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Show A TECHNIQUE FOR FORECASTING THE RATE OF SNOWFALL AT ALTA, UTAH Barry C. Nielsen Meteorology Department, University of Utah INTRODUCTION Forecasting and control of avalanche hazard is very dependent upon certain meteorological parameters. The most important of these are snowfall rate, total snowfall from a given storm, moisture content of the snow, air temperatures, and wind. For this reason, a study was initiated at Alta, Utah, in which rather detailed weather observations were taken during storms In order to study winter storm characteristics and their relationship to snowfall and other meteorological parameters at Alta. These relationships are described in this report. A method to semi- objectively forecast snowfall rates and snowfall accumulations for periods of up to 24 hours, using a modification of Harley's method is also discussed. The results of this method are applied to the winter months of January through March 1965. STORM CHARACTERISTICS AND WEATHER The heavy accumulations of snow at Alta are more a function of the duration rather than intensity of the snowfall. Figure 1 illustrates this point. Snowfall rates are often moderate or heavy during end two to four hours following the passage of a front or trough, but at other times the intensity of the snowfall is usually classified as light. Therefore, it is not only important to be able to forecast the rate of snowfall, but also the duration. |
