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Show SECTION III THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EMPLOYMENT ( JOB) FIGURES AND SIZE OF LABOR FORCE Table 6 shows figures from Projection C- DF printout ( of UPED, by BEBR) for Salt Lake County, for 1970 through 1995. The data show the number of jobs ( employment) exceeds the number of persons in the labor force ( those at work or unemployed and actively seeking work). The " employment" column refers to the number of jobs of residents of the County and not the number of jobs which are located in Salt Lake County. The seeming anomaly of the account of employment exceeding the labor force is readily explained by BEBR's assumptions: The total employment figure in each quinquennial year exceeds the labor force total by reason of multiple employment of some individuals. Those with multiple employment are taken as 6.4 percent of the labor force, while unemployment ( a variable in the model which relates to the in- migration demand) is projected not to exceed 5 percent in a given year. Thus, in 1995, total employment in Salt Lake County is projected to exceed the number in the labor force by 1.08 percent These assumptions are considered to be rational. The figure for multiple employment, 6.4 persons, ( i. e., the ratio of the actual jobs count to the number of employed persons is 1.064) is also employed in national employment projection models; and the unemployment assumption of five percent is fitting with previous and recent experience in the County ( and consonant with the apparent fact that such a level of unemployment seems a structural element, over time). Labor Force Participation Rates: Dynamic vs. Static In reviewing the population projections through 1995 by BEBR for Salt Lake County, Williams and Mocine noted that the projections were made on assumptions of constant ( 1970 level) labor force participation rates ( LFPR) * The ratio between 185,890 jobs in the County in 1970 and the number of persons going to work ( journey- to- work census) 174,800 was 1.0634. This figure represents the apparent " moonlight" ratio. 16 |