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Show also assume that exceptions areas will develop 1/3 less densely. Table 1 summarizes the basic assumptions behind the two development scenarios. Table 1. Land consumption assumptions Historical Trend Land-Conserving Alternative Population in 2050 Household size in 2050 Density Exception areas Resource land 3,541,977 2.4 persons/household 7.0 dwelling units/gross acre Full buildout by 2050 New dwellings on farm and forest land at historical rates 3,541,977 2.4 persons/household 8.6 dwelling units/gross acre Full buildout by 2050 at slightly lower densities No new dwelling units on farm or forestland after 2010 Source: ECONorthwest. 2.2 RESULTS ECONorthwest developed a spreadsheet to keep track of the many assumptions about key variables, model their interactions, and estimate land consumption in UGBs. Figure 3 summarizes the methods and results of our simulations for the Historical Trend and Land-Conserving Alternatives. DRAFT Summary Report ECONorthwest December 2000 Page 7 |
