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Show TABLE 8.-Projected acreage requirements for 1960 and 1975 (assuming 1945-49 consumption levels and acre yields) 1 Requirements for domestic consumption of food, fiber, tobacco, and feed used for livestock products. Excludes double cropping; includes 25 million acres for fallow and crop failure. Per capita acreage=297-s- 144=2.06. Requirements for 1960 and 1975 calculated by applying this figure to population projections. * Total cropland equivalent of pasture, 142 million acres minus cropland equivalent of pasture for horses and mules=127 million acres. Per capita requirements=127-s-144=0.88. Requirements for 1960 and 1975 calculated by applying this figure to population projections. Source: Unpublished data and calculations from the U. S. Department of Agriculture. Meeting Increased Requirements Analysis of the Nation's expanding needs for agricultural production provides a background for determining the weight which should be given to the agricultural features of multiple-purpose river basin programs. It strongly suggests that present food surpluses are transitory. The real agricultural problem is how to assure sufficient production to meet the requirements of an ex- panding population, which will be, as stated, about 99 million acres. The increased agricultural production re- quired by 1975 can come only from three major sources: (1) increasing production from lands now in farms, (2) bringing new lands into pro- was about 114, 12 percent below the level necessary for an adequate diet at moderate cost for all (the 1942 index of 109 increased by 20 percent=130). Hence, the consumption index would rise 14 percent above current levels if the whole population received an adequate diet. There would, of course, be many in the population who consumed more than the equivalent of an adequate diet at moderate cost, as is now consumed. duction through reclamation, and (3) import- ing more from other countries. The Commission believes that two fundamen- tal objectives of Federal water resources policy must guide the approach to a solution of this problem. The first involves recognition of watershed management or soil conservation as a major re- sponsibility of the Federal Government. The Nation must preserve its basic soil resources, and the acceleration of this program will affect both the quantity and type of farm output. The second involves recognition of the long established importance of the reclamation pro- gram as a major contributor to regional develop- ment and particularly to the establishment of a broader base for the country's entire western economy. The significance of this objective has been dealt with at some length in the early pages of this chapter. Soil Conservation.-The Department of Agri- culture estimates that about half the present crop- land in use is subject to erosion. The Soil Con- servation Service estimates that over 50 million acres of land now in cultivation, but not physi- cally suitable for permanent cropping, might well be retired to grass or trees in the next 20 or 25 years. The continuance of the higher yields of recent years, averaging about a fourth above those prior to 1940, will probably require an accelera- tion in the adoption of soil conserving practices, including shifts of croplands subject to erosion into pasture or less damaging crops and more careful management of lands remaining in crop production. These shifts might require the equivalent of 20 million acres of cropland or 5 percent of the cropland area.6 To offset production losses resulting from the retirement of 50 million acres of cropland to 9 According to conservation studies, the protective and maintenance measures needed to sustain productivity of cropland include cover crops annually on 34 million acres, green manure crops on 55 million, and crop rotations on 213 million acres. Carrying out those measures would involve shifts in use from grain and other soil-depleting crops to sod, manure, and cover crops, and installation of rotations containing more hay and pasture uses of cropland. 911609-5( -14 159 1945-49 1960 1975 Millions Millions Millions Population_____________............ 144 169 190 Cropland requirements: JlflBtow Millions Millions For human consumption: of acres of acres of acres From cropland i___...........____ 297 348 391 From pasture (cropland equivalent)'______.............._____ 127 149 167 Total________________________ 424 497 558 Forexport_______.....____________ 48 40 40 For horse and mule feed: From cropland_____________...... 30 18 12 From pasture (cropland equivalent). 15 9 6 Idle cropland_______................... 25 25 25 Total cropland acreage or equivalent___ 542 589 641 |