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Show on further examination of the several Alternative Futures of the UPED study, particularly Futures V, VI, VII and VIII ( described on page 4 of this report). Even so, it must once again be stressed that these growth projections are conservative, since more economic development in the county than predicted by A. F. Zero seems likely. Comments on Population Projections for the Wasatch Front Given acceptable projections of the population and labor force of the United States, it is possible to discern a trend over time in the ratio of population to labor force. The ratio, as Table 4 shows, drops from 2.439 in 1968 to 2.176 by 1990, reflecting a number of factors in the population, including changes in family size, in participation in the labor force by men and women, and in expected birth rates in future years. With the projection of labor force as well as population ( in the Alternative Future Zero data), it is possible to develop comparable ratios for the Wasatch Front MCD. The MCD data show a drop in the population- to- labor force ratio from 2.439 to 2.26, from 1975 through 1990. It is then of interest to compare the set of MCD ratios with the U. S. set, and to look for a pattern. As column 7 of Table 5 shows, there is indeed a pattern: from 1975 through 1990, the MCD/ US ratio ( column 5 data divided by those of column 6) shows a drop from 1.07 in 1975 to 1.038 in 1990, and ( using a Williams and Mocine estimated figure for 1995) to 1.02 in 1995. The meaning of the trend in the ratios of column 7 is that population and labor force characteristics in the MCD are expected to become more nearly like those of the nation as a whole as the years pass, and as the end of the century ( and millennium) approaches. This cross- sectional measure appears to change in a consistent fashion, and in a direction which is expected from currently observable trends. The available data for Series C- DF do not have information on size of labor force in the various years of the projection ( 1975- 1995). When such data are obtained similar analyses will be prepared so as to test internal consistency, trend, and reasonableness. 13 |