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Show Final Report Hydrologic Model Analysis of the Provo River Basin 3.2 Streamflow Results PROSIM produced simulated historical monthly streamflow results at each model node for the period 1960 through 1989. PROSIM- produced historical flows are compared graphically with recorded flows in Figures 3- 1 through 3- 3. Simulated results agreed well with recorded flows at all streamgages. 3.3 Reservoir Contents Results PROSIM simulated historical monthly reservoir volume results at the Head of River Reservoirs, Deer Creek Reservoir, and Utah Lake. Simulated storage results were also produced for individual owners and users in all three reservoirs. PROSIM results are graphically compared with historical reservoir volume data in Figures 3- 4 and 3- 5. Simulated reservoir volume results agreed very well with recorded historical data. 3.4 Water Supply Results PROSIM produced simulated historical diversions for 108 ditches and 108 separate water users. Combined diversions for all individual and lumped users are compared with the historical demands/ diversions in Figure 3- 6. The simulated diversions agreed well with the historical diversions data that were used as the user demands. 3.5 Conclusions Regarding the Historical Simulation The PROSIM simulation of the historical scenario leads to two important conclusions about the use of the model. First ( and most importantly), this simulation has demonstrated that PROSIM is capable of accurately replicating the processes that influence flows, reservoir storages, and diversions on the Provo River system. Based on this analysis, the basic hydrology and the water rights and institutional arrangement modeling appears thorough and accurate. These results indicate that simulation of future scenarios using this model should yield results that can be used for future water resources planning and operational decisionmaking purposes. The second conclusion from the historical modeling is that the accuracy and predictive value of PROSIM results may be decreased if either of the following two conditions exist: 1. Operating policies are used on the Provo River system but are not included in the institutional arrangements modeled by PROSIM. January 1998 Page 23 |
