OCR Text |
Show 107 the period chosen as "representative" determines in large measure the ultimate conclusion regarding supply. In this case, at least four different periods were put forth as the proper standard for analysis. Arizona and California chose the period 1909-1956 ;33 Nevada selected 1930-1956.84 In addition, the periods of 1914-195635 and 1922-195636 were suggested as appropriate for study. Such disagreement indicates the difficulty in arriving at any reliable conclusion as to which period will be repeated, if any. The disagreement over the proper period for study is actually merely a reflection of the fundamental difficulty in determining supply of the Basin, namely, the erratic character of the rivers therein. In all of the representative periods selected, there were, from year to year, extreme variations in flow. The tables reproduced at the end of this section show, for example, a flow at Lee Ferry in 1953 of 8,805,000 acre-feet, less than half that of the previous year. Such an erratic supply pattern makes it extremely difficult to predict, even within a very broad range of accuracy, the supply which will be available in any particular year. In order to overcome the uncertainty of predicting yearly supply, the experts predicted the average annual supply for various periods and assumed that this average would be the actual yearly supply for the period. There is no doubt that Hoover Dam was designed and may be used, to some extent, to translate an uneven yearly inflow into Lake Mead into stable yearly releases of water from Lake Mead. But there is a definite limit on the effectiveness of the dam in this regard. The evaporation losses on stored water in the Lower Basin are substantial, see pp. 124-125, infra, and, of 88See Ariz. Exs. 352, 353; Calif. Proposed Finding 5E:101. 84See Nev. Proposed Finding XXIX; Nev. Brief, p. 130. 35Tr. 21275-21278, 21282-21285, 21331 (Riter). s«Tr. 21755-21759 (Hill). |
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Original Report: State of Arizona, complainant v. State of California, Palo Verde Irrigation District, Imperial Irrigation District, Coachella Valley County Water District, Metropolitan Water District of Southern California, City of Los Angeles, California, City of San Diego, California, and County of San Diego, California |