OCR Text |
Show availability would be shared proportionately by all water users. The second set of alternatives was based on the hypothesis that the increase or decrease in water availability would affect only those water uses contributing the least economic return per unit of water used, directly and indirectly. The low-return water uses include: (l) forage, feed, and food; (2) feeder livestock; (3) cotton; and (k) all other agriculture. Lower Main Stem Subregion The reduction or increase of water use by 500,000 acre-feet, to be distributed in the same proportion as uses projected in the OBE-ERS projections for year 2020, would result in a corresponding reduction or increase in the economic final demand by $6.8 billion (33 percent), and in labor requirements by 220,000 man-years (3^ percent). If the water reduction or increase was confined to those sectors making the smallest contribution to the economy, the corresponding reduction or increase in economic final demand would be $86 million (h percen-t), and the labor requirements would be 2,100 man-years (3 percen-t). Gila Subregion In the analysis of a water reduction or increase of 1,000,000 acre- feet to be distributed in proportion to the uses projected in the OBE-ERS projections for year 2020, the corresponding increase or decrease in economic final demand would be over $9.9 billion (2k percent), a~d for labor requirements would be 39^*000 man-years (2k percent). If the water reduction or increase was confined to those sectors with the smallest contributions to the economy per acre-foot of water, the corresponding decrease or increase in economic final demand would be $175 million (about k percent), and in labor requirements would be 5,700 man-years (3 percent). Regional Impact A total reduction of 1.5 million acre-feet in water use in the Lower Colorado Region in year 2020 applied proportionately to all sectors would result in a reduction in final demand of $16.7 billion, and a reduction of 6l4,OOO man-years of employment opportunities. The total water deficiency in the Region in year 2020, if there were no water imported to the Region, would total about 4.5 million acre-feet, or 3 times the reductions analyzed. If total water use becomes limited to the available natural supply, the effects on the economy and employ- ment opportunities in the Region would be devastating. The rural econ- omy would be severely depressed and social penalties would spiral. ikk |