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Show THE PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS: THE NEW INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM AND THE MIDDLE EAST Kevin F. Jowers in order to preserve its regional monopoly on nuclear weapons and thus maintain a military advantage. An example of such action was Israel's bombing of Iraq's Osiraq nuclear reactor in 1981. There is also a risk of nuclear weapons being seized by a rebel or terrorist group to gain leverage over a state. In such a situation, a threat to use such weapons on civilian or strategic targets could greatly improve the group's bargaining power against a state and deter an attack against them (Dunn 1993, 514-516, 521-525). THE MIDDLE EAST: PARADIGM OF THE NEW INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM In looking towards the future of the post-Cold War world, the Middle East is a region central to the proliferation debate. The dynamics of this region, as seen from the realist perspective, make it a fitting paradigm of the international system as a whole and give added incentives for each state to provide for its own security. The Middle East is a volatile region and the proliferation of nuclear weapons would intensify the animosities within the region and increase the destructive potential of future conflicts. Since World War II a number of wars have been fought in the region. Israel and several of the Arab countries in the region were involved in a several conflicts between the 1940s and 1970s, largely over issues of ethnicity, religion, and nationalism. In the 1980s, the Iran-Iraq War lasted eight years and led countries in the region to support one side or the other based on their own security concerns: Saudi Arabia and Jordan, fearing Iranian revolutionary power, sided with Iraq, while Syria supported Iran out of concern over the rising power of neighboring Iraq. Israel also provided covert assistance to Iran since Iraq was perceived as a closer threat. Following Iraq's invasion of Kuwait in 1990, most Arab states sided against Iraq in the Gulf War, due in part to the urging of the United States and the United Nations, but also out of fear of an increase in Iraq's power, particularly following such clear-cut aggression against a smaller state. In addition there are a number of ongoing territorial disputes in the region (Nye 1997, 152-155). The long-standing animosity between the Arabs, Palestinians, and Israelis is an ongoing source of tension and violence in the region. Rather than minimizing the conflict, peace talks have repeatedly failed to achieve their aim. Aggressive and militaristic regimes and leaders in Iran and Iraq, states with a history of disregarding international norms, have worked toward building a nuclear capability for a number of years. In addition, numerous terrorist groups operate in the Middle East and have strong ties to regimes in the region, such as those of Iraq and Libya. There is considerable concern over what such groups would do with a nuclear arsenal at their disposal. Finally, the presence of Israel as a nuclear state is a cause for concern among its Arab neighbors (Van Ham 1993, 59-60). Undoubtedly the most advanced military technology in the region belongs to Israel, which is the only Middle Eastern state believed to have acquired nuclear capability, thus far. There is a strong belief throughout the world that Israel's nuclear arsenal consists of at least 200 weapons (Power 1995, 201). Nevertheless, Israel's use of these weapons is limited to some degree by its strong ties to the United States, from which much of Israel's technology comes, as well as a large amount of foreign aid annually. In addition, for at least the next several years, Israel will remain dependent upon U.S. early-warning systems for an alert against an incoming missile attack. It was largely due to urging from the United States that Israel did not attempt retaliatory strikes against Iraq for the Scud missile attacks on Israeli cities during the Gulf War (Inbar 1998). Possession of nuclear weapons gives Israel the ultimate deterrent and, at least in the minds of Israelis, their best defense against any aggressive designs of its neighbors. From the realist standpoint, Israel's possession of nuclear weapons is understandable: it is a small state surrounded by a number of larger, antagonistic states, some of which seek to destroy the Israeli state altogether. A number of wars were fought between Israel and its Arab neighbors and there is a continual sense of apprehension in Israel over possible future threats, a mentality enhanced by the memory of the Holocaust. Part of the Israeli culture is now rooted in the conviction that nuclear weapons are vital to Israel's security and that no Arab nation should be allowed to possess a nuclear capability as they could threaten the very survival of Israel. The bombing of the Osiraq nuclear reactor was a demonstration of this latter conviction (Cohen 1998, 52-54; Feldman 1997, 104405). Although widely recognized as possessing nuclear weapons, Israel never publicly acknowledges such possession, following a policy referred to by Avner Cohen as "nuclear opacity" (1998, 51). This ambiguous nuclear policy serves Israel well by allowing the state's security to benefit in the face of its neighbors, and yet avoid the political and economic costs often incurred by states actively pursuing nuclear weapons. With regard to relations outside of the Middle East, Israel is able to largely avoid problems of international non-proliferation norms because the United States, a long-time ally, actively seeks to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons to other states in the region. Within the region, the purposeful ambiguity in Israel's nuclear policy has avoided actively encouraging any of its Arab neighbors to pursue a countervailing nuclear capability. Although Israel repeatedly insists that it would not be the first state to introduce nuclear weapons to the region, the inability of its neighbors to rule out the possibility of a retaliatory nuclear strike, even against a conventional weapons attack, undoubtedly tempers the actions and relations of a number of Arab states toward Israel (Feldman 1997, 96-98). In addition to Israel, other states in the Middle East continue to pursue nuclear weapons of their own, particularly Iraq, Iran, and Libya, although the latter has scaled back its efforts in recent years. There is considerable international 46 |