OCR Text |
Show 78 Forecasting: Research in the development of long- term and short- term forecasting techniques need to be supported, including: • Long- term forecasting ( 3- 12 months into the future): o The difficulty of accurately estimating how much water is in the snowpack for the drainages of an entire river basin might be solved through the application data/ sensor fusion methodologies. o For western states like Utah, obtaining better estimates of when and where the snowpack will turn into quantities of streamflow will require improvements in watershed modeling to make it cheaper to do and to make the results of modeling more widely available to stakeholders in a decision- relevant form. o Accurately estimating future precipitation quantities ( both rain and snow) on a regional scale will almost certainly require advances in our understanding of the role that long- term global climatic phenomena ( such as ENSO and El Nino) play in affecting weather patterns in the Great Basin. Frankly, much was done in this regard during the mid- 1990s, but support for this sort of research from both Federal and State agencies is almost nonexistent during times when droughts or floods are not being experienced. These investments must be made now in order to prepare for the next water crisis. • Short- term ( on a time frame of hours to days) forecasting and management of water- intensive systems: o Cheaper data collection and telemetry technology must be developed and installed on large water systems so that accurate information can be maintained on a continuous basis on the state of the systems ( e. g., canal flows, reservoir volumes, soil moisture, local weather conditions) and desired future water deliveries. Better real- time data will result in more efficient system management. o Effective and easy- to- use methods must be developed to provide the capability for timely analysis of large water system conditions in order to identify optimal real- time and short- term system operations rules. Again, these technologies might make substantial water savings possible. The Utah Water Research Laboratory has expertise and research methods available to assist the State of Utah in the several areas identified and described above. Additional resources would be needed to support statewide applications and implementations. We would be pleased to collaborate with water resources agencies and other research organizations in the development a more detailed work plan to address the sorts of problems and needs discussed here. |