OCR Text |
Show OBE Projections, June 1969 The Office of Business Economics issued revised population projec- tions in June 1969* The Lower Colorado Region framework study had progressed beyond the point where further changes in projections could be accommodated. However, these projections were examined and found to reflect major differences in projected population growth. A comparison of the modified OBE population projections, the OBE March 1968 projections, and those issued June 1969 is shown in Table l4, and graphically in Figure 21. As shown in Figure 21, both the 1968 and 1969 OBE projections of the 1980 population indicate a substantial decline in rate of growth between 1970 and 1980, then increasing again after 1980. The projections issued in June 1969 would indicate a slower rate of growth in the next 10-year period than has occurred in any 10-year period since 19*^0, and that the 1970 to 1980 rate would be only 5Q per- cent of the i960 to 1970 rate. This seems unreasonable in view of the 1970 census data which ranks Nevada and Arizona first and second, respec- tively, among the states in rate of growth over the past 10 years. In Clark County, containing most of Nevada1s share of the Lower Colorado Region population, the 1970 census count was 112 percent above that of" I960, with population increasing from 127,000 to 270,000. Arizona showed an increase of 35 percent, with the population increasing from 1,302,161 in i960 to 1,752,122 in 1970. The Region's total population increase from i960 to 1970 was k2 percent. The growth rate of the Region would need to slow to 17 percent for the next 10-year period to stay within the June 1969 projections. The discrepancy is greatest in. the Lower Main Stem Subregion which has been experiencing a recent growth boom centered largely in the recreation, retirement, and enter- tainment sectors. The i960 to 1970 population growth rate of 80 per- cent would need to slow to 13 percent for the next 10-year period to stay within the June 1969 projections for the Lower Main Stem Subregion. Economic Analysis of Alternative Levels of Water Supply An analysis was made to evaluate the economic significance of increasing or decreasing the level of water availability as compared with the annual requirements computed by use of the OBE-ER& projections for year 2020. A value of plus or minus 500,000 acre-feet was used in. the analysis for the Lower Main Stem Subregion, and plus or minus 1,000,000 acre-feet for the Gila Subregion. A similar analysis for the Little Colorado Subregion would yield insignificant effects. Two alternative projections were made for each of the two sub- regions using the increased level of water availability, and two also at the decreased level using two sets of assumptions. The first set of alternatives postulated that the assumed increase or decrease in wa-ter |