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Show APPENDIX F FORECASTING STREAM FLOW Investigations of various methods of forecasting stream flow have been begun. In this connection, the Commission has followed closely the work of the several agencies participating in the Western Snow Conference and the Colorado River Forecasting Committee. The Commission is one of some fifty or more organizations and agencies which contribute to the cooperative enterprise conducted by the Western Snow Conference. The annual reports of this Conference contain many valuable papers and discussions on the subject of forecasting stream flow as well as on related topics such as cloud seeding or other investigations of possible methods for the control of precipitation. Other valuable reference material on the subject of forecasting stream flow is to be found in the Proceedings and Transactions of the American Society of Civil Engineers and in the Transactions of the American Geophysical Union. Copies of papers, some of which are not published for general circulation, and special bulletins printed by Federal and other agencies are also being collected for the library and files of the Commission. Among the latter is "Engineering Monograph No. 2," printed by the U. S. Department of the Interior, entitled "Multiple Correlation in Forecasting Seasonal Runoff," by Perry M. Ford, engineer with the Hydrology Division, Branch of Project Planning, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver. Similar correlation methods have been used for many years in the study of problems in hydrology; and multiple correlation procedures seem to promise the most reliable method by which to arrive at practical results both in forecasting stream flow and in using the inflow-outflow method. One advantage in the use of mathematical correlation, instead of graphical correlation is that the limits between which the actual discharge is most likely to fall can easily be given with greater certainty. A review of the water resources throughout the United States and Canada is published monthly by the U. S. Geological Survey and the corresponding agency of Canada. This four page review for any month is usually received by the middle of the following month. A map of the United States and Southern Canada is given on the first page, which shows at a glance the general conditions as to stream flow. This map shows that the runoff for January 1952 was 25% or more above normal all along the continental divide from Canada across Arizona and into Mexico, while Eastern Colorado and Western Utah had about average stream flow. The discharge of the San Juan is said to have been above normal for January for the first time in two years. -35- |