Utah informed visual intellection for 2024

Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS I U N I V E R S I T Y O F U TA H In Par tnership with the Salt Lake Chamber KEM C. GARDNER POLIC Y INSTITUTE We are an honest broker of INFORMED RESEARCH that guides INFORMED DISCUSSIONS and leads to INFORMED D E C I S I O N S™ January 2024 Dear friends, We call the contents of this report “visual intellection.” While not a commonly used word, intellection describes the process of using your mind to carefully consider a matter of importance. Said another way, it’s thinking well. We can all agree that the coming year needs leaders who think well. In 2024 we face tumultuous geopolitical conflicts, a presidential election year characterized by extreme division, a resilient but uncertain national economy, artificial intelligence risks, and many other serious challenges. When Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell artfully said, “We are navigating by the stars under cloudy skies," he captured not just an economic stance, but a broader global, national, and state outlook. Our “cloudy” future, as the saying goes, will not be a gift, but rather an achievement. Here in Utah, the skies are clearer. We have nation-leading economic outcomes, upward mobility, and social capital that help us as we grow and change. We are now a mid-sized state that has become a destination of choice for new residents. We enthusiastically look to the future and embrace a 2034 Olympic dream, even as we face serious challenges in the present with Great Salt Lake, housing affordability, chronic homelessness, mental health, and growth…just to name a few. Thinking well is easier said than done. In a world filled with performative politics, news as entertainment, and social media algorithms, many struggle to find accurate, authoritative, and independently produced data and information. You’ve come to the right place. The Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute serves as an honest broker of informed research, that guides informed discussions, and leads to INFORMED DECISIONS™. We hope this ninth edition of Utah Informed will help you think well in 2024. Thanks for your interest, Natalie Gochnour Rachel Hayes Derek Miller Director, Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Dean, David Eccles School of Business President & CEO, Salt Lake Chamber DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 1 Contents Current Affairs Words and phrases to know in 2024. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Winter Olympic and Paralympic competition venues, 2002-2034. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 Utah components of population change, 2000-2020 and 2021-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 People experiencing chronic homelessness in Utah, 2019-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Federal deficit or surplus and net interest outlays as a share of GDP, 1940-2053. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Real private AI investment, historical and projected, 2013-2025. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 Rice Eccles Stadium capacity compared to select Utah county populations, 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . 12 NFL player origins per capita, 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Global refugees, 1965-June 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Utah Economy U.S. city average year-over inflation rates, 2016-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 U.S. consumer sentiment, real median weekly wage, and real consumer spending year-over percent change since 2019 Q4–2023 Q3. . . . . . . . . 17 Middle-class population as a share of total population, 1980-2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans to small and large/middle-market firms, 1991-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 2 Percent change in U.S. labor force participation rate by age since January 2019, 2019-2023 . . . . . . 20 U.S. wage growth by age since 2019, 2019-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Job growth for all 50 states, 2000-2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Unemployed persons per job opening ratio rate by state, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 Public Finance Total federal debt as a share of U.S. GDP, 1966-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24 State-imposed sales tax rates on groceries by state, 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 Median property taxes paid by county, 2017-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Utah's state budget allocation process, 2023. . . . . . . 27 Real Estate and Construction Change in the number of new listings for sale by state between October 2019 and 2022 . . . . . . . 28 Price of a starter home in Utah, 2000-2023. . . . . . . . . 29 Share of existing mortgages with an interest rate at 4% or lower by state, 2023 Q2. . . . . . . . . . . . 30 Average home equity as a share of value for homes with a mortgage by state, 2023 Q2. . . . . . . 31 Median sales price of existing single-family homes by state, 1970-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Share of permitted housing units by type in Utah, 2010-2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Median single-family mortgage payment compared to median single-family rent in Utah, 2010-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Median monthly sales price and new mortgage payment in Utah, 2020-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Architecture Billings Index, residential and commercial/industrial, U.S., 1999-2023 . . . . . . . . . . 36 Travel and Tourism Utah hotel room occupancy rate in annular eclipse pathway counties, second weekend in October, 2018-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Year-over change in Utah leisure and hospitality employment compared to 2019 baseline, 2020-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 County transient room tax revenue per household in Utah, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Year-over change in hotel and short-term rental occupancy rates in Utah, 2022 Q4-2023 Q3. . . . . . 40 Utah snowfall and skier days, 2004 -2005 ski season through 2022-2023 ski season. . . . . . . . . . . 41 SLC International Airport seats per departure, 2014-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 Utah outdoor recreation-related taxable sales and year-over change, 2018-2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Change in national park visitation since 2019, April-October, 2022 and 2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Energy and Environment Utah's critical minerals by geographic location, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Utah's energy production and consumption, 1960-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 Utah energy consumption by source, 2011-2021. . . 47 Utah renewable energy consumption by source, 2011-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 Uinta Basin waxy crude oil production, 2017-2023. . . 49 Residential electricity and natural gas prices in U.S. and Intermountain West, May 2023 . . . . . . . . . 50 Annual average Great Salt Lake elevation, 1903-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 Reservoir storage in the Great Salt Lake Basin, 1989-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 Health Real average annual growth in Utah’s individual and family income compared to health insurance costs, 2011-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Share of drug overdose deaths in Utah by substance, 2016-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 50th anniversary of the Rehabilitation Act. . . . . . . . . 55 Select mental health indicators among children and parents, 2020-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 3 Contents Select mental health indicators among adults, 2020-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 Uninsured rates by household poverty level in Utah, 2012 and 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 Cumulative percent change in Utah monthly medicaid enrollment, May 2023-September 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59 Percent change in Utah's private sector health care employment compared to 10-year average before COVID-19 pandemic, 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 Education Change in student proficiency rates from 2019 to 2023 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 Change in Utah K-12 enrollment, 2004-05 to 2034-35. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Share of Utah students who were chronically absent, 2011-12 to 2022-23. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Number of education preparation program completers, 2011-12 to 2020-23. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 Median balance for student loan borrowers by state, 2022 Q4. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Demographics Utah in-migrant place of birth, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66 Utah net migration, 2010-2023. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 Total fertility rate, 1960-2021. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68 Reasons for migrating to Utah, 2020-2060 projections. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 Utah in-migrant domestic origins, 2021. . . . . . . . . . . . 70 Utah and United States projected annual percentage population growth rates, 2025-2060. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Percent of population age 65 or older by county, 2010 and 2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72 Median age by county, 2020 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 Salt Lake City foreign-born population by region of origin, 2017-2021 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 Population change for Salt Lake City, Utah, and select cities, July 2021-July 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . 75 Utah households by type, 2000-2020. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 Racial and ethnic minority population shares, 1990 and 2022. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Utah Informed The whole point. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Editors: Jennifer Robinson and Natalie Roney 4 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Words and phrases to know in 2024 n Deepfake – An image or recording convincingly altered and manipulated to misrepresent someone as doing or saying something not actually done or said. “An image circulated of the President at Coachella, but it ended up being a deepfake.” n Deinfluencing – The practice of discouraging people from buying particular products, or of encouraging people to reduce their consumption of material goods, especially via social media. “I was going to buy the new iPhone, but I was deinfluenced by a person I follow on Instagram.” n n n Generative AI – Algorithms (such as ChatGPT) that can be used to create new content, including audio, code, images, text, simulations, and videos. “The university is having to update its cheating policies to include students’ use of generative AI to write papers.” Greenwash – The act or practice of making a product, policy, activity, etc. appear to be more environmentally friendly or less environmentally damaging than it really is. “A new report reveals that the company’s sustainability policies may just be greenwashing.” Heat dome – A weather phenomenon in which an area experiences stifling heat when a system of high pressure pushes very warm air downward and keeps it trapped as if in a bubble. “In August, 126 million people were under heat alerts due to a severe heat dome in the southern states.” DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS n Large Language Model (LLM) – A type of machine learning algorithm trained on extremely large datasets of existing language and designed to generate new, naturalistic responses to prompts. “Large Language Models such as ChatGPT have become a contentious topic of conversation among writers afraid of being pushed out of their jobs and replaced by AI.” n Nepo baby – Referring to nepotism, a nepo baby is a person, especially in the entertainment industry, whose career is believed to be advanced by having famous parents. “I bet he only got the role because he’s a nepo baby; his acting was only so-so.” n Parasocial – A unidirectional relationship that a person imagines having with another person whom they do not actually know, such as a celebrity or a fictional character. “I feel like I know Taylor Swift personally, but she doesn’t know I exist; our relationship is completely parasocial.” n Rizz – Short for “charisma.” An ability to charm or woo a person. “She can win over anyone. She has a lot of rizz.” n Shift shock – A phenomenol feeling of discrepancy between the expectations of a new job and the reality in the company. A new job or employer is not what a new hire expected, with some being either disappointed or otherwise surprised. “One day into my new job and I am already experiencing shift shock. I always wanted to work at a bank, but it’s not what I expected.” Current Affairs 5 Ready to welcome the world The 2034 Winter Games in Salt Lake City-Utah will be the first WINTER Games that will not require building new venues. Winter Olympic and Paralympic competition venues, 2002-2034 Salt Lake 2002 Torino 2006 Vancouver 2010 Sochi 2014 Pyeong Chang 2018 Beijing 2022 SLC-UT 2034 Existing Facilities 58% 59% 33% 8% 40% 54% 92% Temporary Construction 0% 6% 0% 0% 7% 15% 8% New Construction 42% 35% 67% 92% 53% 31% 0% Venue Type Source: Salt Lake City-Utah Committee for the Games 6 Current Affairs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 “ fraught Economic forecasting is a business. complex, quickly changing set of nonlinear relationships among seemingly The economy is a non-rational households, businesses, and governments. It is by geopolitical, technological, and environmental In forecasting, it is wise to remain continually buffeted shocks. humble.” - Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Current Affairs 7 Put out the welcome mat Utah components of population change, 2000-2020 and 2021-2023 2000-2020 2021-2023 34% 66% 59% 41% Net migration Natural increase Sources: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute and Utah Population Committee 8 Current Affairs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 How can we help? People experiencing chronic homelessness in Utah, 2019-2023 1,200 1,000 27% 1,004 Increase 800 792 688 600 400 642 512 200 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Note: The year 2021 is not comparable to other years due to data inconsisitencies caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. 10% Source: Utah Point in Time Count Historical DAVID 5%E C C L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S Projected Current Affairs 9 200 Is it in our interest? 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Federal deficit or surplus and net interest outlays as a share of GDP, 1940-2053 10% Historical Projected 5% 0% Total deficit or surplus less net interest outlays -5% Net interest outlays -10% Total deficit or surplus -15% -20% -25% -30% 1940 1948 1956 1964 1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012 2020 2028 2036 2044 2052 Note: Federal deficits less net interest outlay as a share of GDP in 2023 and 2053 equals roughly 3.4%. High interest rates and sustained deficits combined cause net outlays for interest to almost triple in relation to U.S. GDP. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Office of Management and Budget data 10 Current Affairs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 The AI revolution Real private AI investment, historical and projected, 2013-2025 $180 Historical Projected $160 $140 Billions of 2021 USD $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 U.S. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 World Sources: Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence and Goldman Sachs Research DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Current Affairs 11 1.29 2.59 1.01– 2.62 1.64 0.17 1.10 A Utah fan am I Rice Eccles Stadium capacity compared to select Utah county populations, 2023 Seating capacity of Rice Eccles Stadium at the University of Utah: 51,444 Total population of Wayne, Garfield, Kane, San Juan, Grand, and Emery counties: 50,881 Source: Utah Population Committee 12 Current Affairs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Homegrown in Utah NFL player origins per capita, 2023 0.41 0.34 0.00 0.95 0.67 0.87 0.40 0.75 0.69 0.64 0.75 0.83 0.70 0.53 0.80 1.12 0.69 1.39 0.77 0.63 0.81 0.12 0.23 0.82 0.96 0.27 0.44 1.01 1.14 0.98 0.53 1.46 2.24 1.29 0.54 1.22 VT 0.00 NH 0.09 MA 0.38 RI 0.22 CT 0.78 NJ 1.07 DE 0.87 MD 1.39 2.30 0.00 – 0.50 2.62 0.51–1.00 2.59 1.01– 2.62 1.64 0.17 1.10 Note: Origin refers to where a player went to high school. Source: Dr. Ted Goudge, Sport Geographer, Northwest Missouri State University DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Current Affairs 13 Put yourself in their shoes Global refugees, 1965-June 2023 35 30 25 Millions 20 15 10 5 2023 2021 2019 2017 2015 2013 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 1975 1973 1971 1969 1967 1965 0 Note: Refugees, as defined by the UNHCR, include "all persons outside their country of origin for reasons of feared persecution, conflict, generalized violence, or other circumstances that have seriously disturbed public order and who, as a result, require international protection." Source: United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees 14 Current Affairs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 SPEAK “ what’s written in your HEART.” - U of U Impact Scholar Arthur Brooks advising Utah leaders DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Current Affairs 15 Coming down U.S. city average year-over inflation rates, 2016-2023 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% Target inflation rate: 2% 1% 0% 2016 2017 All items 2018 2019 2020 All items less food and energy 2021 Child care 2022 2023 Housing Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 120 16 Utah Economy 100 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Retail therapy U.S. consumer sentiment, real median weekly wage, and real consumer spending year-over percent change since 2019 Q4–2023 Q3 20% 10% Real U.S. consumer spending Real U.S. median weekly wage 0% -10% -20% U.S. consumer sentiment -30% -40% -50% 2020 2021 2022 2023 35% Sources: University of Michigan, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 30% Utah Economy 17 Hollowing out the middle Middle-class population as a share of total population, 1980-2020 51.4% 50.6% 48.3% 50.0% 46.6% 48.2% 46.3% 48.2% 46.1% 44.7% 1980 1990 2000 Utah 2010 2020 U.S. Note: Middle-class population estimated by household size as the average of 50% to 150% of median household income and the 30th to 70th percentile of the ratio of household income to federal poverty guidelines. Economic conditions in Utah and the U.S. varied during these window years. Recessions occurred during parts of 1980, 1990, and 2021. Recovery from the Great Recession began in 2010. Utah and U.S. economic performance were relatively strong in 2000. These results are from survey data subject to uncertainty from sampling error. Census Bureau samples in both Utah and the U.S. included 5.0% of all households from 1980 to 2000 and 1.0% 100% of households in 2010 and 2021. Comparisons to 2020 sample data are not recommended due to uncharacteristic survey issues. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of data from the U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 18 80%Economy Utah Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 1980 1990 Don't bank on it 2000 Utah 2010 2020 U.S. Net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans to small and large/middle-market firms, 1991-2023 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 Large and middle-market firms 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 Small firms Source: Board of Governor's of the Federal Reserve System DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Utah Economy 19 Teens at work Percent change in U.S. labor force participation rate by age since January 2019, 2019-2023 10% 16–19 5% 25–54 0% 20–24 55+ -5% -10% -15% -20% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35% Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 20 Utah Economy 30% Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 16–19for 2024 Utah Informed: Visual Intellection -15% -20% 2019 2020 Young money 2021 2022 2023 U.S. wage growth by age since 2019, 2019-2023 35% 16–19 30% 25% 25–54 20–24 55+ 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Utah Economy 21 Utah’s elite economy Job growth for all 50 states, 2000-2023 20% Utah ranks #4: 5.1% in 2021 Utah expansion peak: 5.4%, Jun 2006 10% Utah ranks #2: -0.7% in 2020 Utah ranks #3: 2.8% in 2019 0% Utah 2.9%, US 2.0%: June 2023 Utah recession-related trough: -1.5%, Dec 2001 -10% Utah pandemic recession-related trough: -7.7%, Apr 2020 Utah Great Recession-related trough: -6.2%, Aug 2009 -20% -30% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Utah 2010 2012 U.S. 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 Other states Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and Governor’s Office of Planning and Budget 4.50 22 Utah Economy 4.00 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Unbalanced Unemployed persons per job opening ratio rate by state, 2022 0.72 0.33 0.62 0.43 0.28 0.38 0.39 0.41 0.33 0.44 0.78 0.63 0.57 0.43 0.63 0.43 0.36 0.34 0.67 0.40 0.45 0.56 0.37 0.47 0.58 0.50 0.50 0.38 0.50 0.43 0.47 0.43 0.54 0.56 0.74 0.63 VT 0.38 NH 0.37 MA 0.52 RI 0.47 CT 0.71 NJ 0.65 DE 0.58 MD 0.50 DC 0.40 0.40 0.39 0.50 0.47 0.47 0.60 0.28 0.78 Note: A value lower than one indicates more job openings than unemployed persons. Lower values indicate tighter labor market conditions. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 140% DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 120% Utah Economy 23 0.47 0.47 0.60 0.28 Debt dilemma 0.78 Total federal debt as a share of U.S. GDP, 1966-2023 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and U.S. Department of the Treasury 24 Public Finance Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 A penny for your pantry State-imposed sales tax rates on groceries by state, 2023 6.0% 4.5% 1.0% 1.75% 6.5% 4.5% 1.225% 4.0% .125% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.1% 7.0% Note: Local governments may also impose a sales tax on groceries. Some states offer rebates or tax credits to compensate low-income households. Utah's 1.75% state-imposed sales tax on groceries will be removed if voters approve the 2024 ballot measure adjusting the constitutional earmark of income taxes (1.25% local tax remains). Source: Federation of Tax Administrators DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Public Finance 25 4.0% The most hated tax 0.1% 7.0% Median property taxes paid by county, 2017-2021 $2,229 Ada County, ID Salt Lake County, UT Los Angeles County CA $2,365 $5,377 $4,675 Dallas County, TX No Data Kings County, NY $3,850 $200 $10,000 Note: Missing values are due to small sample sizes in low-population counties. Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017-2021 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates and Tax Foundation 26 Public Finance Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 1% 0% 1932 1939 1946 1953 Your vote matters 1960 1967 1974 1981 Corporate income tax 1988 1995 2002 2009 2016 2023 Individual income tax Utah's state budget allocation process, 2023 Legislature imposes taxes and fees 1 Other Taxes and Fees Income Tax Sales Tax C Legislature passes laws that channel revenue into different funds (or accounts) 2 Legislature annually authorizes spending from funds 3 C Reg. Fees Other Fees C Income Tax Fund Public Education Gas Tax General Fund Higher Education Medicaid Transportation Fund Various Other Funds Transportation Public Safety & Corrections Everything Else Mandated by Utah Constitution Note: A 2024 ballot measure will ask Utah’s voters whether or not to adjust the constitutional earmark of income taxes if certain education funding conditions remain in place. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Utah Governor's Office of Planning and Budget and Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst data DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Public Finance 27 Nevada Washington Tennessee Louisiana South Dakota Arkansas Alabama New Mexico Florida Texas Arizona Mississippi Oklahoma Hawaii Ohio Indiana Idaho West Virginia Kentucky North Carolina Utah Kansas Missouri Wyoming South Carolina Georgia Colorado Iowa United States Total Michigan Pennsylvania North Dakota Illinois Rhode Island Wisconsin Nebraska Maine Minnesota Virginia Vermont Maryland Connecticut California New Jersey New York Alaska Massachusetts District of Columbia Montana New Hampshire Oregon Delaware 0% Housing inventory has long COVID Sales and gross receipts taxes Individual income tax Property tax Corporate income tax Excise taxes & other Change in the number of new listings for sale by state between October 2019 and 2022 -24.5% -20.4% -17.2% -2.1% -29.7% -24.4% -31.1% -19.7% - 26.8% -36.5% -26.1% -27.0% -15.9% -29.2% -22.2% -20.1% -14.8% -13.3% -11.3% -24.8% -21.2% -25.5% -16.2% -11.7% - 4.7% -16.0% -17.4% -14.6% -0.9% -24.5% -16.7% -15.1% 0.3% VT -28.0% NH -25.6% MA -25.1% RI -23.2% CT -28.7% NJ -34.5% DE -38.7% MD -26.8% DC -10.5% -11.7% -3.7% -1.6% -20.1% -5.0% -9.9% -23.3% -2.0% -33.2% 0.3% -38.7% Source: Realtor.com 28 Real Estate and Construction Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Out of reach Price of a starter home in Utah, 2000-2023 $500,000 $432,000 $450,000 $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 $150,000 $100,000 $50,000 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 $0 Note: Starter home price is assumed at 80% of median sales price. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of UtahRealEstate.com data 68.5% DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 65.6% 66.9% Real Estate and Construction 57.5 66.2% 66.3% VT 58.8% 29 $100,000 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 2007 Utahns are locked in $0 2018 $50,000 Share of existing mortgages with an interest rate at 4% or lower by state, 2023 Q2 68.5% 65.6% 57.5 66.2% 66.3% 66.9% 68.4% 65.6% 66.8% 68.5% 71.9% 64.2% 69.6% 54.4% 56.1% 62.9% 64.1% 60.7% 59.2% 59.1% 51.4% 58.9% 56.1% 57.6% 56.4% 48.8% 64.3% 58.8% 57.4% 56.9% 54.7% 51.7% 55.0% 53.3% 58.9% 64.9% VT 58.8% NH 62.7% MA 65.9% RI 61.8% CT 59.5% NJ 60.1% DE 59.0% MD 62.3% DC 64.6% 54.9% 56.7% 52.4% 63.4% 55.1% 65.1% 48.8% 71.9% Source: The Federal Housing Finance Agency 30 Real Estate and Construction Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 The equity safe Average home equity as a share of value for homes with a mortgage by state, 2023 Q2 54.5% 56.2% 55.3% 44.6% 49.5% 52.7% 55.8% 52.5% 51.7% 50.4% 51.3% 52.9% 52.0% 57.3% 52.8% 50.4% 50.5% 48.9% 47.1% 50.3% 49.8% 48.5% 49.3% 50.0% 47.4% 49.6% 48.0% 51.9% 52.6% 48.4% 50.4% 47.5% 50.8% 54.5% 51.2% 47.6% VT 56.0% NH 54.6% MA 55.1% RI 52.3% CT 49.5% NJ 51.8% DE 49.2% MD 46.4% DC 50.4% 50.9% 46.9% 44.7% 44.4% 53.45 57.2% 44.4% 57.3% Source: The$1,200 Federal Housing Finance Agency DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS $1,000 Real Estate and Construction 31 44.7% 44.4% 53.45 57.2% Shocking! 44.4% 57.3% Median sales price of existing single-family homes by state, 1970-2023 $1,200 $1,000 Hawaii California District of Columbia Thousands of USD $800 Massachussetts Colorado $600 Washington Oregon Utah $400 West Virginia $200 $0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: National Association of Realtors 32 Real Estate and Construction Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 A decade of density Share of permitted housing units by type in Utah, 2010-2022 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Single family 30% Condominium, townhome, twin home units Apartment units 20% 10% 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 80% Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute D A V I D60% ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Real Estate and Construction 33 20% 10% The high cost of owning 0% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Median single-family mortgage payment compared to median single-family rent in Utah, 2010-2023 80% 60% 40% 20% Owning premium 0% Owning discount -20% -40% -60% 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 -80% Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of RentRange and UtahRealEstate.com and FreddieMac data 34 Real Estate and Construction Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 659 500 0 2018 934 740 509 170 rates hold the reins Interest 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Median monthly sales price and new mortgage payment in Utah, 2020-2023 $600,000 $3,500 $500,000 $3,000 $2,500 $400,000 $2,000 $300,000 $1,500 $200,000 $1,000 $100,000 $500 $0 2020 2021 Median sales price 2022 2023 $0 Median monthly payment Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of UtahRealEstate.com and FreddieMac data DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Real Estate and Construction 35 Fewer billings, fewer buildings Architecture Billings Index, residential and commercial/industrial, U.S., 1999-2023 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 Commercial & industrial 2014 2017 2020 2023 Residential Note: The Architecture Billings Index is derived from a monthly survey of architecture firms asking whether their billings increased, decreased, or stayed the same in the previous month. A score greater than 50 indicates a higher proportion of architecture firms reporting increases, while a score below 50 denotes a higher share reporting decreases in billings. The findings amount to a leading economic indicator that provides an approximately six month glimpse into the future of construction activity. The y-axis begins at 20 to better show fluctuations in the index. Source: The American Institute of Architects 20% 36 Real Estate and Construction Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 12.8% $205.6 $105.8 Iron $130.2 Washington $248.3 $780.7 Garfield $1,529.7 San Juan $320.0 Kane $1,781.9 Eclipsing other years $1,969.01 $20.49 Utah hotel room occupancy rate in annular eclipse pathway counties, second weekend in October, 2018-2023 100% 90% 89.0% 80% 70% 60% 69.6% 76.0% 80.2% 77.6% 80.2% October 14, 2023 Annular Eclipse 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Note: "Annular Ecliple Pathway Counties" include Beaver, Garfield, Juab, Millard, San Juan, Sevier, and Wayne Counties. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of STR, Inc. data DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Travel and Tourism 37 30 25 20 1999 2002 2005 Tourists went rural... 2008 2011 Commercial & industrial 2014 2017 2020 2023 Residential Year-over change in Utah leisure and hospitality employment compared to 2019 baseline, 2020-2023 20% 12.8% 10% 11.3% 6.4% 4.2% 0.5% 0% - 4.8% -10% - 10.8% - 13.6% -20% 2020 2021 2022 Urban 2023 (Q1) Rural Note: This figure includes private full- and part-time employment; self-employed are not included. Urban Utah includes Davis, Salt Lake, Utah, and Weber counties and Rural Utah includes all other counties. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data 38 Travel and Tourism Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 ...And their taxes did, too County transient room tax revenue per household in Utah, 2022 $36.1 Cache $1,701.6 Rich $30.2 Weber $21.3 Davis $20.5 Morgan $1,361.3 Dagget Box Elder $33.6 Tooele $32.7 Salt Lake $63.3 Summit $1,309.5 Wasatch $362.4 Duchesne $25.3 Utah $33.5 Juab $58.1 Carbon $63.0 Sanpete $24.2 Millard $71.0 Sevier $106.5 Beaver $205.6 Iron $130.2 Washington $248.3 $20.49 Uintah $89.2 Piute $105.8 Emery $198.2 Grand $1,969.0 Wayne $780.7 Garfield $1,529.7 San Juan $320.0 Kane $1,781.9 $1,969.01 Note: Household data include 2021 ACS 5-year estimates. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of U.S. Census Bureau and Utah State Tax Commission data 100% DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 90% Travel and Tourism 39 A saturated short-term rental market Year-over change in hotel and short-term rental occupancy rates in Utah, 2022 Q4-2023 Q3 2% 0.5% 0.2% 0% -0.2% -1.1% -2% -3.3% -4% -6% -6.5% -8% -7.9% -9.0% -10% Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Hotel Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Short-term rental Note: Short term rentals include unique listings on Airbnb, VRBO, HomeAway, Booking, and TripAdvisor; rentals listed as "other" and subtypes listed as "shared room" have been omitted. 1,000 Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of STR, Inc. and Transparent data 40 900 and Tourism Travel 800 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 -8% -7.9% -9.0% Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow! -10% Q4 2022 Q1 2023 Hotel Q2 2023 Q3 2023 Short-term rental Utah snowfall and skier days, 2004 -2005 ski season through 2022-2023 ski season 1,000 900 Inches of snow & skier days in 10,000s 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2004-2005 2007-2008 2010-2011 Snow in inches 2013-2014 2016-2017 2019-2020 2022-2023 Skier days (in 10,000s) Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of Alta Ski Resort and Ski Utah data DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Travel and Tourism 41 Travel got better SLC International Airport seats per departure, 2014-2023 New SLC Phase 1 New SLC Phase 2 140 137 131 Number of seats per departure 120 100 111 113 2015 2016 116 120 120 120 2018 2019 2020 124 105 80 60 40 20 0 2014 2017 2021 2022 2023 Note: New SLC Phase 1 and 2 refer to airport renovation and expansion phases. New gates accomodate larger aircraft with higher seating capacity. Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute analysis of SLC International Airport data 42 $2,500 Travel and Tourism $2,304 $2,165 (+15.8%) Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute (-5.1%) $1,981 20 0 2014 We're all outdoor enthusiasts now 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Utah outdoor recreation-related taxable sales and year-over change, 2018-2022 $2,304 $2,500 $1,981 Millions of 2022 USD $2,165 (-5.1%) (+28.9%) $2,000 $1,500 (+15.8%) $1,479 $1,540 (+4.2%) $1,000 $500 $0 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Sporting goods stores RV dealers Recreational goods rental Sporting & rec goods & supplies RV parks/campgrounds Nature parks/similar instituations Recreational vacation camps Recreational vacation camps Boat dealers Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute Analysis of Utah State Tax Commission data DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Travel and Tourism 43 Did the Arches timed entry pilot cause declines? Change in national park visitation since 2019, April-October, 2022 and 2023 5% 1.3% 0% -0.2% -1.2% -3.3% -5% -5.3% -7.6% -10% -9.8% -11.9% -15% -16.0% -20% -19.3% -25% 2022 Arches 2023 Bryce Canyonlands Capitol Reef Zion Note: Arches National Park Timed Entry Pilot was in place from April to October in 2022 and 2023; the pilot will be back in place again from April to October, 2024. Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute analysis of National Park Service data 44 Magnesium Travel and Tourism Lithium Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 -25% 2022 Arches Critical to the future Bryce Canyonlands Capitol Reef 2023 Zion Utah's critical minerals by geographic location, 2022 Magnesium Lithium Platinum Palladium Tellurium Beryllium Uranium-Vanadium Lithium Uranium-Vanadium Uranium-Vanadium Note: Critical minerals, as defined by the U.S. Geological Survey, are minerals that are essential to the economy and whose supply may be disrupted. Uranium, while not currently designated as a critical mineral, plays a significant role in Utah's energy economy. Source: Utah Geological Survey DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Energy and Environment 45 Utah's current energy dependence Utah's energy production and consumption, 1960-2021 1,000 500 800 400 600 300 400 200 200 100 BTU (trillion) 600 0 0 -200 1960 Differential - BTU (trillion) 1,200 1965 1970 Production 1975 1980 Consumption 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Net energy exporter 2010 2015 2020 -100 Net energy importer Sources: United 1,000 State Energy Information Administration and Utah Geological Survey 46 900 and Environment Energy Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 0 0 -200 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Renewable: Big growth, but small share Production Consumption Net energy exporter 2020 -100 Net energy importer Utah energy consumption by source, 2011-2021 1,000 900 800 700 BTU (trillion) 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2012 2011 Coal 2013 Petroleum 2014 2015 2016 Natural gas 2017 2018 Renewable energy 2019 2020 2021 Fossil fuel total Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Energy and Environment 47 Always look on the bright side Utah renewable energy consumption by source, 2011-2021 80,000 70,000 60,000 BTU (billion) 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2011 2012 2013 Biomass 2014 2015 Geothermal 2016 2017 Hydropower 2018 Solar 2019 2020 2021 Wind 120Energy Data System Source: State 48 110 Energy and Environment 100 120 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 109 10,000 0 2011 2012 2013 Biomass 2014 Got oil? 2015 Geothermal 2016 2017 2018 Hydropower 2019 Solar 2020 2021 Wind Uinta Basin waxy crude oil production, 2017-2023 120 120 110 109 Barrels per day oil production (thousand) 100 90 87 80 87 86 79 70 71 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Utah Division of Oil, Gas, and Mining DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Energy and Environment 49 What's your bill? Residential electricity and natural gas prices in U.S. and Intermountain West, May 2023 25 20 15 10 5 0 U.S. average Utah New Mexico Residential electricity (¢ per kWh) Nevada Arizona Idaho Colorado Residential natural gas ( $/1,000 cu. ft.) 4,212 Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration 50 4,210 Energy and Environment 4,208 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 5 0 U.S. average Utah A hemispheric challenge New Mexico Nevada Residential electricity (¢ per kWh) Arizona Idaho Colorado Residential natural gas ( $/1,000 cu. ft.) Annual average Great Salt Lake elevation, 1903-2023 4,212 4,210 4,208 4,206 4,204 Elevation (feet) 4,202 4,200 Average elevation: 1903-present (4,199) 4,198 4,196 4,194 4,192 4,190 4,188 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 North Arm 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 South Arm Note: Average elevation in 2023 is calculated through October 1, 2023. Source: U.S. Geological Survey Historical Elevation at Saltair Boar Harbor and Saline, UT DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Energy and Environment 51 Thank you Mother Nature! Reservoir storage in the Great Salt Lake Basin, 1989-2023 3,400 Capacity 3,200 3,000 Recent high: July 2023 2,800 2,600 2,400 Storage (KAF) 2,200 1,606 KAF 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 Recent low: November 2022 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Note: KAF stands for thousand acre-feet. Source: Utah Division of Water Resources EnergyDeductibles and Environment ual 52 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 3.7% Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 800 600 400 200 0 1992 Rising health care costs 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Individual Real average annual growth in Utah’s individual and family income compared to health insurance costs, 2011-2021 Deductibles 3.7% Premiums 2.7% Income 1.1% of Utahns worry about affording health insurance in the future. Family Deductibles 2.5% Premiums 4.7% Income 0% 69% 1.4% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% Note: Income is median non-family and family income. Premiums and deductibles represent average employee contributions for private-sector employees enrolled in single and family coverage. Sources: Medical Expenditure Panel Survey data and Census Bureau, American Community Survey data 2011-2021 DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Health 53 Changing substance use landscape Share of drug overdose deaths in Utah by substance, 2016-2023 60% Share of drug overdose deaths 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2016 2017 2018 Prescription opioid 2019 2020 Methamphetamine 2021 Heroin 2022 2023* Fentanyl Note: Most poisoning deaths involve more than one substance; therefore, the share of deaths by substance in a given year will not sum to 100%. Data are available from January 1 through June 2023. Estimates are based on deaths that occurred in Utah, regardless of the decedent’s residence status. Data are obtained from the Utah Medical Examiner Database (UMED) based on data available for analysis on November 9 , 2023. Drug poisoning (overdose) deaths were defined as having an International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD–10-CM) underlying-cause-of-death code of X40–X44 (unintentional) or Y10–Y14 (undetermined intent). One limitation of the ICD–10 classification system is that, with few exceptions, ICD–10 codes reflect broad categories of drugs rather than specific drugs; therefore, the immediate cause of death variable (text field) on the death certificate was used to identify specific drugs in overdose deaths (e.g., fentanyl and methamphetamine). Counts are preliminary. It is possible that current pending deaths will be certified as drug overdoses in the future and the manner of death in currently registered cases may be amended as additional information about the death becomes available. Source: Analysis performed by Megan Broekemeier, Drug Overdose Prevention Research Coordinator, Utah Department of Health and Human Services. Data from the Utah Office of the Medical Examiner. 54 Health Over 350,000 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 0% 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023* 50th anniversary of the Rehabilitation Act Prescription opioid Methamphetamine Heroin Fentanyl The Rehabilitation Act is the first federal legislation to address access and equity for people with disabilities and provide employment protections to people with disabilities. Over 350,000 Utahns have a disability, or 10.6% of the population. Only 5 10 in Utahns with a disability are employed. Note: The Rehabilitation Act is the first federal legislation to address access and equity for people with disabilities and provide employment protections to people with disabilities. For purposes of these data, "disability" is defined as someone who said "yes" to one or more of the following questions: 1. Are you blind or do you have serious difficulty seeing, even when wearing glasses? 2. Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, do you have serious difficulty concentrating, remembering, or making decisions? 3. Do you have serious difficulty walking or climbing stairs? 4. Do you have difficulty dressing or bathing? 5. Because of a physical, mental, or emotional condition, do you have any difficulty doing errands alone such as visiting a doctor's office or shopping? 6. Are you deaf or do you have serious difficulty hearing? Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2022 1-Year American Community Survey Estimates DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Health 55 Alarm bells for children... Children ages 12-17 years Children ages 6-11 years Parents of children under age 3 Select mental health indicators among children and parents, 2020-2021 12.6% Mother reports fair/poor mental health 5.2% Parent reports not coping very well with the daily demands of raising children 44.6% 31.8% 10.7% Prevalence of current anxiety 7.1% 2.4% Prevalence of current depression 1.7% Children with a mental/behavioral condition who did not receive treatment or counseling 63.7% 54.3% 17.9% Prevalence of current anxiety 14.5% 7.6% Prevalence of current depression 8.4% Children with a mental/behavioral condition who did not receive treatment or counseling 53.1% 41.9% 0% 10% 20% 30% Utah 40% 50% 60% 70% U.S. Note:The third column represents children reported by their parents to have been diagnosed by a health care provider with a mental/behavioral condition (depression, anxiety problem, or behavioral or conduct problems). Estimates for ages 3-5 years are suppressed due to large confidence intervals that may not be reliable. Estimates for 6-11 years and 12-17 years have a 95% confidence interval width exceeding 20 percentage points or 1.2 times the estimate and may not be reliable. Source: Child and Adolescent Health Measurement Initiative. 2020-2021 National Survey of Children’s Health (NSCH) data query. Data Resource Center for Child and Adolescent Health supported by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration (HRSA), Maternal and Child Health Bureau (MCHB). 2018-2020 National Survey of Children’s Health NSCH Public-Use Data. From Prenatal-to-3 State Policy Roadmap. Retrieved 05/19/2023 from 40% www.childhealthdata.org 56 Health 35% Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: 34.1% Visual Intellection for 2024 Children a 12-17 ye 7.6% Prevalence of current depression 8.4% Children with a mental/behavioral condition who did not receive treatment or counseling 53.1% ...And adults, too 0% 10% 20% 30% 41.9% 40% Utah 50% 60% 70% U.S. Select mental health indicators among adults, 2020-2021 40% 34.1% 35% 30% 25% 28.2% 25.3% 22.8% 20% 15% 10% 7.2% 6.3% 5.6% 5% 0% Any mental illness Serious mental illness Utah 4.9% Serious thoughts Of suicide U.S. Adult with any mental illness reporting unmet treatment needs Sources: Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA), Center for Behavioral Health Statistics and Quality, National Survey on Drug Use and Health, 2021 DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Health 57 More coverage Uninsured rates by household poverty level in Utah, 2012 and 2022 31.2% Income as a share of federal poverty level <100% 17.5% 26.1% 100%-199% 15.2% 11.5% 200%-399% 9.4% 5.5% 400%+ 4.9% 15.4% Total 9.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 2012 20% 25% 30% 35% 2022 Note: ACS includes a 1% sample of the US population and allows for precise state-level estimates. The U.S. Census Bureau's poverty threshold for a family with two adults and one child was $23,556 in 2022. Source: Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) estimates based on the 2012-2022 American Community Survey, 1-Year Estimates 0% 58 nt Health May-23 -3% Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Sep-23 Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 15.4% Total 9.0% 0% Less coverage 5% 10% 15% 2012 20% 25% 30% 35% 2022 Cumulative percent change in Utah monthly medicaid enrollment, May 2023-September 2023 Cumulative percent change in Medicaid monthly enrollment 0% May-23 Jun-23 Jul-23 Aug-23 Sep-23 -3% -5% -9% -10% -13% -15% -20% -16% -20% Note: The COVID-19 Public Health Emergency required states to continue Medicaid coverage for all members even if their eligibility changed. The 2023 Consolidated Appropriations Act established April 1, 2023 as the end of the continuous enrollment requirement for Medicaid. On March 1, 2023, the Utah Department of Workforce Services began reviewing eligibility for all Medicaid cases as part of the "unwinding" process, which will continue until April 2024. Utah's Medicaid enrollment declined by 58,250 members from April to September 2023. A person is disenrolled if they no longer qualify for Medicaid services or updated eligibility information was not provided to Utah Medicaid by the due date. That said, starting in January 2024, Utah Medicaid will expand continuous coverage to postpartum women and their newborns for 12 months post-birth as well as an estimated 2,000 newly eligible non-citizen children through the Children Health Insurance Program (CHIP). Source: Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) analysis of state administrative data DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Health 59 Who stayed? Percent change in Utah's private sector health care employment compared to 10-year average before COVID-19 pandemic, 2022 35% 29.0% 30% 25% 22.8% 20% 15% 9.2% 2.3% 0% -0.4% -5% -1.9% -3.9% 2021-2022 percent change General medical and surgical hospitals Skilled nursing care facilities Home health care services Psychiatric and substance use disorder hospitals Mental health practitioners Mental health physicians -5.0% Physicians -10% 1.5% Registered nurses 5% Assisted living facilities 10% 10-year average annual percent change (before COVID-19 pandemic) Note: The columns represent a one-year percent change in employment. The black line represents the 10-year average annual percent change in employment. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Registered nurse data are from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupation Employment and Wages Statistics. 60 0% Health -2% English Language Arts Mathematics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Science Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Regis n General m and su hos Assisted l fac Skilled nu care fac Home h care ser Psychiatri substanc disorder hos Mental h practiti Mental h physi Physi 2021-2022 percent change 10-year average annual percent change (before COVID-19 pandemic) Pandemic learning loss Change in student proficiency rates from 2019 to 2023 0% English Language Arts Mathematics -2% Science -3.1% -3.7% -4% -5.4% -6% -8% -9.3% -10% -10.9% -12% -14% -15.8% -16% -18% All students Economically disadvantaged students Note: Economically disadvantaged students are measured as students qualifying for free or reduced-price lunch. Measured using RISE test scores grades 3-8 for English Language Arts and Mathematics and grades 4-8 for Science. Source: Kem C. Gardner Institute analysis of Utah State Board of Education data DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Education 61 20% 10% 0% A turning point 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 Change in Utah K-12 enrollment, 2004-05 to 2034-35 20,000 Historical Projected 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 2034-35 2033-34 2032-33 2031-32 2030-31 2029-30 2028-29 2027-28 2026-27 2025-26 2024-25 2022-23 2023-24 2021-22 2020-21 2019-20 2018-19 2017-18 2016-17 2015-16 2014-15 2013-14 2012-13 2011-12 2010-11 2009-10 2008-09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06 (10,000) 2004-05 (5,000) Note: Enrollment projections calculated as the average enrollment share of the school-age population from 2020-2022 (94.5%). Sources: Utah State Board of Education and Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Long-term Population Projections 62 Education Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Bueller? Share of Utah students who were chronically absent, 2011-12 to 2022-23 25.2% 27.2% 30% 25% 20% 19.0% 14.3% 15% 11.9% 10.6% 12.2% 11.3% 11.9% 12.5% 12.9% 9.2% 10% 5% 0% 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20* 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Note: A student is considered chronically absent if they were absent for more than 10% of days enrolled. Source:3,500 Utah State Board of Education DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 3,000 2,786 3,138 3,115 Education 63 5% 0% Be prepared 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20* 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 Number of education preparation program completers, 2011-12 to 2020-23 3,500 3,138 3,115 2021-22 2022-23 3,000 2,786 2,693 2,452 2,500 2,563 2,673 2,403 2,365 2,133 2,340 2,047 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 Sources: Title II Higher Education Act National Teacher Preparation Reports and Utah State Board of Education 64 Education Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 The debt that was almost forgiven Median balance for student loan borrowers by state, 2022 Q4 $17,830 $17,530 $15,960 $20,500 $17,980 $15,500 $16,280 $17,350 $17,750 $17,390 $16,760 $16,750 $16,240 $19,810 $17,540 $17,710 $18,360 $17,880 $17,100 $19,820 $19,160 $19,990 $19,750 $19,550 $18,200 $18,060 $21,260 $19,360 $18,670 $21,020 $19,610 $20,620 $17,320 $16,570 $19,760 $18,660 $17,270 VT $19,220 NH $19,300 MA $19,230 RI $17,120 CT $19,750 NJ $19,550 DE $19,750 MD $22,260 DC $28,270 $22,310 $17,540 $17,210 $19,530 $17,790 $15,500 $28,270 Note: The U.S. Supreme Court struck down a debt relief plan in June 2023 that would have erased up to $10,000 in federal student loan debt for most borrowers and up to $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients. Source: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York 2.7% Education DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% VT 0.1% 65 $17,540 $17,210 $19,530 $17,790 Welcome home $15,500 $28,270 Utah in-migrant place of birth, 2021 2.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.5% 4.0% 1.7% 0.3% 1.7% 15.9% 4.4% 2.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 26.9% 1.5% 0.9% 0.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 3.4% 0.8% VT 0.1% NH 0.3% MA 0.3% RI 0.3% CT 0.4% NJ 0.5% DE 0.3% MD 1.3% DC 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2021 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates 66 Demographics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Hello, my new friend Utah net migration, 2010-2023 40,000 35,000 30,000 Net migration 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: 5.0Utah Population Committee 4.30 D A V4.5 ID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Demographics 67 10,000 5,000 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 Bye bye, baby 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Total fertility rate, 1960-2021 5.0 4.30 4.5 4.0 3.5 2.68 3.0 1.92 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Utah U.S. 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 0.0 Replacement Source: National Center for Health Statistics 68 Demographics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Jobs draw people Reasons for migrating to Utah, 2020-2060 projections 100 80 60 86% 83% 80% 77% 14% 17% 20% 23% 40 20 0 2020s 2030s 2040s Retirement-related 2050s Employment-related Source: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute 2020-2060 Projections 5.3% Demographics 0.1% DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 1.1% 4.1% 0.5% 0.1% VT 0.0% 69 20 0 23% 20% 17% 14% Welcome, neighbors! 2020s 2030s 2040s Retirement-related 2050s Employment-related Utah in-migrant domestic origins, 2021 5.3% 1.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 4.1% 6.6% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 3.8% 16.6% 4.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 3.3% 2.4% 0.5% 1.7% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.3% 1.3% VT 0.0% NH 0.3% MA 2.0% RI 0.1% CT 0.5% NJ 0.5% DE 0.6% MD 0.54% DC 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 2.0% 7.2% 0.3% 0.7% 3.0% 2.1% Note: International out-migrants are not included in the data. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2021 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, Integrated Public Use Microdata Series 70 Demographics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Quite the contrast Utah and United States projected annual percentage population growth rates, 2025-2060 2.0% 1.8% Average Annual Rate of Change 1.6% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2025 2030 2035 2040 Utah 2045 2050 2055 2060 United States Note: Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute's Baseline Scenario and the Census Bureau's "middle" scenario presented. State ofC.Utah Sources: Kem Gardner Policy Institute 2020-2060 Projections (Utah series) and U.S. Census Bureau (United States series) Dagget Piute D A V I D E CKane CLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Wayne Garfield Demographics 71 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2025 Better with age? 2030 2035 2040 Utah 2045 2050 2055 2060 United States Percent of population age 65 or older by county, 2010 and 2020 State of Utah Dagget Piute Kane Wayne Garfield Washington Carbon Grand Rich Emery Millard Sevier Sanpete San Juan Beaver Summit Iron Duchesne Box Elder Wasatch Juab Morgan Weber Uintah Salt Lake Davis Cache Tooele Utah 5% 10% 15% 20% 2010 25% 30% 2020 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census Summary File 1 (SF1), 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC), 2010 72 Demographics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Older, rural Utah Median age by county, 2020 26.3 33 38 32.9 33.6 31.4 47.6 40.8 32.9 31.4 35.3 33.3 25.9 30.7 31.5 U.S. median age: 38.8 38.6 33.7 36.1 38.3 40.5 36.3 34.4 44.7 28.9 47.3 Utah median age: 31.3 43.3 34.6 37.6 44.9 25.9 47.6 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC) 3% DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS 13% 27% Demographics 73 34.4 44.7 28.9 31.3 47.3 43.3 34.6 An international city 37.6 44.9 25.9 47.6 Salt Lake City foreign-born population by region of origin, 2017-2021 3% 13% 27% Europe North America Asia Africa Latin America Oceania 47% 6% 4% Note: Foreign-born Salt Lake City residents account for about 15% of the city's population and 17% of the city's labor force. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2017-2021 American Community Survey 5-year Estimates 74 Demographics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 Bucking the trend Population change for Salt Lake City, Utah, and select cities, July 2021-July 2022 Salt Lake City -0.9% Springville -0.9% Kaysville 1.7% Layton -1.0% -1.2% Riverton -1.2% Provo -1.3% Draper -1.3% Roy State average 1.2% Cottonwood Heights -1.4% West Valley City -1.7% Holladay -1.8% Millcreek -1.9% Bountiful -2.1% Sandy -2.2% -2.3% Orem -2.3% Taylorsville Note: This chart draws from Bureau of the Census estimates of cities or towns with populations of 30,000 or more. The Utah Population Committee estimates differ at the state level and are not available at the subcounty level. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Vintage 2022 Population Estimates Married couples Married couples D A V I D E C C L E Swithout S C H Ochildren O L O F B Uwith S I Nchildren ESS Single parents with children Other family Nonfamily households Demographics 75 Bountiful -2.1% Sandy -2.2% Orem -2.3% Who's home? Taylorsville -2.3% Utah households by type, 2000-2020 2000 2010 2020 Married couples without children 0% Married couples with children 30.3% 28.1% 29.3% Other family 7.6% 31.7% 26.6% 10% Single parents with children 20% 30% 40% 7.7% 7.8% 36.6% Nonfamily households 6.4% 8.9% 50% 60% 26.4% 24.8% 4.3% 70% 23.7% 80% 90% 100% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2020 Census Demographic and Housing Characteristics File (DHC) 76 Demographics Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 More multicultural Racial and ethnic minority population shares, 1990 and 2022 1990 2022 9.5% Minority population 23.3% Non-hispanic white population Source: U.S. Census Bureau (1990 Decennial Census; 2020 U.S. Census Bureau Population Division) DAVID ECCLES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS Demographics 77 Probability of making informed decisions TM The whole point Accurate data and information 78 Utah Informed Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Utah Informed: Visual Intellection for 2024 K E M C . G A R D N E R P O L I C Y I N S T I T U T E S TA F F A N D A D V I S O R S Leadership Team Staff Natalie Gochnour, Associate Dean and Director Jennifer Robinson, Chief of Staff Mallory Bateman, Director of Demographic Research Phil Dean, Chief Economist and Senior Research Fellow Shelley Kruger, Accounting and Finance Manager Colleen Larson, Administrative and Events Manager Nate Lloyd, Director of Economic Research Dianne Meppen, Director of Community Research Laura Summers, Director of Industry Research Nicholas Thiriot, Communications Director James A. Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow Eric Albers, Public Policy Analyst Samantha Ball, Senior Research Associate Parker Banta, Public Policy Analyst Melanie Beagley, Public Policy Analyst Andrea Thomas Brandley, Senior Education Analyst Preston Brightwell, Dignity Index Field Director Kara Ann Byrne, Senior Research Associate Mike Christensen, Scholar-in-Residence Nate Christensen, Research Economist Dejan Eskic, Senior Research Fellow and Scholar Murphy Georger, Communications Specialist Emily Harris, Senior Demographer Michael T. Hogue, Senior Research Statistician Mike Hollingshaus, Senior Demographer Thomas Holst, Senior Energy Analyst Madeleine Jones, Dignity Index Field Director Jennifer Leaver, Senior Tourism Analyst Levi Pace, Senior Research Economist Praopan Pratoomchat, Senior Research Economist Heidi Prior, Public Policy Analyst Natalie Roney, Research Economist Shannon Simonsen, Research Coordinator Paul Springer, Senior Graphic Designer Faculty Advisors Matt Burbank, College of Social and Behavioral Science Elena Patel, David Eccles School of Business Nathan Seegert, David Eccles School of Business Senior Advisors Jonathan Ball, Office of the Legislative Fiscal Analyst Silvia Castro, Suazo Business Center Gary Cornia, Marriott School of Business Emma Houston, University of Utah Beth Jarosz, Population Reference Bureau Darin Mellott, CBRE Pamela S. Perlich, Community-at-Large Chris Redgrave, Community-at-Large Juliette Tennert, Community-at-Large Partners in the Community Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute Advisory Board The following individuals and entities help support the research mission of the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. Conveners Michael O. Leavitt Mitt Romney Legacy Partners The Gardner Company Christian and Marie Gardner Family Intermountain Health Clark and Christine Ivory Foundation KSL and Deseret News Larry H. & Gail Miller Family Foundation Mountain America Credit Union Salt Lake City Corporation Salt Lake County University of Utah Health Utah Governor’s Office of Economic Opportunity WCF Insurance Zions Bank Board Scott Anderson, Co-Chair Gail Miller, Co-Chair Doug Anderson Deborah Bayle Roger Boyer Michelle Camacho Sophia M. DiCaro Cameron Diehl Lisa Eccles Spencer P. Eccles Christian Gardner Executive Partners The Boyer Company Clyde Companies Sustaining Partners Dominion Energy Salt Lake Chamber Staker Parson Materials and Construction Wells Fargo Kem C. Gardner Kimberly Gardner Natalie Gochnour Brandy Grace Jeremy Hafen Rachel Hayes Clark Ivory Mike S. Leavitt Derek Miller Ann Millner Sterling Nielsen Jason Perry Ray Pickup Gary B. Porter Taylor Randall Jill Remington Love Brad Rencher Josh Romney Charles W. Sorenson James Lee Sorenson Vicki Varela Ex Officio (invited) Governor Spencer Cox Speaker Mike Schultz Senate President Stuart Adams Representative Angela Romero Senator Luz Escamilla Mayor Jenny Wilson Mayor Erin Mendenhall Salt Lake Chamber Board of Directors Derek B. Miller, President & CEO Gary W. Hoogeveen, Chair Nathan R. Callister, Vice Chair Allison Behjani Judd Cook Amanda Covington Marlise Fisher Nate Foster Darla Gill Natalie Gochnour Jeremy Hafen Kay Hall Rob Hitchcock Clark Ivory Matt Lyon Dr. Donna Milavetz Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute I Thomas S. Monson Center 411 E. South Temple Street Salt Lake City, UT 84111 801-585-5618 gardner.utah.edu I I DAV I D E CC L E S S C H O O L O F B U S I N E S S UNIVERSITY OF UTAH Sterling Nielsen David Petersen Gary B. Porter Pres. Taylor Randall Susan Robel Ryan Starks Linda Wardell