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Show Hinckley Journal of Politics Autumn 1998 presence within the Gulf, centered on the Middle East Force, provides a visible presence to deter Baghdad and Teheran. In the event of a major war, these forces would wage the initial battle, while larger forces would arrive from the United States, Europe and the Pacific, link up with prepositioned supplies and turn the tide. U.S. allies, such as Britain and France, which have deployed forces in the region several times, probably would support American efforts, as would the forces of local Gulf states. The military element in dual containment, therefore, serves as visible deterrent to Iraq and Iran. The United States has the ability to deploy forces to the region, while avoiding a large and costly U.S. presence in the region that would be difficult to sustain in an era when defense budgets have been reduced significantly. Economic Sanctions Since the end of the Gulf War, Iraq has been subject to United Nations embargoes designed to prevent a significant military buildup and to force Iraq to cease and desist from attempts to build weapons of mass destruction (i.e. nuclear, biological and chemical weapons). Resolution 687 of the U.N. Security Council (1991) is the most important of these, calling for the elimination of such programs through the destruction of such long-range missiles as Scuds, and of research and development centers that support these efforts. The resolution also calls upon Iraq to recognize Kuwait's borders. In October 1992, the Security Council passed Resolution 778, which calls for Iraq to transfer foreign-held Iraqi funds gained from the sale of Iraqi petroleum products to the United Nations Escrow Account, to help pay the costs incurred by its actions against Kuwait (Congressional Research Service 1996, 2, 6). These sanctions have met with some success. U.N. weapons inspectors have secured access to many Iraqi facilities, and have supervised the destruction of weapons and support facilities. However, these efforts have been hampered by the Iraqis at certain installations. Also, the sanctions prevented the Iraqis from gaining some much needed food and medical supplies. As a result, such items were purchased through the black market and have undermined U.N. sanctions. The United States has imposed sanctions on Iran in order to deprive Teheran of the revenue and technology needed to enhance its military capabilities. These sanctions also serve to isolate Iran, sending a message that the United States hopes will persuade other governments to desist from economic relations with it, thus preventing an Iranian military threat to the Gulf (Congressional Research Service 1994, 7). Specifically, through Congressional statutes, the United States has prohibited direct aid to Iran (Section 507 of Foreign Assistance Appropriations), prevented American contributions to international organizations and programs that might benefit Iran (Section 307 of the Foreign Assistance Act), and prohibited indirect U.S. aid, such as contributions to multilateral development banks or international organizations that loan or do work in Iran (Con- gressional Research Service 1994, 9). Export controls are also part of economic sanctions, the most important being that which bars exports of weapons or spare parts. This has been in place since the seizure of the U.S. Embassy in November 1979 (10). These controls help prevent Iran from gaining technologies that could help it improve its armed forces and military programs. In April 1996, Iran was barred from engaging in any financial transactions with U.S. companies under the Antiterrorist Act (Amuzegar 1997, 36). By engaging in economic sanctions, the United States hopes to enhance dual containment by isolating Iraq and Iran in the Middle East, while weakening their military capabilities. Political efforts Washington hopes to make dual containment a multilateral effort, attempting to isolate Iraq and Iran as fully as possible. Militarily, the United States has enjoyed support from its NATO allies in enforcing the no-fly zone in northern Iraq in support of the Kurds (Operation Provide Comfort), and has been supported by the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). Most nations have honored the U.N. economic sanctions against Iraq. With Iran, however, matters are rather different. Many of America's closest allies, including France and Germany, have maintained trade relations with Iran and have made significant investments in its economy. In fact, they have in certain instances taken advantage of U.S. sanctions in order to improve their position in Iran. In 1995, the U.S. Government forced Conoco to cancel a $1 billion deal with Iran for development of oilfields. The French company Total stepped in to secure the contract for itself (Brzezinski, Murphy and Scowcroft 1997, 29). Some cooperation has been obtained, including the Wassenaar Arrangement, which is a commitment by 33 weapons-producing countries not to sell arms or sensitive dual-use items (technology that can be used for both civilian and military purposes) to Iran, which is a "country of concern" (Pelletreau 1996, 8). Nonetheless, the issue of economic relations with Iran, as well as some issues of policy regarding Iraq (easing of sanctions to buy food and medical supplies), are examples of the division that exists between the United States and its allies regarding policy toward the Persian Gulf. In another part of the Middle East, there is also cause for concern regarding dual containment. The peace process between Israel and the Palestinian Authority has foundered over the past year. Armed clashes and terrorism threatened to undermine efforts to isolate Iraq and Iran from the region's politics, which is a main objective of dual containment. The failure of these efforts will serve to weaken the overall policy of the United States in the Middle East by indicating that its initiatives are unrealistic and unsustainable, and would lead to an ascendency of prestige for such countries as Iraq and Iran, which would offer alternatives to Washington's leadership. The progress of peace talks between Israeli and Palestinian negotiators and the role of the United States are of vital importance to the security of the Persian Gulf. 79 |