Memo from the S.J. Quinney College of Law Career Development Office, 2022-05-03: Covid Deaths, Omicron, Vaccinations, the Economy, and Law News

Memo produced by James Holbrook from the S.J. Quinney College of Law Career Development Office "for the Dean of the College of Law about Covid disease, coronavirus vaccines, the economy and employment."

Covid Deaths, Omicron, Vaccinations, the Economy, and Law News To: Dean Elizabeth Kronk Warner Date: May 3, 2022 From: S.J. Quinney College of Law Career Development Office Covid Cases and Deaths, Omicron, and Vaccinations The World Health Organization has estimated that at least 15 million people have died of Covid worldwide since the start of the pandemic, although no one will ever know the true Covid death count. As of May 3rd, the U.S. had 81.5 million officially reported Covid cases resulting in 993,862 officially reported Covid deaths since February 29, 2020. As of May 3rd, the U.S. was averaging 60,000 new Covid cases a day (up from a week ago) and 338 new Covid deaths per day (down from a week ago) – at this rate the U.S. will exceed 1 million Covid deaths before the end of May. However, a report issued by the CDC said data from blood tests show that over 189 million Americans have been infected at least once from Covid, double the official case count. Before the Omicron variant, one-third of Americans had been infected with Covid, but by the end of February 2022, that rate had climbed to nearly 60%, including 75% of children and 60% of adults ages 18 to 49. The greatest increase in cases took place among those with the lowest rates of vaccination, i.e., children and young adults, because older adults are more likely to be fully vaccinated. During the Omicron surge in January and February 2022, 42% of Americans who died of Covid had been previously vaccinated. This highlights the waning protection of vaccines and the high risks for older and immunocompromised people, who are far more likely to suffer severe illness and death even when they are vaccinated and boosted. On April 18th a federal trial judge in Tampa overturned the CDC’s rule extending the mask mandate on planes, trains, and buses to May 3rd, contending the CDC had exceeded its statutory authority. On April 20th, the CDC asked the U.S. Justice Department to appeal Judge Kathryn Kimball Mizelle’s decision to the U.S. 11th Circuit Court of Appeals, because public health officials have worried that the ruling poses a risk to the CDC’s statutory authority to protect public health. An appeal could tee up an eventual battle at the Supreme Court which has already constrained the Biden administration’s coronavirus policies. Judge Mizelle was appointed by former President Trump as part of conservative efforts to rein in the authority of federal administrative agencies. Judge Mizelle’s decision could prevent the federal government from effectively responding to future pandemics. And, if left as a precedent, her decision could undermine the government’s authority to protect occupational health and safety and combat climate change. However, by appealing her decision to the ultra-conservative 11th Circuit, the government runs the risk it will be affirmed there or in the U.S. Supreme Court. Confusing CDC guidance on who should get and who needn’t get a second booster shot have undermined health officials’ credibility, especially among the historically underserved Black, Hispanic, and Native American communities. On April 26th, the Biden administration announced new steps to expand access to Pfizer’s Paxlovid antiviral pills and encourage broader use by those people who are in the first five days of contracting Covid. Tens of thousands of pharmacies will be able to order the pills, and the administration will launch more sites where people who test positive for Covid can begin immediate treatment with Paxlovid. Coronavirus mutations aren’t slowing down. New Omicron subvariants prove that. The Omicron BA.2.12 subvariant has mutated to BA.2.12.2 which is 25% more transmissible than the BA.2 subvariant. Between vaccinations and infections, there are not many people in the U.S. who are entirely “naïve” to the coronavirus. About 80 million Americans became infected for the first time this past winter from the Omicron BA.2 subvariant. And scientists in South Africa have identified BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants that elude neutralizing antibodies seen in people who have recovered from Covid infections caused by the BA.2 subvariant. These scientists believe that the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants have the “potential to result in a new infection wave.” Economic News The U.S. stock markets lost 9% of their value in April 2022, and the U.S. economy shrank at an annualized rate of 1.4% in the first three months of the year, the first such decline since the pandemic lockdown of 2020. Last year, the economy grew by 5.7%, the fastest full-year clip since 1984. The shrinkage in the U.S. economy in April fueled fears that a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth – as the Federal Reserve imposes as many as six more interest rate hikes this year. On April 22nd, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Fed may increase the 2022 series of interest rate hikes from 0.25% to 0.5 % per hike, and the St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard said 0.75% hikes should not be ruled out. In response, U.S. stock markets tanked: the more aggressive interest rate increases plus disappointing quarterly corporate earnings caused investors to reevaluate their holdings. Though consumer spending is still strong, the economic decline shows that some people are starting to fear they are dipping too far into savings or they’re tired of paying higher prices for nonessentials. And businesses are not restocking their depleting inventories as fast as last year: declining inventory purchases are responsible for a significant percentage of the GDP decline in the U.S. Compared to a year ago, the U.S. didn’t export as many things in the first quarter of 2022, but imported a lot more things, thereby increasing the trade deficit which plays a big role in how GDP is calculated. California drought, avian flu, war in Ukraine, and Texas politics at the U.S.-Mexican border have significantly increased the price of food: • • California water agencies have less water to give to farmers this year in the Central Valley where a quarter of U.S. food is grown. California’s rice farmers, for example, are leaving their fields fallow this year. The worst avian flu since 2015 has resulted in the killing of 29 million affected chickens, primarily egg-laying hens, causing the price of eggs to triple since November 2021. 2 • • The war in Ukraine has reduced the world’s supply of wheat, barley, and corn, driving up prices for these staples for human consumption as well as driving up the cost of animal feed. Texas Governor Greg Abbott, to protest the Biden administration’s border policies, instituted state inspections of trucks arriving in Texas from Mexico, causing significant delays and price increases for avocados. limes, and tomatoes. Law News The Law School Admission Council (LSAC), which administers the Law School Admission Test (LSAT), is creating an alternative program that will allow students to bypass the LSAT at participating law schools. The working title of the new program is the “LSAC’s Legal Education Program” which would be available to undergraduates interested in going to law school. The LSAC believes the decades old LSAT is not the best measurement for all prospective law students and therefore wants to innovate the law school entrance process. Historically, minorities don’t do as well as Whites on the LSAT, often because they do not have the same resources for taking LSAT prep courses. Some law schools already allow Graduate Record Examination scores as an alternative to the LSAT for law school admission. The ABA announced that first-time takers of a Bar exam achieved an 80.28% pass rate (counting diploma privilege Bar admission) in 2021, down more than 3% from the 83.66% pass rate (including diploma privilege) in 2020. The ABA Bar passage standard adopted in May 2019, known as 316, requires 75% of a law school’s graduates who sit for the Bar to pass it within two years. A new Bar exam will launch in 2026. The National Conference of Bar Examiners, which administers the exam in 54 jurisdictions, is creating a more skills-based test that is more relevant to today’s real-life lawyering. The new exam will include legal research, investigation and evaluation, client counseling and advising, negotiation and dispute resolution, and client relationship and management skills. The new exam is likely to be a combination of short-answer, multiple-choice, and longer legal-drafting questions. Minorities do worse on the current Bar exam, which hurts efforts to diversify the legal profession. But it’s unclear whether state supreme courts will adopt the new exam. Of the 2020 law school graduating class, 10.5% had J.D. advantage jobs in business including in accounting, biotech, compliance, consulting, contract management and procurement, corporate governance and sustainability, crypto and blockchain technology, cybersecurity, healthcare, human resources, insurance and risk management, intellectual property and licensing, investment banking, legal operations and technology, privacy and data protection, regulatory affairs, and venture capital. The pay in J.D. advantage jobs is competitive with most law firm jobs, and work-life balance is better. The sanctions against Russia issued by the U.S. and many other countries are forcing lawyers to provide risk assessments – and not just narrow legal advice – to their clients who have done business in Russia or with Russian companies. The list of sanctions seems to grow daily, targeting individual oligarchs and Russia’s defense, transportation, trade, and financial sectors. Hundreds of companies have pulled out of Russia all together despite existing contracts, raising concerns they could face lawsuits from parties left behind in Russia, so law firms are helping 3 their clients decide whether to pull their business out of Russia and to understand the risks if they stay. A study by the Yale Chief Executive Leadership Institute showed that over the past two months the market-capitalization-weighted returns of 600 publicly traded companies that curtailed operations in Russia dramatically outperformed public companies that continued to do business in Russia. In the current hot U.S. economy, large and midsize law firms have a staffing shortage partly as a result of firms that needed to hire more support staff when their attorney ranks increased and worked remotely last year. These law firms also are facing worker competition from other industries for marketing, communications, IT, and other business professionals. While salary is always a factor in this competition, many staffing candidates are prioritizing other criteria. Software companies, consulting firms, and life sciences conglomerates all offer competitive pay, but also may offer advancement opportunities and a culture where business professionals feel more valued than in a law firm which prioritizes attorney needs over those of the business professionals on staff. Law firms are traditionally high-pressure, high-performance, inflexibly in-office environments regardless of role, which is not for everyone, especially now after working remotely for two years. And law firms traditionally have been reluctant or even unwilling to consider hiring business professionals from non-law industries like banking, finance, marketing, or accounting firms. To compete for business professionals, law firms need to become more flexible. Big Law firms disagree about fully remote vs. flexible hybrid vs. mandatory return-to-office work models. Cooley announced it has no in-house-work requirement for its attorneys; its associates can continue to work remotely. Davis Polk, by contrast, in its inflexible hybrid work model, is mandating full office attendance for all attorneys three days a week from Tuesdays through Thursdays. Washington, D.C. law firms, with their historical roots in government regulation and contracting, are well set to weather economic downturns this year. Many D.C. firms also have grown their litigation and transaction practices to create a well-diversified business mix which is a hedge against economic cycles. The D.C. firms in the Big Law 100 have had consistent growth year after year, though not the spectacular growth that other Big Law 100 firms elsewhere experienced in 2021. Small and regional law firms are looking at mergers to meet competition from larger law firms opening offices in smaller and regional markets. Large national firms have acquired small boutique local law firms and hired partners and associates away from regional firms. Small and regional law firm mergers allow the emerging firms to have both broader and more specialized practices. In Salt Lake City, for example, Jones Waldo has effectively merged with Parsons Behle when Parsons Behle hired many Jones Waldo lawyers, resulting in Jones Waldo closing its 150-yearold practice at the end of this year. This will enable Parson Behle to compete more effectively with the 30 or so Big Law 200 firms which have opened Salt Lake City offices over the past few years. Big Law 100 firms increased diversity in 2021 during the hot lateral hiring market which is projected to subside in 2022: 4 Increases in diversity hiring will be much more difficult this year when law firms need fewer lateral associates and can tell prospective laterals, “To come with us, you need to have been in the top 10% of your class at a top ten law school.” 5