OCR Text |
Show land equivalent acreages. Six categories are pre- sented: (1) irrigation; (2) flood protection; (3) flood protection, drainage, and clearing; (4) drainage and clearing; (5) clearing; and (6) improvements hi technology and increased intensity of cultivation. These categories are used in classifying the production potentials and in showing possible attainment by 1975 as well as ultimate potentials. Improvements in technology and increased in- tensity include the results of the adoption or use of any method or practice, superior crop varieties, or animals that will result in increased produc- tion. Included in this category is the potential production that would result from the use of sup- plemental irrigation in the more humid areas of the Eastern States. The irrigation production potentials are to be interpreted as being suffi- ciently broad to include all types of irrigation and more effective use of water on present projects in the Western States. Flood protection, drain- age, and land clearing overlap, and may also apply to present cropland and to new land. These potentials may be compared with the an- ticipated increase in requirements presented earlier. This comparison shows that full development of the production potentials will barely provide sufficient production to meet the requirements anticipated by 1975. Although the procedure and assumptions on which the analysis was based appear reasonable, it should be recognized that the situation in 1975 may deviate materially from that assumed in the analysis. It should also be recognized that diets which are adequate nutri- tionally could be met from products that would permit the use of fewer acres per capita than have been projected for the adequate moderate- cost diet. It is equally true that with adequate purchasing power, the average American would probably select a diet which would tend to in- crease rather than reduce the per capita acreage requirement. It is logical to assume that the various production potentials will be developed, and that the order and timing of the develop- ments constitute the important considerations. The only alternative to this procedure would be an increase in imports. Basis for Decisions on Projects Adding New Farm Land On the basis of the above analysis it is possible to outline the considerations which should enter into decisions to undertake multiple-purpose projects involving additions to the country's farm lands through irrigation, drainage, flood control, or clearing, insofar as the agricultural aspects of such decisions are concerned. These should in- clude the following: 1. A projection at least 20 years ahead of the country's requirements for agricultural produc- tion, based on projections of population, per capita consumption, purchasing power, dietary trends, dietary goals, trends in use of various kinds of fibers, industrial needs for agricultural products, export and import probabilities, etc. This should be broken down so as to provide a basis for translation into requirements for crop- land, hay land, forest land, and pasture. It should also be broken down by regions. 2. A projection of the dependable capacity of the country to produce agricultural products based on available land, taking into account re- ductions due to urban-industrial expansion and other competing uses, trends in productivity of the various types of land an influenced by tech- nology, genetics, and availability of fertilizer, trends in the use of such land as between crops, pasture, and forest, all on the basis of past ex- perience in the frequency and duration of favor- able and unfavorable climatic conditions, and also on the basis of average climatic conditions, together with carry-over storage possibilities. This should be broken down by regions. 3. Relationship to the soil and watershed con- servation programs including (a) the resulting withdrawal of land from crop production; (b) the effects of such shifting of land to other uses; (c) the possible effect of the bringing in of new agricultural land on the rate of progress of the soil and watershed conservation program; and (d) opportunity for resettlement of displaced persons. 4. Relationship of proposed additions to agri- cultural lands by drainage or irrigation to the soundness of the economies of the several re- 16S |