| OCR Text |
Show Final Report Hydrologic Model Analysis of the Provo River Basin ten percent in 22 of the 25 years evaluated. Simulated monthly average flows were within one to four percent of historical values at all gages except Provo City, where three out of twelve months had variations of up to 30 percent. Simulated reservoir contents results compared favorably with historical results until the mid- 1980' s, when unmodeled reservoir operational changes occurred, including the Deer Creek/ Strawberry Exchange, operations to mitigate high flows, and agricultural water conversions. During the 1960 to 1984 period the PROSIM Deer Creek Reservoir results were within 10 percent of the historical values, 83 percent of the time. At Utah Lake, simulated results were within 10 percent in 96 percent of all months modeled. PROSIM- simulated river diversions closely match the historical diversions. On the Provo River above Deer Creek Reservoir, simulated diversions are within one percent of historical values. On the lower river, PROSIM results are within five percent of the historic values more than 93 percent of the time. The conclusions of the calibration and verification process are that simulated results are in close agreement with recorded values. The PROSIM model and its hydrology and operations logic are judged to be adequately calibrated and ready for use in simulating future Provo River operational scenarios. Additional detail concerning the calibration process is presented in the draft Technical Memorandum - Preliminary Simulation Results, Historical Calibration Scenario ( CUWCD, 1994a). The simulated historical results are documented in the following section. January 1998 Page 21 |
