OCR Text |
Show Since in each avalanche region, t as a function of h has its own peculiarity, the corresponding empirical dependence will vary somewhat from the general case. Each dependence can be established from a sufficient amount of observations. Presently, a large portion of the Kirgiz is not under avalanche surveillance so that a computational formula is not initially feasible. While using the proposed method one should take into account, firstly, the snowfall may cease before the avalanche period begins, and secondly, it may vary considerably in its intensity. Therefore, it is necessary to keep track of the snowfall intensity and insert corrections for determining the amount of time to the beginning of the hazard. Having verified that the snowfall intensity is sufficiently intense and steady, it is possible to prepare a forecast either according to the graph or the formula. Only further developments and improvements in forecasting the intensity and duration of the expected snowfall will permit the avalanche forecast to look further ahead into time. In addition to forecasting the time and place of avalanches of freshly fallen snow, it is possible to estimate limits for the volume of snow which will be released. From observations: the larger the intensity of the deposition, the larger the peak volume of any one avalanche and the larger the total volume of snow released by all avalanches ( Fig. 5). 17" |