of 1999 from surveys sent to various entities around GSL. The responses varied significantly in the level of detail provided to survey questions. Further, the information is not audited or verified although the economic team consulted state employees with some knowledge of the industries and entities as a way of gauging the accuracy of the survey results. Surveys were not returned by UDOT, Morton Salt, and BRMBR. These entities all had significant capital losses/ investments during 1983- 1987 time period. Additionally, the economic team obtained limited data from the brine shrimp industry, receiving five responses out of 30 surveys. Therefore, the economic planning team consulted with DWR officials to supplement this weakness in data. The economic study, in analyzing survey data, made certain assumptions about how lake level would increase, the effectiveness of the pumps, when the pumps would be used, and how differences in salinity and lake level would affect brine shrimp or mineral harvests. These assumptions can be changed as directed by the planning team with, of course, different results. It is important to remember, in any case, that the data are to be used to compare alternatives rather than an accurate predictor of losses or impacts. All forecasts and predictions in the economic analysis are as accurate as the data and methodology allow. It is important to note that these results are somewhat sensitive to assumptions about pumping effectiveness, the timing of pumping, and investment during a rising lake level. Results for alternative C, especially, are sensitive to various assumptions regarding pumping and investment. 213 |