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Show 23 June 3, 2002 Mark Eubank B. S. Meteorology, University of Utah, 1972 Chief Meteorologist, KSL Television, Radio & Internet Chief Meteorologist, 2002 Salt Lake City Winter Olympic Venues Drought Forecasting Short Term 1. Automated Monitoring ( local & regional) a. Rainfall b. Snow water & depth ( Utah - 60 out 143 sites are manual!) c. Temperature d. Soil moisture ( Utah - only 6 out of 143 sites) e. Reservoir levels f. Well levels 2. Prediction a. Snow melt runoff models b. Rainfall timing c. Climate Prediction Center 30 & 90 day forecasts Long Term 1. Monitoring ( national and global) a. Precipitation b. Temperature 2. Variables a. El Nino- Southern Oscillation ( ENSO) b. North Atlantic Oscillation ( NAO) c. Sea Surface Temperatures ( SST) d. Quasi- biennial Oscillation ( QBO) e. Sun's magnetic cycle ( HALE cycle) f. Others 3. Prediction a. Climate Prediction Center 90 day forecasts out to 1 year 4. Drought Prediction contest a. Seed money for legitimate groups ( Universities, existing private sector, others) Up to $ 200,000 matching funds for up to 20 groups b. Sizeable prize for the best technique over 80% accuracy $ 1,000,000 plus a 20 year patent |