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Show CHAPTER VI CONTINUING MODEL DEVELOPMENT - - A SUMMARY The development of a comprehensive management model, such as that proposed for the water resources system of Great Salt Lake, is a complex process involving the cooperation and close coordination of many groups, disciplines, and activities. Thus, modeling is a synthesis operation which involves the systematic " piecing together" of all relevant information about a system ( Figure 16). The information is brought together in terms of appropriate time and space dimensions and in accordance with its relative importance to the functioning of the system as a whole. Because they possess both great problem solving potential and specific limitations, the capabilities of all models need to be clearly understood by those who use them. In the Great Salt Lake system much information already has been developed ( LAKE COM Report, 1973), yet additional information is still needed ( Table 3). As was indicated earlier, the Economics Committee of the Utah State Legislature recently established a policy advisory committee and an interagency technical team to consider the overall problem of developing management objectives and procedures for Great Salt Lake. A description of the organizational structures and current membership of these two committees is given in Appendix A. The interagency technical team has been divided into a number of task groups, each of which has been assigned the responsibility of identifying both available and needed information in its particular area of activity. It is envisioned that the interagency technical team in particular will be highly involved in the model development project suggested by this report, and that the continuing and integrated efforts of this team will contribute directly to the comprehensive management model proposed for the water resource system of Great Salt Lake. As previously indicated, the next major step which will be undertaken by the current USU Salt Lake project is to complete the physical component of the total system ( first layer of the diagram of Figure 7). Information which is available from many earlier studies will considerably facilitate this activity. Examples are the recent model studies of the causeway by both the University of Utah and the U. S. Geological Survey. In addition, the work conducted by the U. S. Geological Survey in completing a gross hydrologic model of the lake will provide considerable insight into the development of the high- resolution hydrologic- quality model of the lake which will be undertaken as the next step in the USU study. Modeling is a continuous process for which it is difficult to establish a specific end- point Modifications, extensions, and improvements are always possible, and modeling the water resource system of Great Salt Lake will be of no exception." However, in this process it usually is possible to identify specific stages which are associated with particular activities and certain levels of accomplishment. In the USU Salt Lake project, three basic phases were identified ( Figure 17). Phase I has been concerned primarily with problem identification and definition of the direction and scope of activities in the remaining two phases. Phase II will involve model development. It is contemplated that a period of one year will be required to complete the subsystem models for the physical components of the total system. It is further estimated that an additional two years will be needed to add meaningful representations of some of the societal elements which are identified within the first level of the second layer of Figure 7. However, management studies using specific subsystem models will be possible as soon as these component models are developed. Thus, by June 30, 1975, it is expected that realistic predictions of the effects of particular management alternatives on the physical system of the lake will be available. For example, by means of the lake subsystem model, it should be possible to predict the effects of brine concentration levels at particular locations in the lake of the construction of dikes at given sites. The societal dimensions then will be added to the physical components of the model using the multi- objective optimization approach proposed by Haimes and Hall ( 1974), and discussed briefly in Chapter V of this report. The final activity phase shown by Figure 17 ( Phase III) involves use of the overall model for specific management studies. As already indicated, however, management studies for particular subsystems will be initiated as soon as the subsystem models are completed, and in this sense there will be some overlapping between Phases II and III of the project. The overlapping and integrated kinds of activities which are 55 |