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Show Quads GAS SUPPLY ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY 24 __ -----------------------------------, 20 TOTAL GAS DEMAND 16 12 8 4 OL-______ ~ ____________ _L ____________ ~ 1984 1990 2000 2010 1985 GRI Baseline Projection Figure 4 evolutionary technology development arising from experience in the field. Figure 5 summarizes the gas supply quantities that are associated with the 1985 baseline projection. The projected quantities designated "natural gas" include lower-48 production and small quantities of gas produced and consumed in Alaska. 1985 GRI BASELINE PROJECTION OF GAS SUPPLY TRENDS - ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY SCENARIO (Quads) 1984 1990 2000 2010 Natural Gas· 16.6 16.5 15.1 12.1 Advanced Technology (0.3) (2.5) (4.0) ANGTS Gas 1.2 Pipeline Imports 0.8 1.2 3.1 3.9 LNG Imports b 0.2 0.7 1.0 Coal Gas b b b 0.3 SNG from Petroleum 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Total Purchases 17.5 18.0 19.1 18.7 Lease and Plant Fuel 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 Total Supply 18.6 19.0 20.0 19.4 Less Losses and Exports 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 Total Demand 18.0 18.4 19.4 18.9 a Includes natural gas consumed in Alaska, lower-48 conventional and unconventional natural gas. b Less than 0.05 quad. Figure 5 10 Lower-48 natural gas supply is projected to decline gradually through 2000 and somewhat more rapidly thereafter. Natural gas supplies are increasingly supplemented by pipeline imports from Canada and perhaps Mexico, with smaller contributions from the Alaska Natural Gas Transmission System (ANGTS), liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, coal gas, and synthetic natural gas (SNG) from petroleum used to manage peak loads. Together these supplements grow in importance from 5 percent of total purchased gas supplies in 1984 to 21 percent and 35 percent in 2000 and 2010, respectively. Figures 6 and 7 show the projected price trends for all energy sources and for natural gas and supplemental gas supplies with the advanced technology assumption. The advanced technology assumption reduces the projected average gas price by 12 percent in 2000 and 25 percent in 2010. The major share of the reduction in the price in 2000 arises from the deferral of Alaskan pipeline deliveries. The price reduction in 2010 arises principally from lower costs for lower-48 natural gas production due to the slower depletion of the resource base. Lower average domestic prices are also assumed to restrict price increases for imported gas. 1985 GRI BASELINE PROJECTION AVERAGE END-USE ENERGY PRICES IN NATURAL UNITS Residential Natural Gar Electrtcltyb Distillate Fuelc Commercial Natural GaS-Electricityb Distillate Fuelc Residual Fuelc Industrial Natural GaS-Electrlcltyb Distillate Fuelc Residual Fuelc High Sulfur Coald Low Sulfur Coale 8 1984¢/therm. b 1984¢/kWh. c 1984$/bbl. 1984 1990 2000 2010 60.3 60.7 84.6 109." 7.3 8.0 7.6 8.5 45.23 44.02 58.12 79.07 55.8 56.2 79.1 102.8 6.9 7.4 7.4 8.3 38.81 37.60 51.50 72.41 29.03. 29.35 45.74 68.32 43.5 43.6 67.1 88.4 4.9 5.4 5.9 6.8 38.81 37.60 51.50 72.41 29.03 29.35 45.74 68.32 46.07 48.14 62.95 72.51 59.60 67.82 86.18 97.36 d High sulfur coal ranges from 2.25 to 3.04 percent sulfur. Shown in 1984$/ton. e Low sulfur coal ranges from 0.64 to 1.04 percent SUlfur in the Midwest and less than 0.64 percent sulfur in all other regions. Shown in 1984$/ton. Figure 6 |