| Description |
Research has demonstrated that polling in American elections has accurately predicted election results within a reasonable margin of error. However, due to the nature of the electoral college system, small deviations from polling averages in important states can result in large, surprising underdog victories. This has caused many in the American public to lose faith in polling and polling institutions, calling for the creation of better predictive models for ideological shifts in the country. We propose to utilize state ballot measure results to understand the correlation between the shifts in how American voters swing politically down ballot and the results of presidential elections. In particular, we want to determine whether the former can act as a precursor for how Americans will vote for president in future elections. This is conducted by labeling state ballot measures as Republican or Democratic party leaning, measuring whether the bills passed and by what margin, and correlating these scores with future presidential election results. Even if the results were not conclusive, our research found that ballot measures are correlated with future election results, making room for further studies using more and better data. This research demonstrates how data scientists and researchers may further use non-conventional data metrics to support data models that can better predict election results, especially in elections that are close calls as recent American presidential elections have been. |
