Forecasting the probability of failure of Thailand's financial companies in the Asian financial crisis

The financial crisis in Southeast Asia has gained widespread attention.1 In particular, the financial problems in Thailand since early February 1997 have been a major focus of this attention. Even enthusiasts for the McKinnon-Shaw arguments for financial liberalization (eliminating financial repression) to accelerate economic development must be wary of liberalization and seek the knowledge to limit financial crises, if, as critics say, liberalization contributes to developing countries' periodic costs on the order of 10%-20%, even 50%, of gross domestic product (GDP) to recover from banking crises.