The impact of paid family leave on fertility rates in the U.S.

This analysis seeks to determine the impact of paid family leave (PFL) laws on fertility rates across the United States, where, unlike in other industrialized nations, no federal mandate exists. The study focuses on the six states that implemented PFL laws prior to 2021 and explores how these policies influence fertility decisions. Employing a robust regression analysis on annual, state-level data, the research scrutinizes fertility trends over a period containing the implementation of these laws. By leveraging census data and other socioeconomic indicators, the study examines whether state PFL laws correlate with changes in fertility rates or have any causal impact on them, offering insights into the demographic implications of such policies. The results of the analysis show that decreasing trends in fertility rates are largely driven by younger age groups and people of Hispanic or Latino ethnicity. The results of the event study show that in the states where PFL laws were implemented, there was a 3.27 average percentage point increase in fertility rate in the six years that followed implementation. As more states implement PFL laws in the U.S., further research should be conducted to strengthen the claim that PFL laws cause an increase in fertility rates.