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Show Dual Containment: Successes, Failures, and Prospects for Changes in Policy David Walsh restrict the movement of Iraqi forces, so as to protect the Kurds, who had rebelled at the end of the Gulf War but had been crushed, and to prevent Iraqi forces from threatening Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. In order to accomplish this, "no-fly zones" were established in Iraq, prohibiting Iraqi aircraft from flying south of the 32nd Parallel and north of the 36th Parallel, so as to prevent air strikes on Kurdish refugees as well as air support for Iraqi troops near the Kuwaiti or Saudi borders. Additionally, U.S. aircraft struck Iraqi surface-to-air missile (SAM) batteries in these areas, since they presented a threat to coalition aircraft patrolling the no-fly zones. By 1993, the United States had become the preeminent global power. The collapse of the Communist regimes of Eastern Europe in 1989 and of the Soviet Union in 1991 had seen the main challenge to the United States in the international arena disappear. However, the threat of renewed Iraqi aggression in the Persian Gulf, as well as of Iran's rearmament program and aspiration to be the dominant power in the region, meant that the United States faced threats to its own and global security. The importance of Persian Gulf oil to stability and prosperity has demanded a continued American role in the region. The new Clinton Administration sought to prevent Iran and Iraq from threatening the oil lifeline of the Persian Gulf, and instituted a policy known as dual containment to achieve these aims. This article examines what dual containment has and has not accomplished in the following sections. Dual Containment-Elements of Policy The dual containment policy consists of three key elements: 1) military containment of Iraq and Iran; 2) economic sanctions on these countries, meant to induce changes in regime and/or regime behavior; and 3) political efforts with allies and various other powers (i.e. Russia and China) to strengthen this policy through international support. A fourth element, though it has received less attention and effort, is covert action, meant to destabilize the Iraqi and Iranian regimes and thus weaken or eliminate the threat presented by them to the security of the Gulf. The elements of this policy are examined here in the order in which they are listed above. Military Containment The United States deploys significant military forces in and around the Persian Gulf in order to contain any aggressive moves by Iraq and Iran. Moreover, large stocks of American military equipment are prepositioned throughout the region, for use by reinforcements in times of crisis. The U.S. Central Command has some 21,000 personnel from the Army, Navy, Marines and Air Force in the region. The largest ground contingent is an Army task force of battalion strength (some 1,200 men) stationed in Kuwait. This force has been increased at various times, as during Operation Vigilant Warrior in October 1994 (see "Dual Containment-a History" below for details), and in September 1996, when 4,000 troops were deployed after Iraq made hostile moves against Kurdish enclaves (Holzer 1996, 20). The United States has enough military equipment prepositioned in Kuwait and Qatar to support the deployment of an armored brigade to each. On Masirah Island, controlled by Oman, the United States has access to an airbase and prepositioned equipment for ground and air forces. The United Arab Emirates has provided the port of Jebel AH for storage of naval equipment. The U.S. forces deployed throughout the Persian Gulf serve to protect the Strait of Hormuz and monitor the southern no-fly zone over Iraq. U.S. aircraft operate out of Ahmed al-Jaber air base in Kuwait, Sheik Eissa airbase in Bahrain, and various bases in Saudi Arabia. They serve to enforce the no-fly zone and to prevent Iraqi aggression against Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. U.S. maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft use Omani bases at Seeb, Khasab and Thumrait to patrol the Arabian Sea and Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet headquarters are located at Mina al Sulman, Bahrain, and there is a small U.S. naval support facility at Fujeira, United Arab Emirates (Finnegan 1996, 58). The U.S. Navy maintains forces in the Indian Ocean as well. A carrier battlegroup is usually deployed, along with an amphibious ready group carrying a Marine Expeditionary Unit (1,800 men). With budget cuts, however, there are gaps in carrier deployment. In order to maintain air support for its Gulf forces, the United States deploys Air Expeditionary Forces (AEF) to the Gulf. These forces are light and are able to be sent rapidly to the region. Three AEF deployments have taken place in Jordan and Oman, and the Central Command has judged them a success (Holzer 1996, 20). Major prepositioning efforts have been undertaken in the Indian Ocean. At Diego Garcia, 20 ships ride at anchor, loaded with equipment for the Central Command. Each service has prepositioned equipment on a certain number of ships. The Army has stored equipment on nine ships, the Marines five, the Navy two, the Air Force two; and there are two tankers from the Defense Logistics Agency which provide fuel supplies for U.S. forces. The Army has been storing equipment for a heavy combat brigade at Diego Garcia since November 1993. The equipment includes 123 M-1A1 tanks and 15 days worth of essential supplies. The Marines' Maritime Prepositioning Squadron (MPS), which, in addition to the five ships loaded with equipment has a Fleet Hospital Ship assigned to it, can support a Marine Air-Ground Task Force (17,300 men) for 30 days with ammunition, rations, supplies and water. Another ship is planned for the MPS to add to its capabilities (Binnendijk, et al. 1996, 122, 124). The U.S. military strategy in the Persian Gulf relies less on forces stationed in the region than on an "over-the-hori-zon" capability. American forces in the Gulf and Indian Ocean conduct and support Operation Southern Watch, the no-fly zone in southern Iraq, while monitoring Iranian military moves in the Gulf. There are also U.S. combat aircraft based in Turkey that enforce the no-fly zone over northern Iraq to protect the area's Kurdish inhabitants. The U.S. naval ?u |
