OCR Text |
Show PART IV RJTURE DEMAND 6. Credit availability, tenure arrangements, zoning, and taxation policies will not interfere with agricultural adjustments, including farm consolidation or purchases of new technologies. 7» Water, fertilizer, insecticides, etc., required for crop produc- tion and feeds of various types, etc., needed for production of livestock and livestock products will be available at current normal price relation- ships . 8. The quality of water for irrigation in the three target years (1980, 2000, and 2020) will be suitable for irrigation. Domestic consumption of food commodities for each target date was projected by applying projected per capita consumption rates to the ex- pected increase in population. This was the principal determinant of fu- ture production. Quantities were projected which represent industrial and other uses of agricultural products. These were added to domestic consumption to derive projections of total domestic production require- ments. Net demand from the foreign market was added to these require- ments. Per capita consumption was assumed in the stu.dy to remain un- changed after 1980 although rates of change in production factors are different from those for population. The "Regional Interpretation" of OBERS determined crop production needs consistent with livestock output projections. The task force as- signed to this study concluded that livestock output based upon projec- tions of population and per capita consumption were more reliable and important; than the crop output projections. It then determined the pro- jected feed crop production sufficient to produce the projected live- stock output. Allowance was made for imported protein supplement and some feed grains. In summary, an attempt was made to get consistent projections of feed and forage production (hay, pasture, range., corn silage) and livestock output. These were then used to determine pro- jected irrigated acreage requirements. The projections represent an economy where agricultural production is in balance with estimated future demand. Future demand draws on nu- merous analyses and appraisals, some based on formal statistical models, others on trends and a knowledge of factors affecting them. Accordingly, the projections consider important factors which will shape the growth and development in agriculture in years ahead. The comprehensive framework plan is based upon identified needs and requirements, using available resources to meet regionally interpreted OBERS objectives through the year 2020. This plan is described in detail and then is followed by alternative plans that reflect emphasis on dif- ferent uses for the available water supplies and resources. |