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Show TABLE 7.-Cropland acreage used for various purposes, 1910-50 Total, including harvested land, failure, and fallow Cropland acreage- Used for production for export Used to produce feed for horses and mules Used to produce food, fiber, and tobacco for domestic consumption Total Per capita' 1910-14........ MiUion 337 359 365 374 381 373 371 375 MiUion 44 52 55 48 34 24 20 48 Minion 90 92 85 74 64 55 42 30 MiUion 203 215 225 252 283 294 309 297 Acres 2.14 1915-19...... 2.09 2.05 2.12 2.26 2.28 2.29 2.06 1920-24...... 1925-29. 1930-34........ 1935-39_______ 1940-44..... 1945-49 i______ * Preliminary. Source: Five-year averages from S. E. Johnson, Changes in Farming, U. S. Department of Agriculture, Misc. Pub. No. 707, December 1949. Per capita figures computed, using Census data from table 4, page 154. to 1919, and remained fairly stable for the next decade at about 50 million acres. It dropped sharply after 1930, to a low of 15 million acres in 1941. During that decade it averaged about 26 million acres. Food shipments were greatly increased as a result of the war, doubling acre- age requirements. By 1949, the figure had again reached 50 million acres.2 The future of agricultural exports is very un- certain. Analysis of a 1945 study3 in the light of recent trends indicates that the acreage needed for export production may drop from the present 50 million acres, leveling off at about 40 million. Cropland Needed for Workstock.-ln 1910,90 million cropland acres were needed to produce feed for horses and mules. By 1949, this total had declined by two-thirds, to 30 million acres. United States Department of Agriculture studies 4 indicate that by 1975 there will be only 2 Martin R. Cooper, Glen T. Barton, and Albert P. Brodell, Progress of Farm Mechanization, Misc. Pub. No. 630, U. S. Dept. of Agriculture, October 1947, p. 76, table 34. 3 What Peace Can Mean to American Farmers-Post- war Agriculture and Employment, U. S. Dept. of Agri- culture, Misc. Pub. No. 562, May 1945, pp. 14-16. 4 Farm Production Practices, Costs and Returns, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, U. S. Department of Agricul- ture, Stat. Bull. No. 83, October 1949, p. 23. half as many horses and mules in use as there are today. Assuming comparable yields, production of feed for this number of animals would require about 15 million acres of cropland. This will have to be supplemented by 6 million equivalent acres of pasture. Cropland Needed for Human Use.-Over the past 40 years, the acreage used for human con- sumption has risen by a little less than half, while population has increased more than half. Acreage per capita dropped from 2.14 to 2.05 between 1910 and 1925, rose to 2.26 in 1930, and hovered near there until 1944, and then dropped to 2.06 during the next 5 years. Multiplying the 1945-49 per capita acreage by the 190 million population estimate for 1975 gives a figure of 391 million acres as the require- ment for human use in that year. This figure could be sharply increased by increases in food consumption as better diets are supplied, or it could be considerably reduced by increases in production per acre. Total Requirements.-On the basis of the pre- ceding analysis it is possible to project the na- tional requirements for 1960 and 1975. This is done in the following table on the assumption that the Nation's diet remains approximately the same as in the 1945-49 period and that produc- tion per acre also remains constant. This table indicates that, on the assumptions stated, the present figure of 542 million acres will have to be increased 641 million, or by 99 million cropland acres, to meet the require- ments of the population estimated for the year 1975. This figure might be considerably increased, if an adequate diet were made available to the whole population. It might require up to a 15- percent increase in cropland requirements,5 which would amount to 96 million acres (641X 0.15). B Christensen estimates that about 20 percent greater food consumption per capita would have been necessary in 1942 to bring all the people below an adequate nutri- tional level at moderate cost up to this level. (See Christensen, R. P., Efficient Use of Food Resources in the U. S., U. S. Department of Agriculture Technical Bui. No. 963, October 1948, p. 12). In 1942, food consumption was at an index of 109 (1935-39 average= 100). The average consumption for 1945^19 period 158 |
