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Show THE PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS: THE NEW INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM AND THE MIDDLE EAST Kevin F. Jowers weapons increases, so do opportunities for their use, whether by an accidental launch, premeditated planning, or terrorist attack. Such factors, particularly in the context of the post-Cold War world, make the possibility of a universal nuclear peace very unrealistic. A more practical solution is to work on limiting the future proliferation of nuclear weapons and gradually reducing the number of nuclear armaments, although it is doubtful that the number will reach zero in the foreseeable future. Particular attention ought to be paid to prevent proliferation to states that would be more likely to use nuclear weapons for more than defensive purposes. One of the first steps is to reduce the self-help characteristics of the international system through confidence-building measures. Agreements for the non-use of nuclear weapons and nuclear weapon-free zones (NFZs), such as those established in Latin America and the South Pacific, are one possibility (Van Ham 1993, 90). Efforts must also be made to encourage responsible handling and guarding of nuclear weapons, as well as improved safety measures for those weapons already in existence. In the Middle East greater efforts must be made to overcome the mutual distrust, long-standing disputes, and continued hostilities that characterize the region. Until some progress is made in lessening the tensions associated with these problems, including some concrete steps towards peace between the Arabs, Israelis, and Palestinians, any type of NFZ or arms-limiting agreement is unlikely to be realized, particularly given Israeli possession of nuclear weapons. Threats in the region could be reduced somewhat by measures to facilitate the peaceful resolution of conflicts and disputes, although even limited measures of this type will not be easily agreed upon. The question of nuclear proliferation is one of great concern for the present and future of international relations. Although realists disagree about the benefits and risks associated with the presence of nuclear weapons, the potential costs associated with any use of nuclear weapons is extremely high. The end of the Cold War introduced a new international system and altered many of the conditions that allowed the Cold War to preserve a nuclear peace. Given the characteristics of the post-Cold War world, particularly as highlighted by the dynamics of the Middle East, proliferation remains a real threat and one that requires continued attention. The international community, as well as individual states, must take an active approach to discourage the proliferation of nuclear weapons and promote confidence-building measures and peaceful dispute resolution. REFERENCES Cohen, Avner. 1998. "And Then There Was One (Israel is the last nuclear 'threshold state')." Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, September-October, 51-56. Dunn, Lewis. 1993. "What Difference Will it Make?" in Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz eds. The Use of Force. Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 514-526. Feldman, Shai. 1997. Nuclear Weapons and Arms Control in the Middle East. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. Inbar, Efaim. 1998. "Israel Strategy." Middle East Review of International Affairs (MERIA). <http://www.biu.ac.il/SOC/besa/meria/journal/1998/issue4/jv2n4 a2.html> (December). Nye, Joseph S., Jr. 1997. Understanding International Conflicts. Reading, MA: Addison Wesley Longman, Inc. Power, Paul F. 1995. "Middle East Nuclear Issues in Global Perspective." Middle East Policy, September, 188-209. Russett, Bruce, and Harvey Starr. 1996. World Politics: The Menu for Choice. New York: WH. Freeman and Company. Van Ham, Peter. 1993. Managing Non-Proliferation Regimes in the 1990s: Power, Politics and Policies. London, England: Pinter Publishers. Venter, Al J. 1999. "How Saddam Almost Built His Bomb," Middle East Policy, February, 45-61. Waltz, Kenneth N. 1993. "Toward Nuclear Peace," in Robert J. Art and Kenneth N. Waltz eds. The Use of Force. Lanham, MD: University Press of America, 527-555. Wolfenstein, Lincoln. 1996. "End Nuclear Addiction" in John Rourke ed., Taking Sides. New York: McGraw-Hill, 263-267. 48 |
