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Show Hinckley Journal of Politics Autumn 1998 dates attached to doing well in the early contests in order to gain momentum for Super Tuesday (1989). The campaigning methods in the South changed because of the sheer size increase. As a journalist described it, "The three-week run-up to Super Tuesday had the feel of a mass airplane hijacking, as planeloads of desperate candidates and their journalistic hostages flew from tarmac to tarmac, stopping only to refuel and blink into television lights" (Hertzberg 1988). One campaign strategist related, "Super Tuesday's a black hole. It eats up your money and energy. You break it into three components-Tarmac, Debates, Ad-and try to survive" (Grady 1988). It's true that the western regional primary would be made of eight states, as opposed to 14 states. It's also true that Salt Lake City is a natural hub of the western states, and Utah's Governor Leavitt is leading the charge on the regional primary. Arizona and Colorado each have eight electoral votes (Utah has five); would they be more likely targets for campaign stops? Nonetheless, both the location of and the influence coming from Salt Lake City suggest to the author that most candidates would consider Utah an important place to include in their western regional campaigns. Even if the increased visits from candidates meant more airport "tarmac stops" to which Hadley and Stanley referred, those would be more visits than the state of Utah has had until now. Phoenix and Denver might not be pleased with the potential loss of attention (as the author implies by looking at Super Tuesday results)-Arizona's early primary date and Colorado's production of presidential candidates have brought them attention in the past (Sheehan 1998b). The "Gateway to the West" An important factor that could dramatically change the entire structure of presidential campaigns is California's recent moving of its primary to the first Tuesday in March. Because of its huge number of votes, which largely have been wasted in the presidential nomination process as a result of its late primaries, an early primary there could force candidates to begin their campaigns in the West, and from there work their way eastward (Leavitt 1998; Sheehan 1998b). "We believe candidates will not only campaign in the west the few days before our primary, but also be in the west several months in advance to get to know the west and its issues" (Sheehan, 1998b). Tim Sheehan of Governor Leavitt's office, said that the California primary, which could turn into the West Coast Primary (with the inclusion of Oregon and Washington on the same date), could benefit the Rocky Mountain states if the western regional primary were held around the time of California's primary. "With California's size, a very early primary would likely cause candidates to flock to the west. The Rocky Mountain states are on the trail westward-candidates would probably stop by cities like Salt Lake City" (1998b). The idea of candidates flocking toward California (a state serving as a bellwether), if the western primary were sched- uled immediately afterward, is not without some precedent. Journalist John Heilprin covered the 1992 New Hampshire primary and the South Carolina primary in 1996. He related (1998) the prominence South Carolina gained because of its position, right before Super Tuesday. As the first southern state, South Carolina billed itself as the "Gateway to the South"- and candidates such as Dole campaigned heavily there, seeking to gain momentum as they headed to the southern region (1998). Would California serve as the "Gateway to the West"? Another perspective of California's relationship to a western regional primary is offered by Gurian (1998). Gurian notes the potential of California to be like New Hampshire: "Think of it - New Hampshire speaks for the rest of New England." And "if California is the first western primary, it will speak for the west and will give the winner a huge boost in terms of delegates" (1998). Gurian surmises further, however, that if the western regional primary were to be held before California's primary, the Rocky Mountain states would tap into the momentum factor - candidates will campaign in the intermountain west in order to gain momentum for the large California primary (1998). The Regional Task Force The state legislatures of Utah, Wyoming, Idaho, and Nevada already have formed task forces. Under Senate Bill 240, passed in the 1997 Utah Legislature, the task force includes 2 bipartisan members appointed by the Governor, the Speaker of the House, and the Senate President (each appointed one Democrat and one Republican, for a total of six members).5 States which have similar initiatives pending include Montana, New Mexico, Arizona, and Colorado. The Western Governors Association (of which Leavitt has been Chair) will facilitate a Joint Task Force conference in Salt Lake City on November 16-17, 1998. The Task Force's directives are to: a) recommend a common date for a joint presidential primary to each participating state in the Task Force; b) recommend mechanisms to increase presidential candidates' attention to western regional issues - such as public land management, water policy, and natural resource use (grazing, mining, timber) - and interaction with western voters; and c) assist participating states in review and consideration of legislation authorizing participation in a Western Presidential Preference Primary on the same date (McKinnon 1998). Although the Western states are about 75 percent Republican (Stokes 1998), overall efforts to form the regional primary are bipartisan, with both parties supporting the concept (Taylor 1998; Stokes 1998; Sheehan 1998b). The members of Utah's Task Force are: Gov. Michael Leavitt, Utah Democratic Party Chair Meghan Holhrook, Sen. David Buhler, Sen. Blaze Wharton, Rep. Steve Barth, and Rep. Ray Short. 4a |
