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Show CHAPTER M - ALTERNATIVE LEVELS OF DEVELOPMENT The previous chapters of this report have dealt exclusively with modified OBE-ERS projected levels of development. These projections were based upon regional review and modifications of the March 1968 projections (OBE-ERS) which were furnished to the Region by the Water Resources Council, and are considered to be in the median range. Additional revisions to the population projections were provided by OBE in June 1969- OBE-ERS Projections, March 1968 The differences between the OBE-ERS projections for the Region and those used in developing the regional framework program are minor, especially in view of the unpredictable changes in trends that are inherent in any 30- to 50-year projection. However, the differences between some elements of the projections for the Lower Main Stem and Little Colorado Subregions are of greater significance. In the Lower Main Stem Subregion, there is a major difference in the population projections of the Nevada portion where the economic growth is largely recreation and tourist oriented. The water-oriented recreational opportunities afforded by Lakes Mead, Mohave, and Havasu on the Colorado River and the increasing popularity of the lavish entertainment facilities of Las Vegas, Nevada, have accounted for a rapidly increasing population growth. The population of Clark County, Nevada, has more than doubled between i960 and 1970, and the Mohave County, Arizona, population has more than tripled. The land avail- ability, coupled with the water conveyance and treatment facilities now under construction to serve Las Vegas, will probably support a con- tinuation of a high growth rate through year 2000. The difference between the modified OBE-ERS projections and the 1968 OBE-ERS projec- tions for the Lower Main Stem Subregion is largely a matter of timing. The modified projections would require a more rapid rate of water- related development until year 2000, and then a reduced development rate until 2020 as the two projections converge to within 15 percent of each other. There are also significant percentage differences between the 1968 OBE-ERS and the modified OBE-ERS projections for population and irrigated agriculture in the Little Colorado Subregion after year 2000. However^ the numerical differences are not large. The increases are largely in McKinley County, New Mexico, and are attributed to economic advances by Indians, extended development in uranium, anticipated coal development , 137 |