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Show BURNING ISSUES FOR INDUSTRIES USING NATURAL GAS Robert B. Rosenberg Gas Research Institute Chicago, Illinois, USA Abstract Industrial users of natural gas have three major considerations when evaluating process upgrading or new facilities investments. These are: 1) future availability of natural gas, 2) the cost of these supplies of gas, and 3) the capabilities of natural gas equipment to meet product and productlvity needs. GRI conducts an R&D program on behalf of the utility gas industry that is oriented toward helping to ensure that adequate supplies of economically priced gas are available for the foreseeable future and that end-use equipment is available to provide energy services at the least cost to the consumer. GRI's analytical studies indicate that gas supplies are adequate to meet projected needs until after the turn of the century and that advanced technology will extend these supplies well into the 21st century. GRI's end-use R&D is developing new and improved industrial processes for gas to meet industry's increasing more stringent cost, product quality and productivity demands. TIlE ANNUAL GRI BASELINE PROJECTION of U. S. Energy Supply and Demand provides the context for strategic planning of the GRI research and development program. The detailed and internally-consistent supply and demand projection, the result of a complex modeling effort, serves as one of the key strategic inputs for the selection of research and development projects. The 1985 projection recognizes that important changes are taking place in energy markets. 7 Total primary energy consumption is projected to increase from 77.8 quads in 1984 to 102.2 quads in 2010 or at a rate of 1.1 percent per year (Figure 1). Over the same period GNP grows at 2.5 percent per year. Overall primary energy consumption, therefore, grows at 44 percent of the GNP growth ra te. 1985 GRI BASELINE PROJECTION OF U.S. PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION (Quads) Actual 1984- 1990 2000 2010 Petroleum 31.1 32.3 34.6 35.7 GaSb,c 17.9 18.3 18.7 16.5 (Total Gas Fuels)d (18.0) (18.4) (19.0) (17.3) . Coal 17.2 19.6 24.9 30.9 Nuclear 3.6 6.4 6.5 5.7 Hydro 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.0 Renewablese 4.3 5.1 6.7 9.4 Total n.8 85.7 95.4 101.2 a The March 1985 DOE/EIA Monthly Energy Review (MER, published June 1985) is used as the source of 1984 historical data. Subsequent MERs included a significant shift in gas consumption from the industrial to the residential/commercial sectors. However, total gas consumption showed almost no change. The 1985 GRI Baseline Projection was based on history and reflects the unrevised data . As a result, the 1984 historical information presented in the tables reflects the earlier estimate of historical data. b Excludes synthetic gas from petroleum and coal. c Projected gas consumption shown in the table is consistent with a base technology assumption. d Total gas fuels includes 0.1, 0.3, and 0.8 quad of synthetic gas from petroleum and coal in 1990, 2000, and 2010, respectively. e Includes wood, solar, direct geothermal heat, etc. Figure 1 The rate of growth in total primary energy consumption is projected to decrease in each |