Analysis of the impact of the proposed Canyonlands National Park on the economy of the surrounding area: section 5

Fifth section of a preliminary typescript report prepared by Robert R. Edminster, Associate Professor in the University of Utah's Department of Economics, and Osmond L. Harline, Director of the university's Bureau of Economic and Business Research, dated January 23, 1962. Section Five has title: Projections of tourism and its economic consequences.

SECTION 5. PROJECTIONS OF TOURISM AND ITS ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES The most important task in assessing the impact of the proposed Canyon- lands National Park on the economy of the surrounding area is the projection of future tourist use. , The Difficul ty of Precise Projection The problem of estimating the magnitude of future tourist visits is a difficult one. Statistically speaking the difficuLty springs' from the uniqueness of the event. One of the arguments advanced' by the proponents of the park is that the canyonlands of Utah are quite different from any other scenic attraction contained in the existing system of NationaL Parks. Insofar as this is true there , . is no analagous area that provides a sure of tourist visitation of the new park. guide to the probable resuL ts in terms A number of eLements bearing on the probLem can be mentioned and a quaLitative assessment of their importance made, but onLy with difficuLty can a precise quantitative weight be assigned to each element, Several exceLLent studies of the character of the demand for out- door recreation exist but the information is not derived in such a yield predictionfor a specific tourist attraction. way as to Lack of expression of a high level of interest in the type of tourist attractions of the Canyonlands, for example, is not inconsistent with a high rate of growth of visitors. The method foLLowed in this report is first aspects of a to, discuss briefly qualitative number of variables bearing on future park attendance; second, to BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH lJNIVERSITY OF UTAH 24 List the specific assumptions adopted as a basis of projection; and third to estimate the probable range within which future tourist visits to the Canyonlands NationaL Park may reasonabLy be expected to fall. The Initial Advantage of the Designation "National Park" Undoubtedly the mere setting aside of a scenic or outdoor recreationarea and designating it as a National Park has marked view of attracting tourists. It gains the immediate press devoted to vacation travel. aware advantages from the point of attenion of that part of the An important part of the public not previously of the area or only vaguely so, becomes interested and may include the new park in vacation plans, By the time the new park has developed its facilities for handling visttors, it appears as a distinctively colored portion of road maps where it cannot fail to catch the eye of a tourist traveling in the vicinity, In general, the existence of the initial advantage springs from the very high quality that the National Park Service has been able to maintain thus far in the location of new parks. Naturally the name "National Park" cannot by itself assur the success of a new park if it does not have intrinsic attractions and adequate facilities. All tourist studies agree on the importance of word-of-mouth advertising, which can, doubtless, work adversely if the park has little merit from the tourist point of view. new Because. evidence quite clearly indicates that the ' park does have tourist appeal it probably will not have to wait until word of its existence and its merit spread sLowly. Everglades National Park, for example, had 206,773 visitors, the sixth yearl after its establishment. lIt is assumed that five years will be necessary to develop access and facilities for the Canyonlands National Park. , BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH' UNIVERSITY 01' UTAH 25 Distance From Major Population Centers Virtually all tourists visiting the Canyonlands will come by car. It is therefore pertinent to examine the distance they would have to traveL from popuLation centers, from main traffic streams such as major trans -continentaL . highways, and from other tourist attractions (see Table 5.1). The reLative remoteness of the Canyonlands from the major popuLation centers means that it will get very Little use by tourists making one-day or even week-end trips (aLthough Denver, and Salt Lake City arewithin feasibLe weekend driving range). On the other hand this remoteness from population concentrations does not seem to have prevented heavy tourist use in other cases where the intrinsic value of the tourist attraction was high, e. g., CarLsbad Caverns and Mesa Verde. It shouLd be noted that the vacationing tourist can pLan a trip to Canyonlands that wouLd take him to a large number of other scenic or recreationaL attractions. As far as attracting the interstate traveler from nearby traffic flows, Table 5.2 gives the average number of cars using nearby main highways (see also attac?ed maJ?). For purposes of comparison--a major transcontinentaL route-- u. S. 40 is included in the lower portion of Table 5.2. The traffic flow along U. S. 40 was the souree of some 142,000 visitors to Dinosaur NationaL Monument in 1960. in It wilL be noted that the out of state flow is heavier on U. S. Highway 50 the vicinity of Canyonlands than on U. S. 40 near Dinosaur National Monument. It is, however, less than the traffic fLow along the Wendover e-Salt Lake BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF UTAH City con- 26 nection, the main route to the coast. It shouLd also be borne in mind that U. S. 50-6 will become Interstate Highway 70 probably within the next five years and wit L provide the shortest route from Denver to Southern California and the fastest route from Chicago to Southern California. It can thus be expected that it wiLL experience a substantial increase in use. The routes to the proposed park from the south are aLso important to future CanyonLand visitations. At the present time an improved road is virtually completed from Tuba City, Arizona to Kayenta., Arizona and the road from Kayenta, Arizona to Shiprock, New Mexico wilL be compLeted by the end of the summer of 1962. This will provide an alternative to Interstate 70 as a shorter route from Denver and Chicago than two roads p:IesentLy exists. Th.es together shouLd sharpLy increase the flow of traffic through the Southern Utah-Northern Arizona country and give rise to a substantial increase in the number of tourists visiting jhe parks and monuments while en route to other primary destinations. In sum, it does not seem that the remoteness of the proposed park constitutes serious barrier to a substantial flow of tourists given features of the park that are attractive to tourists. Canyonlands National Park will be located -. within 50 miles of a major flow of interstate traffic that should be sufficient, if the Dinosaur National Monument is any criterion, to generate 150,000 visitors a year almost immediately upon the construction of a good, hard, srfaced road connecting the entrace with the existing highways. Upon the completion o Interstate Highway 70, the situation will be even more favorable. BUREAU 0,. ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH UNI'IIERSITY OF UTAH 27 The distance from population centers in Califotnia, usually the most important source of out-or-state tourists, is a resistance factor but one that is , . in part overcome by the proximity of other tourist attractions. Regional Development of Parks and Monuments It has been suggested that it is possible to develop a regional system of parks and monuments and other scenic and recreational facilities in Southern Utah, Northern Arizona, and the immediately adjacent areas of Colorado and New Mexico. This region would include the parks, monuments and other recreational developments shown in Table 5.3. TABLE 5.3 NATIONAL PARKS, MONUMENTS AND OTHER SCENIC AND RECREATIONAL FACILITIES IN SOUTHERN UTAH, NORTHERN ARIZONA AND THE IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT AREAS OF COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO National Parks National Monuments Grand Capi toL Reef Hovenweep Zion Arches Mesa Verde Natural Bridges Bryce Other Monument VaLLey GLen Canyon NationaL Recreation Area Dadhorse State Park Rainbow Bridge Canyon De CheLLy Grand Canyon Navojo Pi pe s prings Wupatki The total number of visits recorded by the National Parks and Monuments in this region in 1960 was 2,918,285. The effect of this combination of tourist attractions on the rate of tourist use of the proposed Canyonlands Park over and BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF UTAH 28 above the infLuence of the 'present existence of these tourist attractions must be This will depend upon (1) the construction of an improved system considered. of highways connecting these points and (2) the Linking together of separate, attractions in the minds of potentiaL visitors. With respect to the first point, it can be stated that such a connecting . ... highway system aLready exists but that the roads may not be such as to attract any Large number of tourists. In Arizona the highway from_ Tuba City to Monument Valley is now a good hard-surfaced road, markedly improving the route from the, South Rim of Grand Canyon and from the GLen Canyon Recreation Area to the Canyonlands in Utah. As has been mentioned, Interstate Highway 70 will probably be completed by the time the facilities could be constructed in the Canyonlands'. This shortens the distance by fir st-class highway from Bryce to Zion to the proposed park. However, in the area from Interstate 70 south to the Tuba City-Monument Valley road, there are no major east-west through roads " projected to shorten the distance between the western group of tourist attractions and those in the East, e.g., Canyonlands. The possible exception to this is the improvement and shortening of the road from Capitol Reef NationaL Monument to Hanksville. From the point-of -view of CanyonLands tourism, the most beneficial road construction wouLd be a route t?t shotened thdtstance from GLen Canyon r • National Recreation Area or one that provided a more direct connection between southeastern Utah and the Bryce"'ZiC!:Sn Orand Canyon North Rim area on th West. ... BURE ... U OF ECONOMIC ...·ND BUSINESS RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF UTAH 29 Regarding the second point, the creation of an awareness on the part of the public of attractions of the whole area, doubtless giving the region a single name, such as the suggested "Golden Circle" and stressing the unity of the area would result in a general increase in use of each of the features. For example, one very considerable advantage that might well be stressed in literature avatlable to tourists at the various information centers is the scenic loop. Beginning, for example, at the South Rim' of Grand Canyon the tourist could visit a wide range of attractions each within easy driving distance from the preceding recreation area and each with camping facilities. would take him from Monument Valley (with a possible side National Recreation Area), The trip tip to Glen Canyon Canyonlands, and over either the Hanksvltle road (via Capitol Reef National Monument) or by Interstate 70 to Bryce and Zion. number of short, scenic trips off the main route would be available , A e.g., Natural Bridges National Monument, and, if he wanted a change of pace, camping in the forsted high country of the La Sal and Abajo Mountains or. the Aquarius Plateau'. Suggestions to make the tourist aware of the attractiveness of integrated multiple park vtstts to the region are, however, beyond the scope of this report. Climate of the Area Canyonlarids National Park, if established, will be the only truly desert . National Park in the country. It is therefore verydifficult to estimate the , " attractiveness of the desert environment for large numbers of tourists. What this environment Involves can be seen by a glance at the climatological table BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF UTAH 30 (Table 5.4). Quoting the Weather Bureau description of nearby Moab: The climate is of a desert type with Low relative hunidity, Low annual rainfaLL and abundant sunshine. Summers are characterized by hot and dry weather. During this season most high readings are With few exceptions, tem­ or have in occurred each year. Temper1000 higher peratures atures 1040 or hotter can be expected in about one of every two years. in the 90's and Lows in the 50's or 60's. Winters are dry and cold , but usually not severe. is generaLLy very light, as Snowfall averaging onLy nine inches per year, but much as 74 inches has been reported in one winter season. There are two separate rainfaL L seasons even .though the annuaL precipitation averages only nine inches. The first occurs during March and April when storms from the Pacific Ocean are moving through the region more frequently than at other periods of the year. The second .ratnfall season is in late summer and early faLL. During the first part of this period, i, e. in August and September, the area is occasionally subjected to thunderstorms associated with moist air masses moving in from the Gulf of Mexico. In October, the onLy month with an average precipitation amount greater than one inch, most of the moisture fal Ls in connection with the development of storms over the Southern Plateau region, Much of the Canyonlands Park area lies at an elevation of 1,500 to 2,000 feet above Moab and temperatures in these higher elevetions can be expected to be from five to seven degrees cooLer than Moab. nights' are comparatively cool. . It will be noted that even in July the Summer days are hot but not oppressiveLy so • Estimate of Visits to Canyonlands National Park Over the past ten years the number of visitors to major nationaL parks and monuments of Southern Utah -Northern Arizona has grown at an average . .., annuaL rate of 6.88 per cent. . Bryce 1S the onLy one of these that .has had a growth rate of less than 5 per cent.· The combined rate for all national parks BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND B.USINESS RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF UTAH 31 west of the Mississippi 6.57 per cent. excepting Platt, Hot Springs and MKinley hs been From the point of view of the proposed Canyonlands Park the of Arches National Monument is most instructive. case From 1952 to 1957 the visitations to Arches were relatively stable at around 30,000 per year. In 1957 an attractive entrance to the Monument and a visitor center were constructed. Perhaps even more iportant, a well-marked system of improved roads was constructed within the Monument. The .resulting increase in tourist use is shown by the rates of increase in visitation: 1957 to 1958, 50.8 per cent; 1958 to 1959, 48.6 per cent; 1959 to 1960, 20 0 per cent; .. and 1960 to 1961, 25 per cent. Arches is only about 30 mi. les from the proposed park. Though containing different specific types of land features, it is similar in being desert country and having the same climate. Furthermore, the experience at Arches seems to be borne out by other areas where a major e .g, , change in facilities including access roads has been made, Dinosaur National Monument and Mesa Verde National Park. The initial growth rate in each case after major mprovements have taken place, has been very high and after a few years the park or monument has tended to stabilize and to grow at approximately the same rate as other parks and monuments in the geographic region. The projections of future visitations are shown in Table S. S and are based on several assumptions. First, that five years after the creation of the Canyonlands National Park the main facilities for the accommodation of BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF UTAH 32 visitors will have been completed. These facilities will include, (a) a hard- surfaced highway from the Park's north entrance to U. S. 160 north of Moab, Utah; and (b) a hard-surfaced road from the Park's south entrance to U. S. 160 near Monticello, Utah. Second, it is assumed that the interior deveLopment of the Park wiLL be completed substantially as described in the "Suggested Development of . -. the Canyonlands National Park" press release of the Interior Department J January 15, 1962. Third, that the boundaries of the Park are those designated by the same press release. Fourth, it is also assumed that Interstate Highway 70 will be completed to Salina, Utah, within 5 to 8 years of the creation 'of the Park, and that the facilities of the Glen Canyon National Recreational Area will be completed in approximately the same time span. The estimate of 100,000 visitors in the first year of fuLL operation of the Park (that is five years from its creation by Congress) seems quite con- servative, It should be remembered that CapitoL Reef National Monument, difficult of access and relativ,ely unknown, had 102,493 visitors in 1960. Dinosaur National Monument adjacent to a smaLLer traffic fLow than that near Canyonlands and with a shorter season had 142,403 visitors in 1960. Given the nationaL publicity attenaant 011 the creation of a new park. there will be an annual flow ,of visitors building' up concurrently with park construction during the initial five-year period. BUREAU OF ECONOMIC ANO BUSINESS RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF UTAH 33 The annual rates of increase, it will be noticed, are considerably more con- servative than the rates for Arches National Monument in the three" years after 1957. With respect to dollar expenditures, income and employment based on the attendance figures, they are, of course, dependent on the stability of relationships derived from the years prior to 1961. I Should these relationships change, however, they would in the main tend to change in a" direction that would increase the figures shown. For example, expenditures per person are much more likely to rise secularly with rising increases of income in the United " States than to faLL. The multiplier (the ratio of total generated income to direct- related income) will tend to rise if the entire area develops economically and provides more products for itse lf rather than buying them from other areas. ) BUREAU OF ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS RESEARCH UNIVERSITY OF UTA 31 Economic !ffect of y'rk _Ed_hy J;I;xpf'.oditures and Income Created __ ._., ....... _- ----- ----" ----.-..--- The for f'(\,2lst -=-,f the economic effect of the creation of C r 1 ycr ;Hd s r Jot i ona ! Park (as de"r';rib)d if. rhe suggested plan released by the Nat iona I Park Service) is r:o'-ltainee .n Tables 6 and )-7. ref ilts Ie Frobab. cap be surr mar ized The method of computation and the main follows: as consr ruct ion costs (mainly access roads) and ope rat ional expenses (oalar iec) during the first f ive years are estimated at $7. 112,600. expenditure -vould (See T: 108 5 2. 6. v e su lr in local income lines 1, z . a nd payments (wages) 1 This of $2. :50:700 3). Tourist r-xpenditu re s were estimated by forecasting v i s it at ions fo r the first twenty years a fu r corn plet ion of the initial construction period (five years) and multi plying thi s Corne-rs 211';.8. Lake City 3. or by the estimated expenditure per tourist in the Four Additional expenditures in adjacent locations. Grand [i.nr t ion were not estimated Personal income directly created f'.g., Salt (See Table 5-) and 4-6) (mainly wages; including wages of self- employ-d) rcsulring from these expenditures (27. I per cent of each dollar) wer e 4. calculated from the d at a in the Total income. di r ecr ly and (::':J'_'nt hat out of input-output table. indirectly created was e st irnar ed by takirg into (·very dollar of wages earned from sales IRE'·e-.f[,:1 Pld!catcs tha wages represent cf cons! uU;r)'i COHtS. SURrAL 01' E::::0NOI!I( AND UNIVU?SlfV UTAH tourists. approx i-nar=Iv 21 per cent BUSINESS RESEUlCH OF to 3') consr ruct ion , re spenr or hy Park Service employees, rr eare it is estimated that total with the new.pa r k will amount to ex pend itur e s in $8.6 million and that this sum w i ll directly $2.6 million of persona] income (mainly wages) in the Four Corners area. incorne fraction (about 3t; per centj was (Table .)-0. line 10)· locally cr-eating further local inc 0 fTH.' During the first five years, conner r ion a As this income is spent in the area, The total of income created, . approximately $4.1 million. first four years, it will create additional directly and indirectly, will amount to About half of this income will be generated in the mainly by the cons: r: ., ion expenditures of the Nar ional Park Service. By the tenth year of operation (after completion of the const ruction phase) expenditures by the National Park Service for operating the pa r k ami by tourists visiting the park will amount to $S. 7 million. should be add ing, profit, dIrectly and indi rer r ly interest and rent received , Thus, the proposed national park $2.S million per year to the wages, by persons in the Four Corners area. twentieth year of operation, a year of income directly and indirectly generated. from the means fairly conservative estimate is $.S.() million per $10.7 rm l l i on of additional sales for the the whole a r ea because of a ll , park vi s it o r s . r era i) III . but by no park. the L'stillldtc fur till' I i r s: fig-lire, primarily and ..;ecvic'c sectors of Th,- greater part of this. bec-ause of the difficulty of arfl"IIH; lt .ury exact a rr-: This will he derived will he in tilt__.: Lilah "-(Hlfltlt.:' bo rde r mg on till' 1 should be- I10ll'd tllCll l x.th By the [!\'l ve-a r s and for These (.xclud('c1 c;:1['egories • 36 i . Expenditures by private individuals or firms for expansion of tourist fac il iti es outside of the park boundaries, e.g., motels, guest ranches, service stations. 2. the Expend itures on c onst r u, t i on and operations of consessiona ires within park both for lodging and guides, etc .'3. restaurants and for boating, jeep trips" horses, . Expend itu res by t he Nat ional Pa rk Se rvrce for expansion of rae ilrt ie s and for t-he opening up (\I audltlonai use areas as the tourist flow increases. COlI r se of the fi r st twenty y ea r s of ope r ar i.»: National Park Se rvice Inro r io r , ']dd itional investment In the by the according to an announce me nt hv the Secretary of the tllight \\t'll amount to another $10 to 'f, 1.'3 m i l l ion if autho r izcd by Congre ss , It has been e sti mared in this report, that all tourist" visitors to the Gr and- San juan County area arc presently Arc h l' <-; $1.2 11:1! I' J r 1 ( ) t. ,J I ' pr(}p(,vd CcliI'. \ . , •. \ s 1 () r 1L I m c n t vis it 0 r s, <-11'. pend ing appro x i mate ly 2. 1111')1 if was (' s t i III a ted. This cnmparc) with total 'nl.J.IHJ :\01 i ona l Pa rk A' >; •. , r! AN. I,·,\.t r: T'y "ll'<;IN' S5 ,), )1 A., \ (."H: pt 11 dill g d bo II t expenditures of visitors to the estimated as d r (:' ,1 by this report, Hf<;r."R.H in the l st . ,C)th, . MAP 5-1 NEARBY MAIN HIGHWAYS TO THE PROPOSED CANYONLANDS NATIONAL PARK .. , TABLE 5.1 APPROXIMATE DISTANCE OF POPULATION CENTERS AND SCENIC OR OTHER LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTH ENTRANCE OF CANYONLANDS NATIONAL PARK Miles Population Centers Utah Moab 25 Salt Lake City 260 Colorado 392 Denver California Los Angeles (via Las Vegas, Zion National Park, Bryce National Park, and Capitol Reef National Monument) (via Flagstaff, Arizona) San Francisco 832 874 994 Scenic or Other Locations Utah Arches National Monument 25 Connection with Interstate Highway 70 at Crescent Junction, Utah 43 Capitol Reef National Monument 147 Natural Bridges National Monument 148 Monument Valley National Monument 178 Bryce National Parka 262 Z ion National Parka 312 Colorado Hovenweep National Monument 150 Mesa Verde National Park 199 Arizona G len Canyon National Recreation Area (Page, Arizona) 278 Grand Canyon National Park South Rim (via Monument Valley) 322 North Rima 391 aVia proposed route for new Interstate Highway 70, see Map. TABLE 5.2 AVERAGE DAILY TRAFFIC OF PASSENGER CARS FOR SELECTED MAIN HIGHWAYS IN THE STATE OF UTAH Highway 1950 1960 Percentage Change 1950-1960 Out of Out of Out of Total Utah State Total .537 790 123.9 106.5 111.8 750 1168 178.7 131.5 14604 Number Location Utah State Total Utah State U.S. 50 6 U.S. 50, 6 6 Miles East of Crescent Junction 113 260 373 253 7 Miles West of Crescent Junction 150 324 474 418 U.So 160 32 Miles North of Monticello 141 127 268 317 338 675 124.8 16601 15109 U.S. 160 18 Miles South of Crescent Junction 123 148 271- 387 343 730 214.6 13108 169.4 Utah 24 45 Miles South of Green River 9 -4 13 129 4 133 1,33303 0 923.1 U.S. 40 Colorado State Line- 220 469 689 200 718 918 -901 53.1 33.2 U.So 40 10 Miles East of Wendover 269 776 1,045 489 1, 155 1,644 81.7 4808 5703 Source: Utah State Department of Highways, Traffic on Utah's Highways 1950 and 1960 editions '" '" TABLE 5.4 CLIMATOLOGICAL SUMMARY Means and Extremes for Period 1926 Station at Moab Utah Temperature (Op) - 1955 Ground ELevation 4,000 Feet Precipitation Totals (in ) Mean number of das i Snow , Extremes Means Daily Daily Maxi Month - mum Mini - mum = Month Ly - Record Great- Precip. 900 320 320 00 high- Low- est .10 inch and and and and or more above beLow below below est 29 29 30 Jan 4203 5002 61.2 7208 1703 2908 67 Mar 0 Apr May June , 81.9 23..4 3L2 4005 4706 3608 4602 5607 Year est Year Mean ====== 29 Febo 72 85 30 30 0.63 0060 30 1950 -24 1954+ -10 1953 1950+ 9 15 1930 0069 1929 1931 0082 1928 0080 640L8 91 101 1951 1936 37 1939+ 0 50 1953 43 1928 28 1929 daily 0.68 1.20 0080 0099 Year Mean 30 30 30 30 30 1935+ 3.7 L5 1927 2 0 3 30 1 Jane 0 1 24 1 Feb. * 005 3 0 19 0 Mar" 1930 T 3 * 0 5 0 * 0 Apr May June 1926 T 2 6 1.12 1927 0 2 20 0 0 0 L28 1937 0 2 30 0 0 0 3 27 0 0 0 2 11 0 0 0 JuLy Aug" Sept. 1.85 7305 July Aug, Sept, 98..4 9502 8609 6203 5908 8004 77 05 III 108 1952 40 1931 0086 L50 1939 0 5Ll 6900 104 1950 28 1934 0091 L81 1927 0 Octo 7403 Nov. 5602 1952 7 0 Octo 1943 008 0 * 24 0 Nov" 1926 2,,1 2 0 1 29 1 Dec. 806 27 94 5 138 3 Year 1952 2 1931 0069 -11 1945 0.69 0.88 0098 -24 1930 9000 L85 1926 4408 1909 32.4 Year 7L3 3905 55.4 113 June 1936 May Jano T A verage Length of record 1 years Trace an amou-nt too small to measure + Also on earlier dates months or years * Less than one half, Source: 0 2 1929 Deco (a) 2 80 68 L07 !i> T 94 1932 lAO 1949 5607 4L4 15 0 0 G So Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau in cooperation with Utah Committee on Industrial and Employment Planning and University of Utah Bureau of Economic and Business Research, U 0 .. 0 5504 0,,66 2 1929 9106 e Month }Q 113 3901 26.5 Min, Record (a) 0 Temj2eratures Max9 SLeet F TABLE 5.6 ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF CONSTRUCTION EXPENDITURES AND TOURIST VISITS ASSOCIATED WITH CANYONLANDS NATIONAL PARK FOR THE FIVE YEAR CONSTRUCTION PERIOD AND THE FIRST TWENTY YEARS OF THE OPERATION PERIOD (Thousands of Dollars) Operation Period Construction Period Expenditures and Income 1. Construction 2. Personal Expenditure Second Third Fourth Fifth First Fifth Year Year Year Year Year Year Year . Tenth Ftfteenth Twentieth Year Year Year $1,306.0 $827.7 $2,029. 7 $1,048.5 $1,291.2 (See kern 9 below) (See Item 9 below) Incomeb Directly Created by Construction Expenditures ,). Wage and Salary Expenditures of the Nat io na I Par k Se"" i, .., .; 309.5 196.2 481.0 248.5 306.0 44.5 94.5 127.5 162.0 181. 0 175.0 437.5 875.0 1,750.0 3,874.1 5,433.6 7,620.9 10,688.6 47.4 118.6 237.1 474.3 1,049.9 1, 472.5 2,065.3 2,896.6 674.3 1,299.9 1,722.5 2,315.3 3, 146.6 ,., Ope rat: Of' S 4. Total Expenditure s by Y 1::)1(u1'5 to New First Park $ 200. os s 250.0a$ 250.oa$ 250. oa $ 250.oa 5. Personal Incomeb Directly Created by Tourist Expenditures 6. Total Income Created Directly (Items 2, 3 and 5) 354.0 290.7 655.9 529.1 724.1 c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c c 1,078.9 2,079.8 2,756.0 3,704.5 5,034.6 7. Induced Private Inve stment and Related Expenditures Outside the Park 8. Investment and Expenditures of Concessionaires within the Park Boundaries 9. Further Investment Expenditures of National Park Service After First Five Year Period 10. Total Income Directly and Indirectly Created (Item 6 X 1. 6) 566.4 465.1 1,049.4 846.6 aArbitrary estimate bWages and salaries, rent and profit of unincorporated enterprise CNot possible to estimate at this time 1,158.6 ,II TABLE 5.7 TOTAL EXPENDITURES AND INCOME CREATED DIRECTLY AND INDIRECTLY FOR CANYONLANDS NATIONAL PARK FOR THE FIVE YEAR CONSTRUCTION PERIOD, THE FIRST TEN YEAR OPERATING PERIOD, THE SECOND TEN YEAR OPERATING PERIOD, AND THE 25 YEAR CONSTRUCTION AND OPERATING PERIOD (Thousands of Dollars) Five Year Total 25 Year First Second Ten Year Ten Year Construction Construction Operating Operating and Operating Period Period Period Period Total Expenditures= 8,600.1. 40,796.7 82,827.6 130,736.9 Total Income Directly Created 2,553.8 12,732.6 24,268.8 39,555.2 4,086.1 20,372.2 38,830.0 63,288.3 Total Income Directly and Indirectl y Created aIncludes construction expenditures of the National Park Service for first five years, wage and salary payments to Park Service personnel and expenditures of visitors to park (see Items 1, 3, and 4 of Table 5.6). Does not include an estimate for construction by Park Service other than the first five years. The Secretary of the Interior has announced that this will be approximately $10 to $13 million in addition to $7.1 million announced for the first five years. The figures do not include investment and related expenditures made by private individuals for motels; retail establishments, etc., which may be in the region, induced by the establishment of the park; nor does it include investment and operating expenditures by concessionaires within the park. TI'-j!E QUE§TRON OF MULTIPLE USE OF THE !PARK AREA §EenON 6" Senate EHH 287 as presently drawn 0/23/62 provtdes for non-conrorrn to it cation under general regulation by the Secretary of the Inte rtor n No ex "" - pHcH mention 1S wade of mine ral s not subject Ito location such as perroleum H is nor the pr-ovince of thts report to suggest the extent [0 which one pos stbl e use of the resource area may lessen the val ue of other uses I Since conclusions of thi s sort rest on judgement as to the effect l)f p say p othe r val ues which the Na tional Pa rk Se rvi c€ is mining on charged with scenic values or en preservtng The economist has no particular clatrn Ito expe rtne s s in this realm , Where however Interdependence of the va riables is not invotved he made considercd mated, Thi s sho'dd Table 6nL as statements can This is to say when alternative uses rather than joint , UBe§ are r , the present probable value of the alternatives not 2111 be taken as a recommendatton of exclusive evaluarton of lhej22s§ibW_!y rhar a oe esti use but merely Val ue in this plus royalty payments to !l' e L)ltate of Utah. E H were cer ta in that such an on field existed, its e s ti rr ated value in these terms WOTL.lrjl be .$73c 2 mi ll ion from the beginning of the opc+ation until the ott I!tUIllEAU 01" ... major oil Iield will be (HSCDVered ii1 the area within the confines of the proposed park context me21T;) local incorne s created can F-CONOMIC AND eUSINESS $ElI!lICH UNIVI!P.SITV OF UfAH hut rhf' oil ned case has been chose-n for examination because of the r-elatively -:(':f\c--:n 1f,covt'rins in southea ste rn Utah, including a major Ii el d Aneth, and , The l'03111.':(' clement can be likened to that pUf5S"nhl,::, from the toss of a coin, In one s irr ati on he:d corn-: wo rth \)1' u.,t· it would have m i l l i on , potential (mayor may not cxi st ) ()i I propm;ed park, a Si.nl'f'f (certainty) i:--. etc-arty more $lO() hut who would pay more than 1S0 fur the second? imila rl y 9 with 3 the .c.re( promised $100 if eithpT head s or tail s come up" He fur(' the toss the first alte rnative up, ylldahl{l=H i:", you are value to the' field undertying if it were c e r tain that an 'Ai1('th" field existed locality and the State of Utah of approximately $7302 howeve r , i ts existence' is highly unc e r ta i n , i t has a value of Thu.: if the l' hoi cc \V lTV berw ven dcvel opi ng a ua ti one 1 pat' k. in the area \IV 1i"JI would ')I(;:; the better usc from the point of v i c-w .'''' of th« I tlUSINESS RFSEARCH Il at r o.u munitv? If f1"'t' ('.RIse is, r., however, stronger than that rhe income stream .tf;Rle'I.L , Even if it we're certain that produced by both over a given period of time" .\"7. "'U head )f the magnitude of Aneth would produce during .ts development 8lli1\(1· economic life about $73 rni ll ion of local benefits and thereafter would be pz.:l1d usted, ':." Or: a re iativel y "'o JPBL during the modest scal e of operation the loca I income period of construcrton and first twenty years of the period c oper atron would amount to about $39 minion, but in another 11 years he excected to go on Natu ra lly , the ... hle produced producing income into the indef'intte future wHh_E2 0 optimum si tuation would be to have both the oi! field and park if neither OW" decreases the value of the other 0 It is understood that CXpl,;.,..tCr-i talks ave been undertaken by the parties involved in an attempt to r=s: bE' this difficult but important issue of whether non-conforming park uses would be advisable in thi s pa r ticula r si tuarion , But, as h3S been pointed out tl.is poasibil i ry is outside the competence of the econom i st and therefore t h i r (' po r" . BUREA') OF FCONOMIC AND ,UNIYE.RSITY BUSINESS OF UT.l.fi RESEARCH of , ,_-. TABLE 6.1 ECONOMIC BENEFITS TO UTAH FROM POTENTIAL DEVE,LOPMENT OF AN "ANETH" OIL FIELD IN CANYONLANDS AREA Comments, Greater Aneth Oil Field (Area I and Area II): E.stimate·d reserves (bbls) 'Recoverable, prLmaryand ideal operation (bbls) secondary .4 - Ant icipated Value o ''Potent ial II - - : Es-timated Direct Benefits' to Utah: Probability :'- benefits . ''new-field wildcats'" 40 wells at $50,000 each for local expenses ( labor, etc.) a Expl9ration Weighted average price of oil produced in Utah as computed from well information reported by Intermountain Association of Petroleum Geologists (47,463,405 bbls. included). "Expected" value en ! Laboratories, Inc. report to Utah Oil and Gas Commission, dated March I, 1961. 248,912,590 $679,53.1,000 ::I C Core Conservation $2.73 per bb1. ! Value of oil 902,569,500 "Aneth" Field:' - price at well head Oil Basis and Sources of Information: $200,000 for 7-10,000 foot depth (American Petroleum Institute national average $125,000); estDnate of certain drlling of 40 deep tests of format.Lena in area likely need encouraging results for continuing high exploration activity Utah well cost - . . $ 2, 000, 000 CC 1.0 $2, 000, 000 1.0 200,000 i ! Local from geophys Lca l , etc. • • 200,000 Total before' discovery = ·5' wells at - $2,200" 000 III . z Development $50,000 Field operation - Based 400 - each for local 200 men for (2200 man-years) aoyalty payments to State of Utah (State owned lands and share of Federal) . Greater Aneth experience. $20, 000,000 Aneth xperience; 12,000,000 computed at $3 pe hour­ (A.P.I. reports $2.69 for 1958). 39z OOOi 000 A.P.l. reports 'success of new-field wildcats. for two years, 1952 and 1955: ,5 of 14,178 . 11 years on (.000352). drilled were Total after TOTAL 1. discovery IPECTED" BENEFITS.!! . .000352 per well $71, 000, 000 lzOOOzOOO successful in discovering fields with reserves of 50 million barrels or likelihood of .000352 per exploration well more $3,200,000 ''promising'' formations is optimistic when comparative size of discovery is considered. - in '> . Excessive refinement of results has been avoided because of nature of data " - minor items' have been excluded.