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Show year. It is concluded that shortages could commence by the year 1991 and in no case would they start later than 1995 under the conditions shown in Tables No. 1 and 2. "The same general conclusions as to the shortage by the year 2000 are indicated from the results of the studies covering the period 1906 through 1965 (estimated). "The only exception to the above would be if Lake Mead were completely drained to absolute dead storage. Under this condition substantial shortages for the Lower Basin beneficial uses would occur sometime after the year 2000, after which they would be as severe as those, indicated in Tables No. 1 and 2, and Studies 21 and 22 of Appendix B. "The beneficial consumptive use of main stem Colorado River water as made at the present time by California is something over 5.0 maf. In the studies it was assumed that California would continue this level of use until it became fairly imminent that the contents of Lake Mead, because of releases for consumptive-use purposes, would approach rated power head. It was assumed that at this point the uses by California would be cut back to 4.4 maf. Some have taken the position that this cutback should be made at the time the Central Arizona Project would go into operation, which is estimated to be about the year 1975 if the project is authorized at an early date and is expeditiously constructed. It is not considered that this position is a sound one. "Under each of the studies from which these conclusions have been derived, deliveries at Lee Ferry of amounts greater than the 75 maf in successive 10-year periods as required by the Compact, have been made. The excess amount of water is more than sufficient under the assumptions made for the studies to supply the amount which California is now using in excess of 4.4 maf. Even if California were cut back to 4.4 maf in 1975, the studies indicate the shortage in the Lower Basin would be substantially greater than one million acre-feet in the year 2000, if the rated power head at Lake Mead is to be maintained. "While the Colorado River Compact by its terms makes the generation of power subservient to the consumptive use of Colorado River water for agricultural and domestic purposes, there arises the question as to whether it would be possible and practicable to deplete storage in Lake Mead to the point that no power could be generated. Power contracts with the Secretary of Interior exist, and many industries and municipalities now are dependent upon the power 35 |