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Show Although some of these forecasts, with hindsight, seemed to show some promise, there was a general consensus by researchers and climatologists, at the time, that predictions could not be made with any degree of assurance. Some researchers who made forecasts in the 1980s still believe they are able to make reasonably good forecasts of future short- term forecasts of the GSL level. There, however, still remains a general scepticism by researchers and climatologists that these forecasts can be made with any assurance. Since 1990, one new forecasting model has been developed at the Utah State University Utah Water Research Laboratory. This model is still being " fine- tuned" but has shown a reasonable good reliance to forecast short- term levels of GSL. Recent forecasts made using the water lab's model have matched the lake levels for 1998 and 1999. The model forecasts a rising lake level for at least another four years. If this or other models prove to be reliable in forecasting short- term future lake levels, they will be valuable tools for use with the GSL CMP. Flooding Impacts Flooding in the recent past has caused enormous financial damage and has required expensive mitigation. The lake flooding episode of 1983- 87 is estimated to have caused over $ 240 million ( 1985 dollars) in damages. Had the lake level continued to rise and halt the operation of the northern and southern railroad causeways and 1- 80, it is estimated that the state could have suffered from $ 500 million to $ 1 billion ( 1985 dollars) in direct and consequential damages. Development and placement of structures in hazardous or flood- prone areas are the major causes of these high damage figures. Flooding of Interstate 80 and Other Access Roads 1- 80 near GSL was adversely affected during the flooding period of 1983- 87. Several sections had to be raised as much as eight feet, to an elevation of 4214 feet, to make the freeway useable. The cost to do this work was approximately $ 20 million. UDOT subsequently installed concrete pavement ( final surface) from Burmester to the Tooele Interchange, replaced the bridge and modified Black Rock Interchange, all of which were completed in 1992. This section of 1- 80 is not expected to need attention, other than routine maintenance, until around 2002. Because of this construction, 1- 80 would not be flooded as long as the lake level does not rise above 4211 feet. The Davis County Causeway to Antelope Island was a state highway at the time of the severe flooding of the 1980s and was inundated. This highway was transferred to Davis County on May 17, 1991 and was subsequently raised two feet, to 4208.75 feet, and was paved during 1992. Use of the Davis County Causeway is adversely affected by lake levels of approximately 4204 feet and higher. Flooding Impacts on the Southern Railroad Causeway The southern railroad causeway ( Union Pacific Railroad Causeway), located at the southern end of GSL, is a major rail line to the West Coast. It presently serves many chemical industries in this 30 |