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Show Covid, Vaccines, the Economy, and Law News To: Dean Elizabeth Kronk Warner Date: November 1, 2022 From: S.J. Quinney College of Law Career Development Office Covid Cases and Deaths, Omicron Subvariants, and Reformulated Vaccines As of November 1st, the U.S. had 97.3 million officially reported Covid cases resulting in 1,066,258 officially reported Covid deaths since February 29, 2020. As of November 1st, the U.S. was averaging 387,167 new Covid cases a day (up from a week ago) and 168 new Covid deaths per day (down from a week ago). As of November 1st, there were 27,048 people in U.S. hospitals with Covid (up from a week ago), including those admitted for Covid and those admitted for something else and found to have Covid after admission. Bivalent booster shots from Pfizer and Moderna weren’t more effective against the dominant Omicron strain than four doses of their original Covid vaccines, according to an early, small study. The results don’t mean that getting a bivalent shot has no benefit. However, they raise the question whether the switch to the new version of the vaccine was necessary. Only about 20 million Americans have received a bivalent booster. The Biden administration is worried that tens of thousands of Americans could die needlessly this winter if they don’t get free Covid vaccine shots. Entering the nation’s third coronavirus winter, the nation is better off than in the past two: Effective Covid treatments and booster shots are widely available, and most Americans have some protection against serious Covid illness or death due to vaccinations, prior infection, or both. 55% of Americans approve of President Biden’s handling of the nation’s coronavirus response. The flu season in the U.S. this winter looks ominous because it tends to track flu cases occurring during winter in the Southern Hemisphere (typically May through October). This year, flu cases in Australia and New Zealand began earlier than usual and the number of cases and hospitalizations there were markedly higher. The flu season has begun in October in the U.S., earlier than usual, and public health experts have advised high-risk Americans to get a flu shot now: Tt halves the rate of hospitalization for young children and older adults who contract the flu. Older adults and immunocompromised people should get both Covid and flu shots this winter. Unfortunately, Covid vaccine hesitancy has spilled over to flu vaccinations this year. The Economy According to new research on “long social distancing,” worries about catching Covid kept about three million Americans out of the workforce in the first half of 2022, reducing the nation’s economic output by $250 billion. Those not working or looking for a job in part due to infection fears totaled about 2% of the labor force. Cautious people and those with health conditions that place them at higher risk of death or serious illness continued their social distancing practices. As many as four million Americans have dropped out of the workforce due to long Covid, with an estimated economic cost of long Covid at $3.7 trillion. The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.6% in the third quarter of 2022, marking its first increase in 2022 and a sharp turnaround after six months of contraction. However, inflation – especially in the cost of gasoline at the pump – has been one of the biggest challenges politically for Democrats this year. Overall prices have risen 8.2% in the past year, although the cost of many necessities, including food and gas, has grown at much higher rates. Consumer spending has dropped and consumers are using savings and new credit card debt to try to maintain their life styles. Mortgage interest rates hit 7% for the first time in two decades. The housing market has taken a direct hit from the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation. Home prices and demand for mortgages and refinances are falling at a record rate. This will be the first year since 2011 to see a decline in single-family starts. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates another 0.75% in early November. U.S. stock and bond markets are beginning to price in their assumption there will be some recession in the next 12 months. It is not yet clear whether a recession will be shallow or deep, short or long. Bloomberg has put the probability of a recession in 2023 at 100%. A deep recession would throw millions of employees out of work, but the current unemployment rate is 3.5%, the lowest it’s been in 50 years. However, until inflation comes down, the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates, which will slow the economy even further, increasing the risk of a recession. Several segments of the U.S. economy are already experiencing a recession (defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth) including housing and some consumer goods. Corporate earnings growth almost certainly will decline, stocks will remain volatile, and inflation will remain well above the Fed’s target of 2% in 2023. Typically, stock market values recover in the year after midterm elections. However, a recession must be severe enough to return the economy to low inflation, and that does not seem probable in 2023. A year ago, draymen – America’s independent truck drivers who move shipping containers from ports to their next destination – were so busy they turned away business and charged as much as they wanted. Now, a year later, they are waiting for the phone to ring: Ports have emptied the container ships which last year were parked offshore waiting to unload, consumer demand has cooled, and retailers have too much inventory. American tech workers who are currently employed are experiencing a new anxiety about whether they will “go forward” or lose their jobs to “rightsizing” or a “reduction in force.” Elon Musk, for example, who recently purchased Twitter for $44 billion, is aggressively cutting “positions” and reducing Twitter’s payroll trying to make it profitable for him and his investors. Tech companies are not saying they are making “layoffs” because they have no current plans to rehire the workers who lose their jobs, given how high interest rates are and how uncertain the economy is into next year. The poverty rate for seniors in the U.S. ticked up to 10.7% in 2021 from 9.5% in 2020. Social Security benefits will be increased 8.7% for 2023. The lowest one fifth of income is distributed to households headed by seniors which get 80% of their income from Social Security. This means many seniors have to keep working into their 60s and 70s, and older workers who stepped 2 away during the Covid pandemic have to take jobs now at a lower wage than they earned in the past. Data collected from two million U.S. employees show American workers are less engaged in their work compared to a year ago. They are less motivated, less productive, less loyal to their current employer, and less likely to recommend their workplace to others. Employee engagement dropped to 62.9% in 2021 from a peak of 70.6% in April 2020. One positive engagement metric in 2021 was inclusiveness: Employees felt more included in what was going on, even if they weren’t necessarily happy about it. Employers are more mindful, empathetic, and trying harder to make sure employee voices are heard. And there is a greater focus on diversity, equity, and inclusion. However, although a sense inclusiveness is up, the sense of being well informed was down. Law News Yesterday the U.S. Supreme Court heard arguments over whether affirmative action in college admissions is constitutional. It appeared from the justices’ questions that the Court’s conservative majority supports a constitutional ban on racial preferences. Chief Justice Roberts believes that affirmative action is unlawful discrimination based on race. Justice Jackson believes the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments were adopted in a race-conscious way to protect newly freed slaves and their descendants. The U.S. Sentencing Commission met on October 28th for the first time in four years with a full slate of new members. The Commission is set to address policy priorities include providing guidance on the 2018 First Step Act that can get people out of prison with so-called “compassionate release.” “Virtual” law firms, which have little or no office space, allow tier partners to keep more of what they earn because they don’t have as much overhead. Virtual firms expect that to be a recruiting advantage. However, virtual partners are likely taking in a lot less revenue than Big Law partners. 3 |
