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Show plans for the system in that only the potential uses deemed feasible will be considered further. Recreation, especially fresh water activities, and wildlife have been suggested as potential uses of Farmington Bay. Mineral extraction has not been suggested as a potential use due to the low salinity and the lack of desire by industry to use the bay for this purpose. For discussion purposes, recreation and wildlife will be considered the only potential uses identified for the system. Alternative development plans then involve only recreational and wildlife uses. This does not indicate that both uses will be included in the final recommended plan. Rather, it indicates that with the present knowledge of the system both uses appear feasible. This may not be the case as more data become available on characteristics of the physical system. If the water quality of the bay is as poor as expected, fresh water recreational uses may not be feasible unless a way is found to upgrade the conditions. The vital point is that in the planning process the consideration of a use continues until the decision- maker deems the use infeasible or not desired by the public. Table 16 illustrates the role of research in the comprehensive plan development. The table is divided into three levels corresponding to the hierarchical structure depicted in Figure 4, namely, the decisionmaking process, the social use systems, and the physical system. The time axis in Table 16 is broken into time periods which may represent one to several months. The time periods are used only to indicate that the various stages of planning may require different lengths of time and that specific research and decisions must be carried out in a logical and systematic order. Basic research on the physical system can be justified before specific alternative development plans are developed. Certain baseline information will help in determining the feasibility of the system to accommodate a proposed use and provide insight into further research needs once alternative development plans are proposed. As indicated in the previous discussion of research needs for the bay, basic research is needed to describe the present hydrologic, biotic, and water quality aspects of the physical system. Basic considerations of wildlife and recreational uses of the bay indicate the general physical system characteristics which must be considered. Once alternative recommended plans are available, greater insight into research needs and priorities is provided. Not yet considered are the social demands for particular uses of the system. As indicated in Table 16, research on the social uses is necessary in the early stages of the planning process. Research at this stage deals with assessing the public's desire for the recreational and wildlife facilities, the use intensities which would be made of the facilities if developed, and the physical system characteristics required for each proposed use. The information gathered on the proposed social uses serves two purposes. First, it establishes the desire of the public for specific developments and, second, the information aids the development of alternative management plans for the system. The research on the social use systems may indicate to the decision- maker that, as with mineral extraction, the desire for the proposed uses indicates that the use should be dropped from further consideration. For example, it may be determined that the demand for power boating was insignificant with the public preferring to use Willard Bay or upstream reservoirs. Further research involving power boating on the bay would thus be eliminated. Elimination of a proposed use due to the lack of demand by society would eliminate the need to gather some of the baseline information. The converse is true if the baseline information indicates to the decision- maker that a proposed use is not feasible. For example, if the baseline data indicated the ionic makeup of the salinity was such that salt water fish could not survive in the bay, research on the social desire for a salt water fishery would be unnecessary. The overlap between research on the physical feasibility and public demand for facilities creates the situation where ongoing research may become useless. This situation is difficult to avoid since the future of proposed uses of the system depends on both demand and feasibility. However, proper timing eliminates situations where research becomes useless because it was not properly sequenced. Such a situation would occur if research on conflicts between power boating and wildlife were undertaken before the demand for boating on the bay was established. For discussion purposes, suppose both wildlife and recreational uses were feasible. That is, the decisionmaker concluded that the public desired both marsh land development for waterfowl and recreational development to facilitate power boating, water skiing, and swimming. Additionally, assume that from the baseline data on the physical system it appeared to the decision- maker that conflicts between present system characteristics and required social use characteristics could be eliminated by altering the system. At this point further research would be improper without considering alternative recommended plans. The alternative plans may already be formulated before this point and have given guidance in the baseline data gathering. * 53 |