Memo from the S.J. Quinney College of Law Career Development Office, 2022-08-23: Covid, Vaccines, the Economy, and Law News

Memo produced by James Holbrook from the S.J. Quinney College of Law Career Development Office "for the Dean of the College of Law about Covid disease, coronavirus vaccines, the economy and employment."

Covid, Vaccines, the Economy, and Law News To: Dean Elizabeth Kronk Warner Date: August 23, 2022 From: S.J. Quinney College of Law Career Development Office Covid Cases and Deaths, Omicron Subvariants, and Vaccines The U.S. has exceeded one million official Covid deaths, the highest death toll of any nation. As of August 25th, the U.S. had 93.9 million officially reported Covid cases resulting in 1,039,000 officially reported Covid deaths since February 29, 2020. As of August 25th, the U.S. was averaging 92,700 new Covid cases a day (down from a week ago) and 505 new Covid deaths per day (up from a week ago). As of August 25th, the U.S. was averaging nearly 38,980 people in American hospitals with Covid (down from a week ago). The Covid pandemic has been a series of lessons about speed: the speed at which a novel virus can spread among humans; the speed at which the virus can rack up fatalities and cripple economies; the speed at which vaccines can be designed, produced, and approved; the speed at which misinformation and disinformation can undermine public health; and the speed at which new variants can evolve. The coronavirus has evolved quickly to adapt to us and to our vaccines, which some heath experts believe can lead to a prolonged endemic in which 100,000 to 250,000 Americans will die of Covid every year in the future. More than 60 years ago, the virologist Thomas Francis Jr. observed that influenza infections in childhood had lifelong effects: for decades after, people’s immune systems carried an imprint from their first flu virus, activating immune defenses against the version of the flu virus they initially encountered. Francis called this “the doctrine of original antigentic sin.” When people were first exposed to the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in early 2020 they had no natural immunity, and their immune systems were said to be “naïve” to the coronavirus. However, their first coronavirus vaccination or first Covid infection caused their immune system to rapidly activate immune memory cells that are on standby against new coronavirus exposure. Because there have been many different strains of the coronavirus, people now have different immune-imprinted Covid responses depending on which coronavirus vaccines (and how many shots) and which Covid infections they have had. The 1918 flu pandemic, for example, was caused by an H1N1 strain which has continued to circulate for decades. When the 2009 H1N1 flu pandemic occurred, older people who had been exposed to H1N1 in childhood had stronger immune responses than younger people who had been infected only with other strains of the flu virus. The more distant the current flu strain is to people’s initial exposure, the more susceptible they are to new infection. This may mean that the immune system is stuck fighting our “last war:” People who were initially exposed to an earlier coronavirus strain are more susceptible to infection by the Omicron BA.2 subvariant which is causing so many current breakthrough Covid cases. Current vaccines – which are still doing an exceptional job preventing us from getting severely ill – don’t prevent us from getting breakthrough Covid caused by a new subvariant. This may mean that a revamped coronavirus vaccine this fall – designed to protect us against the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants – may not protect us against an even newer Omicron subvariant. Both Pfizer and Moderna have requested the CDC to recommend emergency use authorization this fall of their revamped booster vaccines designed to protect against the BA.4 and BA.5 Omicron subvariants. A Brookings Institution report says the loss of work from at least two million Americans due to long Covid symptoms translates into roughly $170 billion a year in lost wages. Between 2 million and 4 million Americans aren’t working due to the long-term effects of Covid, including shortness of breath, extreme fatigue, and neurocognitive issues. 10% to 30% of people who get Covid get long-term Covid symptoms which can last months. It can occur after even mild cases, such as breakthrough Covid cases among the fully vaccinated and boosted. On August 17th, CDC Director Rochelle Walensky announced an overhaul of the agency meant to revamp everything from its operations to its culture, saying it had failed to meet expectations during the Covid pandemic. This will mean more rapidly turning research into health recommendations, working more effectively with other parts of the government, and improving how the CDC communicates with the public. The CDC has been criticized for inadequate testing and surveillance, not collecting important data on how the coronavirus was spreading and how vaccines were performing, for being under the misdirection of the Trump White House, and for missteps in communicating to a politically divided and increasingly skeptical public. For example, this month the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis issued a staff report arguing that the Trump White House pressured the FDA to authorize the immunosuppressant drug hydroxychloroquine as a treatment for hospitalized Covid patients, after the agency determined the drug’s benefits did not outweigh its risks. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra gave the FDA authority to approve subcutaneous injection of Monkeypox vaccine which immediately expanded Monkeypox vaccine availability fivefold – because only one-fifth of a dose is needed for subcutaneous injection. In a survey conducted in 19 upper- and middle-income countries, the Covid pandemic created deeper social divisions and exposed weaknesses in the political systems of those countries. The perception of increased social division and political system failure was highest in the U.S. where 81% of those surveyed held that view. In the U.S., feelings about how the government had dealt with Covid differed based on political affiliation: two-thirds of Democrats said the government handled the pandemic well, compared to 45% of Republicans. First Lady Jill Biden tested positive for Covid last week. The 71-year-old isolated, took the antiviral Paxlovid, and eventually tested negative. On August 24th, Ms. Biden again tested positive with asymptomatic “rebound” Covid (which is fairly common after taking Paxlovid). She again has isolated. Dr. Anthony Fauci announced he was retiring in December this year after fifty years of serving in federal government public healthcare positions. 2 The Economy On August 11th, the average national price for a gallon of gasoline at the pump dropped below $4 for the first time since March, a 20% decline from the June peak of $5 per gallon, reflecting slowing global demand for gasoline due to slowing economies everywhere. In the U.S., people are driving less, combining errands, postponing vacations, switching to more fuel-efficient cars, buying more electric vehicles, and using public transportation more. Federal data released on August 10th show inflation eased in July: overall prices remain elevated at an annualized rate of 8.5%, but that is down from a June peak of 9.1%. Although U.S. economic activity has declined for two consecutive quarters, the National Bureau of Economic Research has not declared the U.S. to be in a recession. The cost of shelter accounts for about 40% of core consumer prices, excluding food and energy, which are what the Federal Reserve uses to guide its interest rate policy decisions. Rising mortgage interest rates have forced many prospective first-time homebuyers out of the housing market, leaving them to compete in the red hot rental market where landlords, as annual leases expire, are increasing rents while more employees are working remotely at home from “a room of their own,” what Nobel-Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman calls “the Virginia Woolf effect.” Krugman predicts inflation will remain low in August, primarily due to falling gas prices, which won’t continue much longer thereafter. Global food prices fell in July, the effect of which probably will show up in supermarket prices in a few months. However, because underlying inflation remains high for many U.S. consumers, the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates this year, which probably will depress U.S. stock market values. On August 12th, the Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act, a sweeping climate, tax, and healthcare bill that enacts law major components of President Biden’s agenda. The legislation will reduce the cost of prescription drugs and pour billions of dollars into climate and energy programs to slow global warming by helping the U.S. cut greenhouse emissions by 40%. The Act also extends for three years expanded subsidies under the Affordable Care Act and allows Medicare to directly negotiate the prices of prescription drugs with big pharma. The cost of this package will be financed by a 15% corporate minimum tax on large corporations. The law also supports U.S. computer chip manufacturing and expands medical benefits to U.S. military veterans exposed to toxic burn pits. The Inflation Reduction Act will make it more affordable for Utah families to purchase energy efficient appliances, make energy-saving home repairs and improvements, install solar panels and battery storage systems, and subsidize the purchase of electric vehicles. The Act will expand clean-energy jobs in Utah, bringing $1 billion of investment in large-scale clean-power generation and storage to our state between now and 2030. Several major cruise lines are dropping vaccination requirements for ships leaving many ports in Europe and the U.S. Companies such as Apple and Peloton have told their corporate and office-based workers in the U.S. to come back into their offices next month, testing the balance of power between companies and their employees. Comcast has told workers to return several days a week after Labor Day. JPMorgan Chase’s CEO continues to bash remote work, raising concerns among some workers 3 that staying home might be hazardous to their careers. However, average office occupancy rates across 10 of America’s largest cities have barely budged upward in the past five months. Most workers want some work-from-home flexibility and 70% said they may quit if they don’t get it. Managers claim that in-person work improves collaboration, coaching, and mentoring. Peloton’s CEO said, “For those of you who don’t want to return to the office, we respect your choice [to quit].” High inflation has brought many early retirees back into the work force, but recent data suggest that trend is already ending. On August 24th, California announced a ban on the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035, a move that could speed a global transition to electric vehicles. California is the largest auto market in the U.S., and more than a dozen states typically follow California’s lead in setting their own auto emissions standards. Law News Kirkland & Ellis’s Salt Lake City office soon will have over 100 lawyers, making it one of the largest law firms in the state. K&E is charging coastal hourly rates and paying coastal compensation to its associates. Big Law had an outstanding financial performance in 2021, benefiting from record M&A and capital markets transactions. In 2021, law firm rosters increased to meet the increased client demand for legal services, but those lawyers are less productive in 2022 as client demand has fallen (e.g., hours billed have fallen 0.5% from a year ago). During the first half of 2022, Big Law net income margins decreased 14.3% from a year ago, and expenses (up 14.7%) outpaced revenue (5%) during the first half of this year. If these figures persist until year end, it will be the largest drop in Big Law profits in at least a decade. The surge in lateral attorney hires in recent years has created a retention problem for law firms that are now scrambling to keep poached talent from jumping ship. The 350 largest law firms made more than 13,000 lateral hires in the first six months of 2022. These firms could be in trouble retaining their lateral hires if the economy softens. On August 24th, the Biden administration announced up to $20,000 in debt cancellation to Pell Grant recipients and up to $10,000 in debt cancellation to non-Pell Grant recipients. Federal student loan borrowers who earn less than $125,000 per year and households earning less than $250,000 per year are eligible for this federal school debt cancellation. 4