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Show prices prevailing during the planning study will be assumed to hold generally for the future, except where specific studies and consider-, ations indicate otherwise, ! . ., D. The Discount or Interest Rate •'..'• The discount rate w i l l be established in accordance with the ! • concept that the Government's investment decisions are related to , the cost of Federal borrowing. , , * , j E. Consideration and Comparison of Alternatives ' \ ,:' A range of possible alternatives capable of application by various l e v e l s of government and by nongovernmental interests, should be studied. These alternatives should be evaluated or judged as to their contributions to the objective!, i-' 'r r ' "• t' ..' a, Plans, or increments thereto, will not be recommended for '-' Federal development that, although they have beneficial effects on the objectives, would physically or economically preclude alternative non- Federal plans which would likely.be undertaken in the absence of the Federal plan and which would more effectively contribute to the ob-., Y jectiv.es when comparably evaluated according to these principles. , (';,>v; •.'•;'.'•*: F. Period of Analysis ; The period of analysis will be the l e s s e r of (I) the period of time over which the plan can reasonably be expected to serve a useful purpose considering probable technological trends affecting various „, alternatives, or (2) the period of time when further discounting Of ...,,••,,• beneficial and adverse effects will have no appreciable effects on , design. Appropriate consideration will be given to long-term en- . / vironmental and social well-being effects which may extend beyond; * •> periods significant for analysis of national economic development or m regional development beneficial and adverse effects; -. ' s _t ; i ; . : - i . '' ." '-, ',-.' '' ' ' ; , ' .; .'.J '• ' .''r**w^.. -x " <.'\t'|. . .''.- ::>x .'<]'•: ',, ••'•!.'•,'• :'• 4:\}'<:}-:.'< ' G . S c h e d u l i n g ' ','',•..'•'•:. •;' '••' ''•'.••"...;• '•".'. ::.'-.:•••;.:, ::.'•'.-".'iy'Vi'': Plans should be scheduled for implementation in relation to needs so that desired beneficial effects are achieved efficiently. Beneficial and adverse effects occurring according to different patterns in time are affected differently by the discount process when plans are scheduled for implementation at alternative future times. Therefore, •-';''. :. '; ' •••'••;• :. ',,'::""' •''•)':'• / / ' 1 1 ' ; \ " r ••::.'.•'': • :' ••$.%.'?•-. h:ifi&-ffl& plan formulation should analyze the alternative schedules of implementation to identify the schedule that would result in the most desirable mix of contributions to the objectives when the beneficial and adverse effects of a plan are appropriately discounted. 82 I ; U . <•' • - • ' - • • ' • • • : - } . , ' . . ' • • • ; - ; - . : • < , . ' . : • • V • ' • • • ' • - : . 1 ' : ' . ' . ' " • • , -, • •:.' , I ' H. : '•• , • • Risk and Uncertainty j Risk is characterised by a distribution'of events occurring accord-i ing to reasonably wellrknown probabilities, even though their, sequence (t and time of occurrence,cannot be determined. Frequency analysis in ! hydrology, where 16ng: records are available or can be mathematically•'; .,' simulated, is an example of predictable risk. In such situations, it v I may be necessary to choose between planning for average or probable1 'conditions and planning for extreme events. When this is done, the * , <-nature of the choice and its relationship to the objectives will be k clearly stated,- Predictable risk; based upon past experience, should • ", not be divorced from predictable or foreseeable trends which would ,••••; alter probabilities based 6olely upon previous experience.V- •• ;.: " .Uncertainty is characterised by, the absence of any known pror j bability distribution of events.. This is often the situation in water ,1 resources planning. . T h e nature of uncertainty associated with the j planning study, strategies proposed to deal with uncertainty, and • | their impact on the objectives should be reported. In addition, .;? sensitivity analysis>may be employed to analyze uncertain situations. ' " j . , • | • . ' ' '' '. •• ' i -' •'• L Sensitivity Analysis 1 ,,[', | Plans should be examined to determine their sensitivity to data ;'-j availability and to alternative assumptions as to future economic, demographic, environmental, and technologic trends, Selected pro- £| jections and assumptions of alternative futures that are reasonably probable and that^' if realised, would appreciably affect plan design 'j or scheduling should be analyzed, 7 • •','':,'> •'.:";••-•: ...'•>•,'• i j J. Updating Plans ; , < ,•;•'• , : • , ' ••";.. Because,, of rapid change to social economj^j^jgjiyixojimental, techn^ljp^i^^pnyBT^'al^yrfl is not imple- 'mentejjgiffijm •^"'Vea^on^ reviewed ^XStoJitidaXin^tbe sjtaj^*atQffTfj^^ e best alternative to achieve the objectives. **?T** Z o zni m en | 12 ,,;f;;;.i-;;':.;':.':.l r]i;^:\:y(" FEDERAL REGISTER,. VOL. 38, NO, 174-MONDAY ;. ".<• , , , ' '» • ' • ? ; ' . ' . • • , : ' • • • . , • - • .•'• • • " • V': : T . . : : ' . . • • : • " ... •« . . f - x ..: . ', : >•': ''••••"• '"^i'r:-;'*;^:;i,r:'':'V^\!i?:/'S'.'.^'''.-/:;K;-^f'-';,' :.-:?xi'.' ' .'.. : V -' '.•)';• \ ' • ' ; : = •;• H ; • ' v - " ' , . ^ '.•-•./•• x .<".; f: . ; , : ; '•';•:: / ' • ' ' •*•,':••:• :•< • i'.s ^: :'.i:s^x'-:x- -'^vfe; '••'" :";-.!;;:;-/ :4'-'' : •..-. \ ' • » ' ' ; . 1 - • : . ,• ' ' ' • ' ' ' , ' ' . • • > ' j !:'.'.:• /SEPTEMBER 10, 1973 ' ^ : . . " • ' ' ; . ' :/ mMii* .-.•. • i • : ' [ . - . . •• " ' , ' • * ' ; ' : ; • ; • ' ;.; >x<-h-'>,':'''..•:'• i'' |
