Water, Energy, and Carbon Management Issues and Assessment Models for Oil Shale Development in the Piceance Basin of the Western Energy Corridor

The Western United States contains rich fossil resources including abundant supplies of oil shale that could be used to develop substantial quantities of transportation fuel, enhancing energy security in the United States. Development of these resources poses significant questions regarding water resources, CO2 production and management, and other environmental and socio-economic impacts. The purpose of this study is to develop and apply a framework of computer models that simulate environmental demands and impacts of an oil shale industry in the upper Colorado River basin, with specific emphasis on the resource rich Piceance Basin of Colorado. The capabilities and analyses here are meant to provide decision makers and stakeholders with tools to evaluate alternative development options and associated impacts. The study supports strategic planning for unconventional fuels development within the Western Energy Corridor by a working group comprised of representatives from industry, government, academia,and national laboratories by providing a simulation platform to address several fundamental questions. • How will demands, impacts and policies for water, carbon, and other resources affect process and project economics and industry development? • What infrastructure (including water supply) is needed to support regional unconventional fuels development under different development scenarios and under potential climate change scenarios? • How do regulatory regimes affect development or investment decisions? • What are the social and economic implications of different energy development scenarios? The scope of this study entails developing simulation capabilities and conducting scenario analyses to evaluate water, carbon, social, and economic requirements and impacts. The multi-scale modeling approach involves a dynamic systems modeling framework in addition to (a) a more detailed model of basin-scale hydrology investigating the spatial relationships of water rights and requirements, reservoir locations, and climate change impacts and (b) a CO2 sequestration performance assessment model to analyze storage capacity and infrastructure requirements and costs for alternative carbon management options. These models are briefly described below and have sections dedicated to their description and associated analyses.