| Description |
Ecosystems provide many beneficial services to society, but their ability to provide these services will be influenced by climate change. Terrestrial vegetation sequesters significant amounts of carbon, but currently, human activity affects this storage. This research examines changes in vegetation and carbon flux patterns in the northwest United States and southwest Canada using the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Regional and local simulations were conducted for modern and end-of-century 2.6 and 8.5 RCP scenarios. The results include estimates of changes in net ecosystem exchange and variations in different components of the carbon cycle, including fire activity. Regional net ecosystem exchange remained fairly consistent across the three scenarios, though the northern portion exhibited marked spatial heterogeneity of sink and source locations and the southern portion was highly homogeneous. Local simulations showed the effect of changing vegetation on fire activity. One site with consistent woody vegetation experienced little change in fire activity, while the other site experienced a shift from grass- to tree-dominant vegetation with simultaneous changes in fire. The results have implications for land management as they suggest which areas may release or sequester carbon under future climates due to changes in vegetation and other carbon flux components. |
