OCR Text |
Show occurred. The scientific knowledge concerning improved technology is already available to allow even more remarkable increases in production than those experienced, and means of further expanding such knowledge are promising. In- cluded are possibilities for extending hybridiza- tion to other crops and animal breeding, further possibilities for developing disease-resistant va- rieties of crops, weed control, improved soil management, fertilizer technology, and especially potentialities of technological improvements being applied in combination to particular farms and soils. Operating as a limitation on the full realiza- tion of the advantages of improved technology is the rate of adoption of better practices by farm- ers. There is usually a considerable lag between the development and use of improved production techniques and practices. Numerous factors affect the extent of this lag, such as the relative simplicity of applying the improved practice, in- formational efforts and incentives designed to encourage adoption, tenure and credit arrange- ments, and the financial position of operators, including the relationship of product prices to costs. The absence of proper soil management may operate as another limitation on the realization of the full benefits of improved production tech- nology, possibly resulting in an adverse effect on the productivity of land. For several decades before the 1930's, the application of improved production techniques had little or no apparent effect on average. yields. Although major em- phasis was placed on more efficient production through reducing inputs rather than increasing output, a principal offsetting factor was the de- terioration that was occurring in the productivity of soils. Soil depletion, through erosion and crop removal, substantially offsets increases that other- wise would have resulted from the expanded application of fertilizer and lime, improved varie- ties, mechanization, insect and disease control, and the bringing of new productive lands into cultivation through irrigation and drainage. However, increased levels of crop yields do not require that exploitative and fertility depleting practices be followed. In order to realize high yields, improved soil management practices that conserve or build up inherent soil productivity are more likely to be necessary. Perhaps im- proved soil management should itself be con- sidered one of the major types of technological improvements, the more widespread adoption of which would lead to improved soil structure and the prevention of topsoil erosion. Such improve- ments in soil treatment appear a necessary part of any program designed to reap the full benefits from the application of better production tech- nology. As knowledge of the variability in the productive response of different types of soils is increased, opportunities for the optimum sus- tained utilization of soils will be expanded. For some soil types, this may involve a reduction from initial productivity levels, while for others fer- tility building may be justified. In view of all these considerations it seems probable that average per acre yields will con- tinue to increase over at least the next quarter century although the rate of increase may be somewhat less rapid than during the past decade. In case demand is sufficient to maintain favorable prices, farmers will be encouraged to continue adopting improved practices. However, the rates of return from additional improved prac- tices are likely to be less as adoption progresses. Also, earlier adoption is likely to occur among the more progressive groups of farmers, with accept- ance by the remainder at a slower rate. Cooperative studies conducted by the land- grant colleges and the Department of Agricul- ture quoted in the Report on Long Range Agri- cultural Policy (the Hope Report) in 1948, indicated that it would be economically feasible for farmers to increase per acre production to a permanent level about one-third above prewar years. In the light of developments since the early war years when the studies were com- pleted, the estimate would appear quite conserva- tive as one likely to be reached during the next decade, since yields for particular crops have already gone up more than a third. For purposes of projecting land requirements, two assumptions with respect to yield increase have been made. One, designated as a "moder- ate increase," assumes that in 1960 and 1975 163 |