Areawide and local effects of tar sands development at the Sunnyside site in Utah: A socioeconomic analysis

The Combined Hydrocarbon Leasing Act of 1982 (Public Law 97-78) provides guidelines for converting federal oil and gas leases to combined hydrocarbon leases in Special Tar Sands Areas (STSAs). The STSAs are designated by the U.S. Department of the Interior as areas that contain substantial deposits of tar sands. Under a combined hydrocarbon lease, tar sands can be developed in addition to oil and gas. Before an oil and gas lease can be converted, however, the socioeconomic consequences of the combined hydrocarbon lease must be evaluated. This report evaluates the socioeconomic consequences of developing the tar sands in the Sunnyside STSA in east-central Utah. Figure S.l shows the STSA and the counties that surround it. Effects of tar sands development were examined on several levels: areawide, county, census county division (CCD), and community. Effects were projected over the 20-year period from 1985 to 2005 and are described for the five "window years" of 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005. To prepare this analysis, a four-step procedure was followed. First, the existing social and economic conditions of the area were described. Second, conditions were projected for the 20-year period under the assumption that no tar sands resources are developed. Third, the proposed tar sands developments were described. The descriptions included estimates of (1) production levels and (2) the work force required to mine the tar sands and to construct and operate the accompanying retort facilities. Descriptions were prepared for three scenarios; one assumed a proposed level of tar sands development, another assumed a partial conversion development, and a third assumed a low, or unitized, level of development. Finally, the impacts of these developments were projected for the 20-year period and then analyzed. In addition to tar sands development, the development of other energy resources (coal mines and an off-tract tar sands project) in the same area within Utah were examined. The socioeconomic impacts of these developments were estimated and added to the projected impacts of the tar sands developments. Two socioeconomic models were used to collect and analyze data. The Utah Process Economic and Demographic (UPED) impact model was used to project aggregate Impacts under the baseline conditions, the three scenarios for tar sands development, and the two scenarios for development of other energy resources. After these impacts were projected, the Spatial Allocation Model (SAM) was used to distribute the impacts among the communities, CCDs, and counties. The types of effects examined include, for example, impacts on population; number of households; employment; wages; per capita income; and elements of the public and private infrastructure such as housing, education, health care, and utilities.