The coming boom in Utah's school age and college age populations: state and county scenarios

Population analysts have for some time anticipated a significant increase in the school age population (5 through 17 years of age) of Utah beginning around 2004 and extending for at least a decade. At this point the question is not whether the boom will materialize, but rather, the exact timing, magnitude, and geographical distribution of the increases in the school age and college age (18 through 24 years old) populations within the state. This paper is an exploration of these issues. The acceleration in the growth rate of the school age population, which follows a decade of flat-to-slow growth during the 1990s, is primarily attributable to an increase in the number of women in childbearing years.