Water consumption and economic growth in Jordan: an input-output analysis

The problem of water shortage in Jordan has increased over time and has recently become an acute problem, particularly during the drought. Various factors contribute to water shortages in Jordan such as the arid climate of Jordan, the increasing demographic pressure, the expansion of the economy, and the water rights conflict over the Jordan River. Moreover, changes in the sectoral composition of water demand in the economy call for a countrywide water plan involving the rethinking of policy regarding the present plan of allocation of water resources among different uses. The objective of this research is to show how the problem of water shortages in Jordan could affect the process of its economic growth and development. To do so, we estimate two growth scenarios for the economy of Jordan over the period 1990 to 2000 and take these as alternative objective functions (or welfare functions) for economic and social development in Jordan. Our primary concern in to determine the feasibility of achieving these goals. The model utilized in this study is an input-output matrix of Jordan for the year 1983. Using that, we determine the effects on the level of demand for water of an expansion in the Jordanian economy as it pursues its plan for growth and development. The primary focus of this research is on the demand for water created by the requirements of water for different sectors as the result of meeting the growth goals explained by the plan. The study has shown that with the limited supply, there will be a deficit under both growth scenarios in the water supply in Jordan from the year 1995 onward. Finally, the study has focused on various plans that may alleviate the problem by encouraging water conservation at three broad levels: the domestic, the industrial, and the agricultural. It is necessary to emphasize other measures for increasing water supply through sources such as; recycling effluent, desalination, improving storage and delivery systems, studying the feasibility of cloud seeding, and importing water from water-rich neighboring countries. Moreover, the issue of water rights between Jordan and its neighboring countries must be expeditiously resolved.

B a s s a m A b u a l - F o ul d i s s e r t a t i o n s u b m i t t e d t o t h e f a c u l t y of U n i v e r s i t y Utah i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l l m e n t t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e d e g r e e of D o c t o r P h i l o s o p hy D e p a r t m e n t E c o n o m i cs U n i v e r s i t y U t ah A u g u s t 1994 WATER CONSUMPTION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN JORDAN: AN INPUT-OUTPUT ANALYSIS By Bassam M. Abual-Foul A dissertation submitted to the faculty of The University of Utah in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Economics The University of Utah August 1994 C o p y r i g h t © B a s s a m M. A b u a l - F o u l 1994 A l l R i g h t s R e s e r v ed Copyright e Bassam Abual-Foul 1994 All Rights Reserved S U P E R V I S O R Y C O M M I T T E E A P P R O V AL s u b m i t t e d Bassam Mohammed Abual-Foul t h e c o m m i t t e e satisfactory. THE UNIVERSITY OF UTAH GRADUATE SCHOOL SUPERVISORY COMMITTEE APPROVAL of a dissertation submitted by Bassam Mohammed Abual-Foul This dissertation has been read by each member of the following supervisory committee and by majority vote has been found to be satisfactory. r l Ch~r: Lawrence Nabers ~{::e0=L J1~ Richard Fowles THE U N I V E R S I T Y OF UTAH G R A D U A T E SCHOOL F I N A L R E A D I N G A P P R O V A L dissertation Abual-Foul in } t s f i n ai form and have found that (1) its format, citations and bibliographic style are consistent and acceptable; (2) its illustrative materials including figures, tables, and charts are in place; and (3) the final manuscript is satisfactory to the supervisory committee and is ready for submission to The Graduate School. Date/ Lawrence Nabers Chair, Supervisory Committee Ann W. Hart Dean of The Graduate School UNIVERSITY GRADUATE SCHOOL FINAL READING APPROVAL I To the Graduate Council of the University of Utah: I have read the dissenation of Bassam Mohammed Abua l-Foul in its final fOIm fonnat, final ready for submission to The Gradua~OOI. D"a2re /2r [, 7/ 9'1 dL.a.!wLrewnc Ie 'N~abke rs 11 ~ Approved for the Major Department James M. Rock Chair/Dean Approved for the Graduate Council AnnW.Han p r o b l e m w a t e r s h o r t a g e i n J o r d a n h a s i n c r e a s ed o v e r t i m e r e c e n t l y a c u t e p r o b l e m, p a r t i c u l a r l y d u r i n g t h e d r o u g h t . V a r i o u s f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t e to w a t e r s h o r t a g e s i n J o r d a n s u c h a s t h e a r i d c l i m a t e J o r d a n, t h e i n c r e a s i n g d e m o g r a p h i c p r e s s u r e , t h e e x p a n s i o n t he e c o n o m y , t h e w a t e r r i g h t s c o n f l i c t o v e r t h e J o r d a n R i v e r. M o r e o v e r , c h a n g e s i n t h e s e c t o r a l c o m p o s i t i o n w a t e r demand i n t h e c a l l f o r c o u n t r y w i d e w a t e r p l a n i n v o l v i n g t he r e t h i n k i n g of p o l i c y r e g a r d i n g t h e p r e s e n t p l a n of a l l o c a t i on o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s d i f f e r e n t u s e s. o b j e c t i v e t h i s r e s e a r c h i s t o t h e p r o b l em o f w a t e r s h o r t a g e s i n J o r d a n c o u l d a f f e c t t h e p r o c e s s i ts e c o n o m i c g r o w t h and d e v e l o p m e n t . To do s o , we e s t i m a t e two g r o w t h s c e n a r i o s f o r t h e economy of J o r d a n o v e r t h e p e r i od 1 9 9 0 t o 2000 a n d t a k e t h e s e a s a l t e r n a t i v e o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o ns ( o r w e l f a r e f u n c t i o n s ) f o r e c o n o m i c a n d s o c i a l d e v e l o p m e n t in J o r d a n . Our p r i m a r y c o n c e r n i s t o d e t e r m i n e t h e f e a s i b i l i t y of a c h i e v i n g t h e s e g o a l s . The m o d e l u t i l i z e d i n t h i s s t u d y i s an i n p u t - o u t p u t m a t r i x of J o r d a n f o r t h e y e a r 1 9 8 3 . U s i n g t h a t, we d e t e r m i n e t h e e f f e c t s on t h e l e v e l of demand f o r w a t e r of a n e x p a n s i o n i n t h e J o r d a n i a n economy as i t p u r s u e s i t s p l an f o r g r o w t h and d e v e l o p m e n t. ABSTRACT The problem of water shortage in Jordan has increased over time and has recently become an acute problem, particularly during the drought. Various factors contribute to water shortages in Jordan such as the arid climate of Jordan, the increasing demographic pressure, the expansion of the economy, and the water rights conflict over the Jordan River. Moreover, changes in the sectoral composition of water demand in the economy call for a countrywide water plan involving the rethinking policy regarding the present plan allocation of water resources among different uses. The objective of this research is to show how the problem of water shortages in Jordan could affect the process of its economic growth development. so, estimate two growth scenarios for the Jordan over the period 1990 to and take these as alternative objective functions or welfare functions) for economic and social development in Jordan. primary concern is to determine the feasibility achieving these goals. model utilized in this study is input-output matrix Jordan for the year 1983. Using that, determine the effects the level for water an expansion in the Jordanian it pursues its plan for growth and development. p r i m a r y f o c u s t h i s r e s e a r c h i s t h e f or w a t e r c r e a t e d t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s w a t e r f o r d i f f e r e nt s e c t o r s a s t h e r e s u l t m e e t i n g t h e g r o w t h g o a l s e x p l a i n e d by t h e p l a n . s t u d y h a s t h a t w i t h t h e l i m i t e d s u p p l y, t h e r e w i l l d e f i c i t u n d e r b o t h g r o w t h s c e n a r i o s t he w a t e r s u p p l y i n J o r d a n f r om t h e y e a r o n w a r d. F i n a l l y , t h e s t u d y h a s f o c u s e d v a r i o u s p l a n s t h a t a l l e v i a t e t h e p r o b l e m e n c o u r a g i n g w a t e r c o n s e r v a t i o n at t h r e e b r o a d l e v e l s : t h e d o m e s t i c , t h e i n d u s t r i a l , t he a g r i c u l t u r a l . I t i s n e c e s s a r y t o e m p h a s i z e o t h e r m e a s u r e s f or i n c r e a s i n g w a t e r s u p p l y t h r o u g h s o u r c e s s u c h a s ; r e c y c l i ng e f f l u e n t , d e s a l i n a t i o n , i m p r o v i n g s t o r a g e d e l i v e ry s y s t e m s , s t u d y i n g t h e f e a s i b i l i t y c l o u d s e e d i n g , and i m p o r t i n g w a t e r w a t e r - r i c h n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s. M o r e o v e r , t h e i s s u e w a t e r r i g h t s b e t w e e n J o r d a n i ts n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s e x p e d i t i o u s l y r e s o l v e d. • v The primary focus of this research is on the demand for water created by the requirements of water for different sectors as the result of meeting the growth goals explained by the plan. The study has shown that with the limited supply, there will be a deficit under both growth scenarios in the water supply in Jordan from the year 1995 onward. Finally, the study has focused on various plans that may alleviate the problem by encouraging water conservation at three broad levels: the domestic, the industrial, and the agricultural. It is necessary to emphasize other measures for increasing water supply through sources such as; recycling effluent, desalination, improving systems, studying the feasibility storage of cloud and delivery seeding, and importing water from water-rich neighboring countries. Moreover, the issue of water rights between Jordan and its neighboring countries must be expeditiously resolved. v my m o t h e r , b r o t h e r s and s i s t e r s , and t o t h e memory o f my f a t h e r , I d e d i c a t e d t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n. To mother, rothers sisters, to the of father, dedicated this dissertation . J J., , ';I~i ., .;~J ., .;.01., JP ( <.; t;., <.S ~ ~ <.,-. ~ <?.0 I., iv L I S T x xii C h a p t e r 1 . 1 1 . 1 R a t i o n a l e t h e R e s e a r c h 1 . 2 M e t h o d o l o g y 4 1 . 3 O r g a n i z a t i o n of t h e S t u d y 5 1 . 4 D a t a S o u r c e s 7 1 . 5 L i t e r a t u r e R e v i e w 8 2 . 16 2 . 1 T o p o g r a p h y 2 . 1 . 1 J o r d a n V a l l e y 2 . 1 . 2 H i g h l a n d s 2 . 1 . 3 D e s e r t P l a t e a u 19 2 . 2 C l i m a t e 2 0 2 . 2 . 1 T e m p e r a t u r e 2 0 2 . 2 . 2 P r e c i p i t a t i o n 23 2 . 3 3 . 3 . 1 H i s t o r i c B a c k g r o u n d 3 . 2 E c o n o m i c C o n d i t i o n s 3 . 2 . 1 G r o w t h a n d P e r f o r m a n c e 4 3 3 . 2 . 2 P o p u l a t i o n 51 3 . 2 . 2 . 1 L a b o r F o r c e E m p l o y m e n t . . . . 5 6 3 . 2 . 3 A g r i c u l t u r a l S e c t o r 3 . 2 . 4 I n d u s t r i a l S e c t o r 3 . 2 . 5 S e r v i c e s S e c t o r 72 3 . 3 72 4 . WATER RESOURCES IN JORDAN 4 . 1 A v a i l a b i l i t y W a t e r R e s o u r c e s 75 4 . 2 S o u r c e s W a t e r S u p p l y 75 CONTENTS ABSTRACT LIST OF FIGURES ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Chapter 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 Rationale of Methodology Organization Data Sources the Research of the Study Literature Review 2. PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE REGION 2.1 Topography ..... 2.1.1 The Jordan Valley 2.1.2 The Highlands 2.1.3 The Desert Plateau 2.2 Climate ..... . 2.2.1 Temperature 2.2.2 Precipitation 2.3 Summary ..... . 3. HISTORIC AND ECONOMIC BACKGROUND OF THE REGION ..... . 3.1 Historic Background 3.2 Economic Conditions 3.2.1 Growth and Performance 3.2.2 Population ..... 3.2.2.1 Labor Force and Employment 3.2.3 Agricultural Sector 3.2.4 Industrial Sector 3.2.5 Services Sector 3.3 Summary ...... . 4. 4.1 Availability of Water Resources 4.2 Sources of Water Supply .... iv Xll 2 4 5 7 8 17 17 19 19 20 20 23 33 34 35 42 43 51 56 66 68 72 72 74 75 75 4 . 2 . 1 S u r f a c e W a t e r 76 4 . 2 . 2 G r o u n d W a t e r 8 3 4 . 2 . 3 R e c y c l i n g W a t e r 88 4 . 2 . 4 O t h e r S o u r c e s 8 9 4 . 3 92 5 . 94 5 . 1 T h e o r e t i c a l 5 . 1 . 1 A s s u m p t i o n s t h e 5 . 2 T y p e s M u l t i p l i e r s 5 . 3 103 6 . 104 6 . 1 O v e r v i e w J o r d a n ' s I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e s . . 105 6 . 1 . 1 I n p u t - O u t p u t T a b l e 105 6 . 1 . 1 . 1 P r o c e s s i n g S e c t o r s 105 6 . 1 . 1 . 2 F i n a l S e c t o r s 116 6 . 1 . 1 . 3 F i n a l P a y m e n t s S e c t o r 117 6 . 1 . 1 . 4 T o t a l a n d T o t a l S u p p l y . . 117 6 . 1 . 2 I n p u t - O u t p u t T e c h n i c a l C o e f f i c i e n ts . T a b l e 118 6 . 1 . 3 D i r e c t I n d i r e c t R e q u i r e m e n ts T a b l e . . 118 6 . 2 E m p i r i c a l R e s u l t s 120 . 6 . 2 . 1 I n p u t - O u t p u t M u l t i p l i e r s 120 6 . 2 . 1 . 1 O u t p u t M u l t i p l i e r s 120 6 . 2 . 1 . 2 M u l t i p l i e r s 123 6 . 2 . 1 . 3 M u l t i p l i e r s 130 6 . 3 140 7 . 142 7 . 1 W a t e r R e q u i r e m e n t s i n t h e B a s e Y e a r , . . . 143 7 . 1 . 1 W a t e r C o e f f i c i e n t s t h e J o r d a n i an 143 7 . 2 P r o j e c t i o n A n a l y s i s : P e r i o d 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 0 . . . 151 7 . 2 . 1 A l t e r n a t i v e G r o w t h S c e n a r i o s 153 7 . 2 . 2 P r o j e c t i o n F i n a l S e c t o r . . . . 155 7 . 2 . 3 P r o j e c t i o n W a t e r R e q u i r e m e n t s 165 7 . 2 . 3 . 1 P r o j e c t e d D i r e c t Water R e q u i r e m e n t s 165 7 . 2 . 3 . 2 P r o j e c t e d T o t a l Water R e q u i r e m e n t s 177 7 . 3 189 8 . 191 8 . 1 D o m e s t i c L e v e l 200 8 . 2 I n d u s t r i a l L e v e l 201 v i i i 4.2.1 Surface Water 4.2.2 Ground Water 4.2.3 Recycling Water 4.2.4 Other Sources 4.3 Summary 5. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK 5.1 5.2 5.3 Theoretical Model 5.1.1 Assumptions of Types of Multipliers Summary . . . . . the Model 6. EMPIRICAL APPLICATIONS OF THE THEORETICAL MODEL 83 89 95 98 99 103 FOR LONG-RUN PLANNING . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104 6.1 An Overview of Jordan's Input-Output Tables 6.1.1 The Input-Output Flow Table 6.1.1.1 The Processing Sectors 6.1.1.2 Final Demand Sectors 6.1.1.3 Final Payments Sector 6.1.1.4 Total Demand and Total Supply 6.1.2 Input-Output Technical Coefficients Table . . . . . . . . . . . 6.1.3 The Direct and Indirect Requirements Table . .. .... . 6.2 Empirical Results ..... . 6.2.1 Input-Output Multipliers 6.2.1.1 Output Multipliers 6.2.1.2 Income Multipliers 6.2.1.3 Employment Multipliers 6.3 Summary ... 7. ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS 7.1 Water Requirements in the Base Year, 1983 7.1.1 Water Coefficients of the Jordanian Economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7.2 Projection Analysis: The Period 1990-2000 7.2.1 Two Alternative Growth Scenarios. 7.2.2 Projection of Final Demand Sector 7.2.3 Projection of Water Requirements. 7.2.3.1 The Projected Direct Water Requirements . . . . . . 7.2.3.2 The Projected Total Water Requirements . 7.3 Summary 8. POLICY CONSIDERATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 8.1 The Domestic Level. 8.2 The Industrial Level viii 105 105 105 116 117 117 118 118 120 120 120 123 130 140 142 143 143 151 153 155 165 165 177 189 191 200 201 8 The A g r i c u l t u r a l L e v e l 201 APPENDIX: CONVERSION FACTORS 206 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY 208 i x 8 . 3 The Agricultural Level APPENDIX : CONVERSION FACTORS SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY . . . . ix 201 206 208 L I S T F i g u r e 2 . 1 R e l i e f J o r d a n 2 . 2 D i s t r i b u t i o n R a i n f a l l i n J o r d a n 2 9 3 . 1 C a p i t a a t M a r k e t P r i c e s , J o r d an ( 1 9 8 5 - 1 9 9 0 ) 45 3 . 2 D o m e s t i c P r o d u c t a t F a c t o r C o s t (in C o n s t a n t and C u r r e n t P r i c e s ) 4 6 3 . 3 Growth R a t e s of GDP a t F a c t o r C o s t f o r 1 9 8 6 - 1 9 9 0 . . 49 3 . 4 S e c t o r a l C o n t r i b u t i o n t o GDP a t C o n s t a n t F a c t or C o s t , 1985 53 3 . 5 S e c t o r a l C o n t r i b u t i o n t o a t C o n s t a n t F a c t or C o s t , 1990 54 3 . 6 Unemployment R a t e i n J o r d a n ( 1 9 8 1 - 1 9 8 9 ) 65 4 . 1 Water S u p p l y i n J o r d a n 77 4 . 2 S u r f a c e W a t e r B a s i n s i n J o r d a n 79 4 . 3 A v e r a g e A n n u a l S t r e a m F l o w S u r f a c e W a t er R e s o u r c e s i n J o r d a n i t s B a s i n 4 . 4 W a t e r B a s i n s i n J o r d a n 4 . 5 W a t e r R e s o u r c e s i n J o r d a n i t s Major B a s i n 86 7 . 1 A l l o c a t i o n W a t e r O u t p u t f o r I n t e r m e d i a t e F i n a l S e c t o r s , J o r d a n , 145 7 . 2 A l l o c a t i o n W a t e r O u t p u t i t s U s e s, J o r d a n 148 8 . 1 T o t a l W a t e r a n d S u p p l y i n J o r d a n E s t i m a t ed f o r 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 0 , F i r s t S c e n a r i o 196 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2.1 Relief Map of Jordan 2.2 Distribution of Rainfall in Jordan 3.1 Per Capita GNP at Market Prices, Jordan (1985-1990) .... . ..... . 3.2 Gross Domestic Product at Factor Cost (in Constant and Current Prices) 18 29 . . . 45 46 3.3 Growth Rates of GDP at Factor Cost for 1986-1990 49 3.4 Sectoral Contribution to GDP at Constant Factor Cost, 1985 . . . . .. ....... .... 53 3.5 Sectoral Contribution to GDP at Constant Factor Cost, 1990 . . . . . . . . . . . 54 3.6 Unemployment Rate in Jordan (1981-1989) 65 4.1 Water Supply in Jordan. . . . 77 4.2 Surface Water Basins in Jordan 79 4.3 Average Annual Stream Flow of Surface Water Resources in Jordan by its Basin . 80 4.4 Ground Water Basins in Jordan 85 4.5 Ground Water Resources in Jordan by its Major Basin . . .86 7.1 Allocation of Water Output for Intermediate & Final Demand Sectors, Jordan, 1983 . 145 7.2 Allocation of Water Output Among its Uses, Jordan 1983 . . . . . . 148 8.1 Total Water Demand and Supply in Jordan Estimated for 1990-2000, First Growth Scenario . . . . . 196 8 . 2 T o t a l W a t e r a n d S u p p l y i n J o r d a n E s t i m a t ed f o r 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 0 , S e c o n d G r o w t h S c e n a r io x i 8 .2 Total Water Demand and Supply in Jordan Estimated for 1990-2000, Second Growth Scenario . . . . . . 197 xi w o u l d l i k e t o a c k n o w l e d g e a n d e x p r e s s a p p r e c i a t i on t o t h o s e s u p p o r t e d d u r i n g s t u d y p e r i o d . F i r s t , w o u l d l i k e t o t h a n k t h e c h a i r d o c t o r a l d i s s e r t a t i on c o m m i t t e e P r o f e s s o r L a w r e n c e N a b e r s , a n d t h e c o m m i t t e e members P r o f e s s o r J a m e s G a n d e r a n d P r o f e s s o r R i c h a r d F o w l e s f o r t h e ir g u i d a n c e c o n t r i b u t i o n i n t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n . t h e m p r o v i d e d w i t h t h e u l t i m a t e s u p p o r t a n d h e l p t h r o u g h o ut t h e p e r i o d s t u d y. a l s o w i s h t o t h a n k o t h e r f a c u l t y , c o l l e a g u e s, s t a f f , f r i e n d s , g a v e t h e i r e n c o u r a g e m e n t a s s i s t a n c e . P r o f . G a i l B l a t t e n b e r g e r , P r o f. M e r v a , P r o f . S t e p h e n R e y n o l d s , P r o f . C a m p b e l l , G i n g er H e a d , N a m a l a , D w i j e n R a n g n e k a r , F a r a j B a r a n i . a l s o t h a n k t h e d e p a r t m e n t of e c o n o m i c s a n d i t s s t a f f f o r t h e i r s u p p o r t d u r i n g my p e r i o d of s t u d y. F i n a l l y , l i k e t o e x p r e s s d e e p l o v e a p p r e c i a t i o n t o m o t h e r , b r o t h e r s , a n d s i s t e r s t a u g h t t h e p a t i e n c e t h e v a l u e e d u c a t i o n . W i t h o u t t h e ir p a t i e n c e a n d m o r a l s u p p o r t , t h i s r e s e a r c h w o u l d n o t h a v e b e en a c c o m p l i s h e d . S p e c i a l t h a n k s a n d g r a t i t u d e t o c o u s i n A l i A b u a l - F o u l f o r p r o v i d i n g w i t h t h e d a t a u s e d i n t h is s t u d y . i n d e b t e d t o h im f o r h i s c o u n t l e s s e n c o u r a g e m e n ts ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to acknowledge and express my appreciation to those who supported me during my study period. First, I would like to thank the chair of my doctoral dissertation committee Professor Lawrence Nabers, and the committee members Professor James Gander and Professor Richard Fowles for their guidance and contribution in this dissertation. Each one of them provided me with the ultimate support and help throughout the period of study. I also wish to thank many other faculty, colleagues, staff, and friends, who gave me their encouragement and assistance. To name a few: Prof. Gail Blattenberger, Prof. Mary Merva, Prof. Stephen Reynolds, Prof. Al Campbell, Ginger Head, Solomon Namala, Dwijen Rangnekar, and Faraj Barani. I also thank the department economics and its staff for their support during period study. Finally, I would like to express my deep love and appreciation to my mother, brothers, and sisters who taught me the patience and the value of education. Without their patience and moral support, this research would not have been accomplished. Special thanks and gratitude to my cousin Ali A. Abual-Foul for providing me with the data I used in this study. I am indebted to him for his countless encouragements a n d m o r a l s u p p o r t. a l l t h o s e a r e m e n t i o n e d a b o v e a n d t h o s e a re n o t , e x t e n d g r a t i t u d e a p p r e c i a t i o n. x i i i and moral support . To all of those who are mentioned above and those who are not , I extend my gratitude and appreciation. xiii p e o p l e a s s o c i a t e t h e M i d d l e E a s t w i t h o i l t he p r o s p e r i t y i t b r o u g h t . t h e l o n g t h i s an i n c o r r e c t e m p h a s i s . c r u c i a l p r o b l e m i s t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y of w a t e r . C e r t a i n l y t h e h e a r t t h e M i d d l e E a s t h i s t o r i c a l l y and t o d a y i s t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y w h e r e t h e g r e a t c o n t i n e n t s of A f r i c a A s i a t o g e t h e r w h e r e E u r o p e h a s b e e n so d e e p l y i n v o l v e d t h e m i l l e n n i a . t h e i s s u es s u r r o u n d i n g t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y w a t e r c a n s e e n i n a l l i ts s t a r k c o m p l e x i t y. W a t e r i s e s s e n t i a l r e q u i s i t e t o a l l l i f e . p e r c e n t o u r p l a n e t ' s s u r f a c e i s c o v e r e d w i t h w a t e r w h i ch o n l y p e r c e n t i s u s a b l e M i l l e r J r . 1990) . T h e r e a r e many d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s w h e r e w a t e r i s s c a r c e r e s o u r c e 1 w h i ch e v e n t u a l l y p o s e c o n s t r a i n t s e c o n o m i c g r o w t h . s u c h c o u n t r y i s J o r d a n , c o u n t r y w i t h a r e a a n d p o p u l a t i on Munasinghe (1992) argues t h a t according t o Falkenmark (1989), water s h o r t a g e s could occur in a s i t u a t i o n where the annual renewable water r e s o u r c e s f e l l short of 2000 cubic meters per person while t h e r e is an i n c r e a s i n g demand for water due t o t h e development p r o c e s s . Munasinghe (1992) a l s o added t h a t in 1990, a c c o r d i n g t o World Bank, a l l c o u n t r i e s of t h e Middle East and North A f r i c a , and f i v e c o u n t r i e s of E a s t e r n Africa and four c o u n t r i e s of Southern Africa have become a good example of such s i t u a t i o n where t h e annual renewable water r e s o u r c e s per c a p i t a i s l e ss t h a n 2000 cubic m e t e r s. CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION Most people associate the Middle East with oil and the prosperity it has brought. In the long run this is an incorrect emphasis. The crucial problem is the availability of water. Certainly the heart of the Middle East historically and today is the Jordan Valley where the two great continents of Africa and Asia come together and where Europe has been so deeply involved over the millennia. Here the issues surrounding the availability of water can be seen in all its stark complexity. Water is an essential requisite to all life. About 71 percent of our planet's surface is covered with water of which only 3 percent is usable ( Miller Jr. 1990). There are many developing countries where water is a scarce resource1 which may eventually pose as constraints on economic growth. One such country is Jordan, a country with an area and population that to water shortages could occur in a situation where the annual renewable water resources fell short of 2000 cubic meters per person while there is an increasing demand for water due to the development process. Munasinghe (1992) also added that in 1990, according to World Bank, all countries of the Africa, five countries Eastern countries situation where the annual renewable water resources per capita is less than 2000 cubic meters. 2 c o m p a r a b l e t o K e n t u c k y . J o r d a n i s m o s t l y a r i d c o u n t ry r e c e i v i n g a v e r a g e m i l l i m e t e r s a b o u t 7 . 9 i n c h e s ) of r a i n f a l l a n n u a l l y . 2 T h i s , c o m p a r e d t h e minimal r e q u i r e m e n t of 400 m i l l i m e t e r s ( a b o u t 1 5 . 8 i n c h e s ) of a v e r a ge a n n u a l r a i n f a l l for c u l t i v a t e d a g r i c u l t u r e (Coone et a l. 1 9 8 1 ) , r e v e a l s t h e m a g n i t u d e w a t e r s c a r c i t y i n J o r d a n. J o r d a n i s e f f e c t i v e l y u r b a n s t a t e w i t h a p p r o x i m a t e ly p e r c e n t t h e p o p u l a t i o n l i v i n g l o c a t i o n s with p o p u l a t i o n s o v e r 5 0 0 0 . c o n t i n u i n g e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t of J o r d a n i s c r u c i a l l y l i n k e d t o i t s e f f i c i e n t use of w a t er r e s o u r c e s . The p r o b l e m of a v a i l a b l e s o u r c e s and d i s t r i b u t i on o f w a t e r a r e f u r t h e r c o m p l i c a t e d by J o r d a n ' s h i s t o r i c al r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h I s r a e l W i s h a r t & 1 9 8 9 ) . This h i s t o r i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p c o n t i n u e s t o d o m i n a t e t h e a l l o c a t i on o f w a t e r i n t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y , t h e m o s t i m p o r t a n t a g r i c u l t u r al a r e a i n J o r d a n , as w e l l as t h e s o u r c e of most of i t s w a t er r e s o u r c e s . 1 . 1 R a t i o n a l e t h e R e s e a r ch p r o b l e m w a t e r s h o r t a g e i n J o r d a n h a s i n c r e a s ed o v e r t i m e a n d h a s r e c e n t l y a c u t e p r o b l e m , p a r t i c u l a r ly d u r i n g p e r i o d s d r o u g h t . i n c r e a s e s i n p o p u l a t i o n a n d t he e x p a n s i o n t h e p r e s s u r e t he 2 About 200 m i l l i m e t e r s (about 7.9 inches) of r a i n f a l l a n n u a l l y is r e c e i v e d on about 91.4 p e r c e n t of the country, while a l e v e l of annual r a i n f a l l between 200 t o 500 m i l l i m e t e r s i s r e c e i v e d on 8.6 p e r c e n t of the c o u n t r y ' s area (FAO 1982, 54). comparable to Kentucky. Jordan is mostly an arid country receiving on average 200 millimeters ( about 7.9 inches) of rainfall annually.2 This, when compared to the minimal requirement millimeters about 15.8 inches) average annual rainfall cultivated agriculture al. 1981), reveals the magnitude of water scarcity in Jordan. Jordan is effectively an urban state with approximately 70 percent of the population living in locations with populations over 5000. The continuing economic development of Jordan is crucially linked to its efficient water resources. problem available sources distribution of water are further complicated Jordan's historical relationship with Israel ( Wishart 1985 & 1989) . This historical relationship continues to dominate the allocation of water in the Jordan Valley, the most important agricultural area in Jordan, well the source its water resources. 1.1 Rationale of the Research The problem of water shortage in Jordan has increased over time and has recently become acute problem, particularly during periods of drought. The increases in population and the expansion of the economy has put more pressure on the 2 millimeters rainfall annually is received percent level annual rainfall to millimeters is received percent the country's 3 a v a i l a b l e w a t e r s u p p l y t h u s c a l l i n g f o r c o u n t r y w i d e w a t er p l a n i n v o l v i n g t h e r e t h i n k i n g p o l i c y r e g a r d i n g t h e p r e s e nt p l a n a l l o c a t i o n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s d i f f e r e n t u s e s. The e x t e n t of t h e w a t e r p r o b l e m i n J o r d a n i n c r e a s e s e v e r y d a y. F o r e x a m p l e , S a l a m e h 1 9 9 2 ) , h y d r o l o g i s t a t t h e U n i v e r s i ty o f J o r d a n , w a r n s t h a t J o r d a n i s u s i n g a b o u t p e r c e n t i ts a n n u a l r e n e w a b l e r e s o u r c e s w a t e r . a l s o a d d e d t h a t J o r d an i s o v e r u s i n g i t s n o n r e n e w a b l e r e s o u r c e s which c a n n o t be r e p l e n i s h e d r a i n f a l l . A l s o , i n i n t e r v i e w w i t h t h e F r e n ch P r e s s p u b l i s h e d i n t h e A D - D u s t o u r N e w s p a p e r in J o r d a n , K u ' w a r ( 1 9 9 3 ) , t h e M i n i s t e r of W a t e r a n d I r r i g a t i o n in J o r d a n , a r g u e d t h a t t h e w a t e r p r o b l e m i n J o r d a n i s i n c r e a s i n g: i t i s e x p e c t e d t h a t t h e w a t e r d e f i c i t in t h e c o u n t r y w i ll r e a c h a b o u t 70 p e r c e n t by y e a r 2 0 0 5 . Thus t h e w a t e r i s s u e w i ll b e c o m e i n c r e a s i n g l y c r i t i c a l o v e r t i m e u n l e s s some m e a s u r es w i l l be t a k e n t o a l l e v i a t e i t. V a r i o u s f a c t o r s c o n t r i b u t e t o w a t e r s h o r t a g e s i n J o r d a n, s u c h a s t h e a r i d c l i m a t e , t h e i n c r e a s i n g d e m o g r a p h i c p r e s s u r e , a n d t h e w a t e r r i g h t s c o n f l i c t o v e r t h e J o r d a n R i v e r . M o r e o v e r, c h a n g e s i n t h e s e c t o r a l c o m p o s i t i o n of w a t e r demand i n t he e c o n o m y make i t c r u c i a l l y n e c e s s a r y t o r e e v a l u a t e t h e p o l i cy w i t h r e s p e c t t o a l l o c a t i o n of w a t e r r e s o u r c e s . I t i s hoped t h a t t h e p r e s e n t r e s e a r c h w i l l c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e p r o c e s s of e v a l u a t i n g w a t e r r e s o u r c e s in t h e c o n t e x t of economic d e v e l o p m e n t and a s an a i d t o b e t t e r d e c i s i o n m a k i n g. a d d e d m o t i v a t i o n f o r t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n i s t h e l a c k of available water supply thus calling for a countrywide water plan involving the rethinking of policy regarding the present plan of allocation of water resources among different uses. extent the water problem in Jordan increases every day. For example, Salameh ( 1992), a hydrologist at the University of Jordan, warns that Jordan is using about 120 percent of its annual renewable resources of water. He also added that Jordan is overusing its nonrenewable resources cannot be replenished by rainfall. Also, in an interview with the French Press Agency and published in the AD-Dust our Newspaper in Jordan, Ku'war 1993), the Minister Water and Irrigation in Jordan, argued that the water problem in Jordan is increasing: it is expected that the water deficit the country will reach about percent year 2005. the water issue will become increasingly critical over time unless measures will taken to alleviate it. Various factors contribute to water shortages in Jordan, such as the arid climate, the increasing demographic pressure, and the water rights conflict over the Jordan River. Moreover, changes in the sectoral composition water in the economy it crucially necessary to reevaluate the policy with respect to allocation water resources. It is hoped that the present research will contribute to the process of evaluating water resources the context economic development as aid to better decision making. An added motivation for this dissertation is the lack of 4 r e s e a r c h i n t h e a r e a J o r d a n i a n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s . T h e r e f o r e, t h i s l a c k c a l l s f o r s t u d i e s l a r g e s c a l e i n t h e a r ea a s i t r e l a t e s t o b o t h s h o r t - a n d l o n g - t e r m p l a n n i n g . F u r t h e r, b e l i e v e t h i s r e s e a r c h c o u l d b e e x t e n d e d a n d a p p l i e d t o c a s es i n o t h e r c o u n t r i e s t h a t f a c e s i m i l a r p r o b l e m s w a t er s h o r t a g e s i n t h e c a s e J o r d a n. 1 . 2 M e t h o d o l o gy o b j e c t i v e t h i s r e s e a r c h i s t o t h e p r o b l em o f w a t e r s h o r t a g e s i n J o r d a n c o u l d a f f e c t t h e p r o c e s s i ts e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t . e s t i m a t e g r o w th s c e n a r i o s f o r t h e J o r d a n o v e r t h e p e r i o d to 2 0 0 0 t a k e t h a t t h e o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n w e l f a re f u n c t i o n ) f o r e c o n o m i c s o c i a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n J o r d a n . p r i m a r y c o n c e r n i s t o d e t e r m i n e t h e f e a s i b i l i t y a c h i e v i ng t h e s e g o a l s . The model u t i l i z e d i n t h i s s t u d y i s an i n p u t - o u t p u t m a t r i x of J o r d a n f o r t h e y e a r 1 9 8 3 . U s i n g t h a t , we d e t e r m i n e t h e e f f e c t s on t h e l e v e l of demand f o r w a t e r of an e x p a n s i o n i n t h e J o r d a n i a n economy as i t p u r s u e s one or t he o t h e r p l a n f o r e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t. p r e s e n t r e s e a r c h w i l l c o n c e r n i t s e l f i n d i r e c t l y w i th a t t e m p t s t o d e v i s e e f f i c i e n t p a t t e r n a l l o c a t i o n w a t er r e s o u r c e s i t s c o m p e t i n g u s e r s , b u t t h e p r i m a r y f o c us w i l l t h e f o r w a t e r c r e a t e d t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s of w a t e r f o r d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s a s t h e r e s u l t m e e t i n g t h e g o a ls d e f i n e d t h e p l a n . t h i s c o m p l e t e d , c o m p a r i s o n s w i l l be research in the area of Jordanian water resources. Therefore, this lack calls for more studies on a large scale in the area as it relates to both short- and long-term planning. Further, I believe this research could be extended and applied to cases in other countries that face similar problems of water shortages as in the case of Jordan. 1.2 Methodology The objective of this research is to show how the problem of water shortages in Jordan could affect the process of its economic development. To do so, we estimate two growth scenarios for the economy of Jordan over the period 1990 to 2000 and take that as the objective function (or welfare function) for economic and social development in Jordan. Our primary concern is to determine the feasibility of achieving these goals. utilized in this study is input­output matrix Jordan for the year 1983. Using that, determine the effects the level for water an expansion in the Jordanian it pursues the other plan for economic development. The present research will concern itself indirectly with attempts to devise an efficient pattern of allocation of water resources among its competing users, but the primary focus will be on the demand for water created by the requirements of water for different sectors as the result of meeting the goals defined by the plan. With this completed, comparisons will be 5 b e t w e e n t h e w a t e r d e m a n d e d a n d t h e of w a t e r s u p p l i e d , e m p h a s i z i n g t h a t t h e l i k e l y o u t c o m e w i l l a s h o r t a g e w a t e r. F i n a l l y , t h e s t u d y w i l l f o c u s v a r i o u s p r o p o s a l s t h at a l l e v i a t e t h e p r o b l e m b y e n c o u r a g i n g w a t e r c o n s e r v a t i o n in t h e t h r e e b r o a d c a t e g o r i e s : d o m e s t i c , i n d u s t r i a l , t he a g r i c u l t u r a l . I t w i l l b e n e c e s s a r y t o e m p h a s i z e o t h e r m e a s u r es f o r i n c r e a s i n g w a t e r s u p p l y t h r o u g h s o u r c e s s u c h a s ; r e c y c l i ng e f f l u e n t , i m p r o v i n g s t o r a g e a n d d e l i v e r y s y s t e m s , s t u d y i n g t he f e a s i b i l i t y of c l o u d s e e d i n g , and i m p o r t i n g w a t e r f r om w a t e r - n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s . M o r e o v e r , t h e i s s u e of w a t e r r i g h ts b e t w e e n J o r d a n and i t s n e i g h b o r i n g c o u n t r i e s must be e x p e d i t i o u s l y r e s o l v e d. 1 . 3 O r g a n i z a t i o n t h e S t u dy p u r p o s e t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n i s t o e x a m i n e t h e u s e of i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s i n t h e a r e a w a t e r r e s o u r c e s m o d e l i ng a n d i t s a p p l i c a b i l i t y c o u n t r y w i d e b a s i s . i n t h is s t u d y , an i n p u t - o u t p u t model has b e e n u s e d in o r d e r to d e t e r m i n e t h e c o n s u m p t i o n w a t e r i n t h e J o r d an u n d e r t w o g r o w t h s c e n a r i o s o v e r t h e p l a n n i n g p e r i o d 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 0. The m o d e l h a s b e e n a l s o u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e demand f o r w a t er b y e a c h s e c t o r of t h e economy and t h e n t o c o m p a r e t h e t o t al d e m a n d w i t h t h e a v a i l a b l e s u p p l y of w a t e r i n J o r d a n p o i n t i ng o u t t h e a c u t e n e s s of t h e p r o b l e m of w a t e r s c a r c i t y and what s h o u l d b e d o n e a b o u t i t. made between the amount of water demanded and the amount of water supplied, emphasizing that the likely outcome will be a shortage of water. Finally, the study will focus on various proposals that may alleviate the problem by encouraging water conservation in the three broad categories: domestic, industrial, and the agricultural. It will be necessary to emphasize other measures for increasing water supply through sources such as; recycling effluent, improving storage and delivery systems, studying the feasibility cloud seeding, importing water from water­neighboring countries. Moreover, the issue water rights between Jordan its neighboring countries be expeditiously resolved. 1.3 Organization of the Study The purpose of this dissertation is to examine the use of input-output analysis in the area of water resources modeling and its applicability on a countrywide basis. Thus in this study, input-output been used order to determine the consumption of water in the economy of Jordan under two growth scenarios over the planning period 1990-2000. model has been also used to estimate the for water by each sector the then to compare the total demand with the available supply water in Jordan pointing out the acuteness the problem water scarcity what should be done about it. 6 s t u d y i s o r g a n i z e d f o l l o w s : C h a p t e r i n t r o d u c es t h e p r o b l e m a n d t h e r a t i o n a l t h e s t u d y a n d i t s o b j e c t i v e s. T h e n i t d e s c r i b e s t h e m e t h o d o l o g y t h e s t u d y t h e d a ta s o u r c e s u t i l i z e d i n t h e r e s e a r c h . I t c o n c l u d e s w i t h t h e r e v i ew o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e u s i n g i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s i n t h e a r ea o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s m o d e l i n g. C h a p t e r p r e s e n t s d e s c r i p t i o n J o r d a n f o c u s i n g on i t s p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i t s c l i m a t o l o g i c al c o n d i t i o n s . I t t h a t t h e c o u n t r y i s d i v i d e d i n t o t h r ee m a j o r r e g i o n s : t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y , t h e H i g h l a n d s , t he D e s e r t p l a t e a u . A l s o , t h i s c h a p t e r p r e s e n t s d e s c r i p t i o n of t h e t e m p e r a t u r e l e v e l s i n d i f f e r e n t r e g i o n s t h e c o u n t r y . It a l s o t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n p r e c i p i t a t i o n l e v e l s o v e r t he c o u n t r y . C h a p t e r p r e s e n t s b r i e f d e s c r i p t i o n b o t h t he h i s t o r i c a l t h e e c o n o m i c a l b a c k g r o u n d J o r d a n . I t shows t h e h i s t o r y J o r d a n e a r l y a g e s u n t i l I t a l so d e s c r i b e s t h e e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s of t h e c o u n t r y i n t e r m s of i t s e c o n o m i c g r o w t h a n d p e r f o r m a n c e , p o p u l a t i o n , l a b o r f o r ce a n d e m p l o y m e n t , a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r , i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r , and s e r v i c e s . I n C h a p t e r J o r d a n ' s W a t e r r e s o u r c e s a r e d e s c r i b e d. C h a p t e r t h e w a t e r s u p p l y s y s t e m t e r m s i ts a v a i l a b i l i t y s o u r c e s . I t a l s o b r i e f l y d e s c r i b e s o t h er p o s s i b i l i t i e s of s e e k i n g o t h e r s o u r c e s t o i n c r e a s e w a t er s u p p l y i n J o r d a n. The study is organized as follows: Chapter 1 introduces the problem and the rational of the study an9 its objectives. Then it describes the methodology of the study and the data sources utilized in the research. It concludes with the review of the literature on using input-output analysis in the area of water resources modeling. Chapter 2 presents a description of Jordan by focusing on its physical characteristics and its climatological conditions. It shows that the country is divided into three major regions: the Jordan Valley, the Highlands, and the Desert plateau. Also, this chapter presents a description of the temperature levels in different regions of the country. It also shows the distribution of precipitation levels over the country. Chapter 3 presents a brief description of both the historical and the economical background of Jordan. It shows the history of Jordan from early ages until now. It also describes the economic conditions the country in terms of its economic growth and performance, population, labor force and employment, agricultural sector, industrial sector, and services. In Chapter 4, Jordan's Water resources are described. Chapter 4 shows the water supply system in terms of its availability and sources. It also briefly describes other possibil ties seeking other sources to increase water supply in Jordan. 7 t h e o r e t i c a l f r a m e w o r k t h e u t i l i z e d i n t h is s t u d y i s d e v e l o p e d i n C h a p t e r 5 . I t d i s c u s s e s t h e i n p u t - o u t p ut m o d e l a s t h e o r e t i c a l f r a m e w o r k f o r t h e a n a l y s i s p l a n n i ng o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e s i t s a l l o c a t i o n d i f f e r e n t s e c t o rs i n t h e e c o n o m y . I t a l s o d e r i v e s d i f f e r e n t t y p e s i n p u t - o u t p u t m u l t i p l i e r s. C h a p t e r b e g i n s w i t h a n a l y s i s t h e d a t a t he i n t e r p r e t a t i o n t h e f i n d i n g s . t h e f i r s t p a r t , i t p r e s e n ts g e n e r a l d e s c r i p t i o n t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s J o r d a n i an e c o n o m y f o r t h e b a s e y e a r 1 9 8 3 . i t t h e e m p i r i c al r e s u l t s f o r t h i s s t u d y. C h a p t e r c o n t i n u e s w i t h t h e e m p i r i c a l r e s u l t s and e c o n o m i c p r o j e c t i o n s . p r e s e n t s o v e r v i e w w a t er r e q u i r e m e n t s i n t h e J o r d a n f o r t h e b a s e y e a r 1 9 8 3. I t a l s o d e v e l o p s t h e p r o j e c t i o n b o t h f i n a l a n d w a t er r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r t h e p l a n n i n g p e r i o d 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 0. F i n a l l y , C h a p t e r p r e s e n t s p o l i c y c o n s i d e r a t i o n s and r e c o m m e n d a t i o n s w h i c h c o n c l u d e t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n. 1 . 4 D a t a S o u r c es d a t a u s e d i n t h i s r e s e a r c h h a v e b e e n o b t a i n e d from g o v e r n m e n t a l s o u r c e s , i n t e r n a t i o n a l i n s t i t u t i o n s l i k e t he U n i t e d N a t i o n , o t h e r p u b l i s h e d u n p u b l i s h e d r e s e a r c h. f u l l l i s t i n g d a t a s o u r c e s the b i b l i o g r a p h y . The theoretical framework of the model utilized in this study is developed in Chapter 5. It discusses the input-output model as a theoretical framework for the analysis of planning of water resources and its allocation among different sectors in the economy. It also derives different types of input­output multipliers. Chapter 6 begins with an analysis of the data and the interpretation of the findings. In the first part, it presents a general description of the input-output tables of Jordanian economy for the base year 1983. Then it shows the empirical results for this study. Chapter 7 continues with the empirical results and economic projections. It presents an overview of water requirements in the economy of Jordan for the base year 1983. It also develops the projection of both final demand and water requirements for the planning period 1990-2000. Finally, Chapter 8 presents policy considerations and recommendations which conclude this dissertation. 1.4 Data Sources The data used in this research have been obtained from governmental sources, international institutions like the United Nation, and other published and unpublished research. A full listing of data sources may be found in the bibliography. 8 1 . 5 L i t e r a t u r e R e v i ew S i n c e i t s d e v e l o p m e n t i n N o b e l L a u r e a t e W a s s i ly L e o n t i e f , i n p u t - o u t p u t 3 a n a l y s i s h a s b e e n a p p l i e d d e c i s i on m a k e r s t o a s s i s t t h e m i n t h e i r p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s p l a n n i n g. I t s i m p o r t a n c e i n e c o n o m i c a n a l y s i s h a s b e e n s u m m a r i z e d by R o b e r t s a i d: T h e r e c a n h a r d l y b e e c o n o m i s t h a s n o t w a t c h e d w i t h a m a z e m e n t t h a t a r ea o f e c o n o m i c s , i n p u t - o u t p u t . (Dorfman 1 9 5 4 , 121) I n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s u s e f u l e x p l o r i n g the i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s i n d u s t r i e s an e c o n o m y a s w h o l e . L e o n t i e f s a y s a b o u t i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s is t h a t : I n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s i s m e t h o d of s y s t e m a t i c a l l y q u a n t i f y i n g t h e m u t u al i n t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p s t h e v a r i o us s e c t o r s c o m p l e x e c o n o m i c s y s t e m . In p r a c t i c a l t e r m s , t h e e c o n o m i c s y s t e m to w h i c h i t i s a p p l i e d b e a s l a r g e n a t i o n e v e n t h e e n t i r e w o r l d economy, o r s m a l l t h e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s i n g le e n t e r p r i s e . L e o n t i e f 1 9 8 6 , 19) I n g e n e r a l , t h e l i t e r a t u r e i s r i c h w i t h r e s e a r c h u s i ng i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s r e g i o n a l i n t e r r e g i o n al d e v e l o p m e n t p l a n n i n g f o r b o t h d e v e l o p e d d e v e l o p i ng c o u n t r i e s . I n p u t - o u t p u t a l s o b e e n u s e d t o a n a l y z e t he e f f e c t s p a r t i c u l a r r e s o u r c e s i n p u t s i n t h e p r o d u c t i on p r o c e s s f o r e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t . s p e c i f i c i n t e r e s t a re As t h e l i t e r a t u r e shows, i n p u t - o u t p u t s t a r t e d with the work of F r a n c o i s e Quesnay in t h e 18th c e n t u r y when he p u b l i s h e d h i s famous work Tableau Economique ( P h i l l i p s , 1955, 137-144) . 1.5 Literature Review Since its development in 1936 by Nobel Laureate Wassily Leontief, input-output3 analysis has been applied by decision makers to assist them in their policy decisions and planning. Its importance in economic analysis has been summarized by Robert Dorfman who said: There can hardly be an economist who has not watched with amazement that area of economics, input-output. (Dorfman 1954, 121) Input-output analysis is useful in exploring the interdependence among different sectors or industries in an economy as a whole. Leontief says about input-output analysis that: Input-output analysis is a method of systematically quantifying the mutual interrelationships among the various sectors of a complex economic system. In practical terms, the economic system to which it is applied may be as large as a nation or even the entire world economy, or as small as the economy of a metropolitan area or even a single enterprise. ( Leontief 1986, 19) In general, the literature is rich with research using input-output analysis in regional and interregional development and planning for both developed and developing countries. Input-output has also been used to analyze the effects of particular resources or inputs in the production process for economic development. Of specific interest are 3 the literature input-output started Francoise the century published his Economigue Phillips, 144). t h o s e s t u d i e s t h a t e x a m i n e t h e c o n s t r a i n t s e c o n o m i c g r o w th t h a t a r i s e f r om t h e s c a r c i t y p a r t i c u l a r r e s o u r c e s s u c h as w a t e r . t h e p r e s e n t r e v i e w t h e l i t e r a t u r e t h e se s t u d i e s w h i c h u t i l i z e i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s w i l l b e d i s c u s s e d. t h e i m p o r t a n c e t h e u s e i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s in t h e f i e l d u r b a n s t u d i e s , W e r n e r H i r s c h s t a t e d t h a t: I n p u t - o u t p u t t e c h n i q u e s a r e t o d a y ' s most p o t e n t t o o l s s y s t e m a t i c s t u d y of d i r e c t , i n d i r e c t i n c o m e - i n d u c e d e c o ­n o m i c c h a n g e s t h e u r b a n s c e n e . . . . i n p u t - o u t p u t t e c h n i q u e s c a n v a l u a b le c o n t r i b u t i o n s t h e s o l u t i o n v a r i e t y m a j o r u r b a n p r o b l e m s. . . . I n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s i s e s ­p e c i a l l y a p p l i c a b l e t o s t u d y a r e a - w i d e p r o b l e m s i t o c c u p i e s p i v o t al r o l e i n r e g i o n a l i n t e r a c t i o n a n a l y s i s. . F i n a l l y , i n p u t - o u t p u t t e c h ­n i q u e s a d a p t e d t o s h e d l i g h t on l a n d r e q u i r e m e n t s t h a t a r e l i k e l y to r e s u l t v a r i e t y f o r c e s , s u c h as z o n i n g c e n t r a l government h o u s i n g l e g i s l a t i o n , t a x r e v i s i o n s. H i r s c h 1 9 6 7 , 1 5 1 - 1 5 2) I n d e v e l o p i n g c o u n t r i e s , i n p u t - o u t p u t t e c h n i q u e s have b e e n a p p l i e d i n a n a l y z i n g t h e e c o n o m i c i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e among d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s t h e e c o n o m y , t h e p r o c e s s e c o n o m ic d e v e l o p m e n t . e x a m p l e , E l e i s h 1 9 6 7 ) , u s i n g t he i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s t h e E g y p t i a n i n 1 9 5 4 , a r g u es t h a t t h e i m p o r t s u b s t i t u t i o n s w i l l p l a y a s i g n i f i c a n t r o l e in t h e l e v e l i n d u s t r i a l i z a t i o n i n t h e E g y p t i a n w h i ch w i l l u l t i m a t e l y a f f e c t t h e t e c h n i c a l c o e f f i c i e n t s s t a b i l i t y of t h e e c o n o m y . t h e n e s t i m a t e d t h e d i r e c t i n d i r e c t i m p o r ts n e e d e d e a c h s e c t o r t h e t o s a t i s f y u n it 9 those studies that examine the constraints on economic growth that arise from the scarcity of particular resources such as water. In the present review of the literature some of these studies which utilize input-output analysis will be discussed. On the importance of the use of input-output analysis in the field of urban studies, Werner Z. Hirsch stated that: Input-output techniques are today's most potent tools for systematic study of direct, indirect and income-induced eco­nomic changes on the urban scene. input-output techniques can make valuable contributions to the solution of a variety of major urban problems. Input-output analysis is es­pecially applicable to a study of area­wide problems and it occupies a pivotal role in regional interaction analysis. Finally, input-output tech­niques can be adapted to shed light on land requirements that are likely to result from a variety of forces, such as zoning changed, central government housing legislation, or tax revisions. ( Hirsch 1967, 151-152) In developing countries, input-output techniques have been applied in analyzing the economic interdependence among different sectors of the economy, and the process of economic development. For example, Gamal Eleish ( 1967), using the input-output tables of the Egyptian economy in 1954, argues that the import substitutions will playa significant role in the level of industrialization in the Egyptian economy which will ultimately affect the technical coefficients stability of the economy. He then estimated the direct and indirect imports needed by each sector of the economy to satisfy a unit d e l i v e r y t o t h e f i n a l c o n c l u d e d t h a t w i t h r e f e r e n ce t o t h e c u r r e n t s t r u c t u r e t h e e c o n o m y , t h e s t a b i l i t y t he t e c h n i c a l c o e f f i c i e n t s t h e E g y p t i a n a r e l i k e ly t o c h a n g e t h a n t h a t t h e d e v e l o p e d e c o n o m y. I n t h e c a s e B a n g l a d e s h , M u s t a f a M u j e r i a n d Mohammad A l a u d d i n u s e d t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s t o s t u d y t he l e v e l i m p o r t s i n t h e c o n s u m p t i o n p a t t e r n s B a n g l a d e s h. p a p e r p r e s e n t s e s t i m a t e t h e i m p o r t s r e q u i r e d to s u p p o r t d i f f e r e n t c o n s u m p t i o n l e v e l s in d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s. T h e y a r g u e t h a t many of t h e i m p o r t s a r e u s e d t o s u p p o r t t he b a s i c c o n s u m p t i o n l e v e l of t h e s o c i e t y , and a l s o i t is d i r e c t e d t o w a r d s s u p p o r t i n g t h e c o n s u m p t i o n of a s p e c i al g r o u p , " t h e u r b a n e l i t e ." I n t h e d e v e l o p e d w o r l d , t h e u s e i n p u t - o u t p u t m o d e ls a r e p r i m a r i l y a p p l i e d t o a n a l y z e i m p a c t s l o c a l e c o n o m i es t h a t would r e s u l t from d i f f e r e n t p o l i c y p r o g r a m s . S e v e r al s t u d i e s were done u t i l i z i n g t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s . For e x a m p l e , i n t h e i r s t u d y of U t a h , Moore a n d P e t e r s e n (1955) u se a n i n p u t - o u t p u t model t o s t u d y t h e i n t e r i n d u s t r y r e l a t i o n s h i ps i n t h e economy of t h e s t a t e of U t a h , U . S . A . By e s t i m a t i n g t he e m p l o y m e n t and income m u l t i p l i e r s , t h e s t u d y shows t he s i g n i f i c a n c e p a r t i c u l a r s e c t o r s a r e t o t h e economy of U t a h .4 Another study in 1967 by Iver E. Bradley used i n p u t - o u t p ut a n a l y s i s t o examine t h e i n t e r i n d u s t r y i n t e r a c t i o n s among d i f f e r e n t s e c t o rs i n t h e economy of Utah. He used t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e for Utah, 19 63, in v a l u e t e r m s , t o c a l c u l a t e t h e o u t p u t , and income m u l t i p l i e r s . Bradley used a c t u a l data as opposed t o t h e approximations used by Moore and P e t e r s en b a s e d on t h e U.S. i n p u t - o u t p u t data (Bradley 1967, 1-13). 10 delivery to the final demand. He concluded that with reference to the current structure of the economy, the stability of the technical coefficients of the Egyptian economy are more likely to change than that of the developed economy. In the case of Bangladesh, Mustafa K. Mujeri and Mohammad Alauddin (1992) used the input-output analysis to study the level of imports in the consumption patterns of Bangladesh. The paper presents an estimate of the imports required to support different consumption levels different sectors. They argue that the imports are used to support the basic consumption level the society, also it is directed towards supporting the consumption special group, the urban elite." In the developed world, the use of input-output models are primarily applied to analyze impacts on local economies that result different policy programs. Several studies utilizing the input-output analysis. For example, in their study Utah, and Petersen use an input-output to study the interindustry relationships in the the state Utah, U.S.A. estimating the employment multipliers, the study the significance particular sectors are to the Utah. 4 rver input-output analysis to examine the interindustry interactions among different sectors in the economy of Utah. He used the input-output table for Utah, 1963, in value terms, to calculate the output, and income multipliers. Bradley used actual data as opposed to the approximations used by Moore and Petersen based on the U.S. input-output data (Bradley 1967, 1-13). A l s o , s t u d y W e r n e r H i r s c h u s e d i n p u t - o u t p u t t o s t u d y t h e e f f e c t e x o g e n o u s f o r c e s s u c h as c h a n g e s i n t h e f i n a l u p o n t h e m e t r o p o l i t an a r e a . The s t u d y f o c u s e d on t h e S t . L o u i s a r e a where he e s t i m a t e d t h e i n c o m e a n d e m p l o y m e n t m u l t i p l i e r s f o r t h e a r ea w h i c h h e l p s u s e d t h e d e c i s i o n m a k e r s i n t h e ir p l a n n i n g p r o c e s s . 5 A n o t h e r a p p l i c a t i o n i n p u t - o u t p u t i s i n t h e a r ea e x a m i n i n g t h e r o l e p a r t i c u l a r r e s o u r c e e c o n o m y , f or e x a m p l e e n e r g y . T h a t i s , t o d e t e r m i n e how much t h e economy as a w h o l e o r c e r t a i n s e c t o r s of t h e economy w i l l u s e e n e r g y in i t s p r o d u c t i o n p r o c e s s d i f f e r e n t g o o d s s e r v i c e s . For e x a m p l e , a n d M i l l e r u s e d i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s to s h ow t h e e n e r g y u s e t h e s e r v i c e s s e c t o r t h e S. e c o n o m y . F o r t h e p u r p o s e t h e i r s t u d y , t h e y u s e d t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s t h e U . S . f o r t h e y e a r s 1 9 7 7 . They e s t i m a t e d , for t h e y e a r s 1972 and 1977, t h e t o t a l e n e r gy ( d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t ) r e q u i r e m e n t s by t h e s e r v i c e s s e c t o r p er d o l l a r of o u t p u t n e e d e d t o s a t i s f y t h e f i n a l d e m a n d . Then t h ey c o m p a r e d t h e l e v e l s of t h e e n e r g y u s e by t h e s e r v i c e s s e c t or i n t h e y e a r s 1972 a n d 1977 a n d t h e y c o n c l u d e d t h a t t h e u s e of p r i m a r y e n e r g y a n d s e c o n d a r y e n e r g y w o u l d h a v e d e c l i n e d by 23 p e r c e n t a n d 12 p e r c e n t , r e s p e c t i v e l y h a d t h e e n e r g y t e c h n o l o gy For other s t u d i e s u t i l i z i n g i n p u t - o u t p u t model on a r e g i o n al l e v e l , see, for example, M i l l e r (1957, 200-209), Tiebout (1969, 334-340), and Baum e t a l . (1990, 54-71). 11 Also, a study by Werner Z. Hirsch (1959) used an input-output model to study the effect of exogenous forces such as changes in the final demand upon the economy of a metropolitan area. study focused the St. Louis area he estimated the income and employment multipliers for the area which helps or may be used by the decision makers in their planning process. 5 Another application of input-output model is in the area examining the role of a particular resource on an economy, for example energy. That is, to determine the as whole or certain sectors the will use energy in its production process of different goods and services. For example, Gowdy and Miller (1987) used input-output analysis to show the energy use in the services sector of the U. S . economy. For the purpose of their study, they used the input-output tables of the U.S. for the years 1972 and 1977. They estimated, the years the total energy direct indirect) requirements the services sector per dollar output needed to satisfy the final demand. they compared the levels the energy use the services sector in the years and and they concluded that the use of primary energy and secondary energy would have declined percent and percent, respectively had the energy technology 5 For other studies utilizing input-output model on a regional level, see, for example, Miller (1957, 200-209), Tiebout (1969, 334-340), and Baum et al. (1990, 54-71). l e v e l b e i n g a p p l i e d i n 1 9 7 2 .6 F i n a l l y , t h e r e h a v e b e e n s e r i e s s t u d i e s t h a t a n a l y ze e c o n o m i c d e v e l o p m e n t u s i n g i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s w h e r e w a t er i s t h e c o n s t r a i n e d r e s o u r c e . H a r t m a n u s e d i n p u t - o u t p ut m o d e l t o s t u d y t h e p r o b l e m a l l o c a t i o n w a t e r r e s o u r c es d i f f e r e n t u s e s r e g i o n s , p a r t i c u l a r l y f o r s m a ll a g r i c u l t u r a l i s , t o e x a m i n e t h e l o ss r e s u l t i n g l o s s c e r t a i n c r o p s o u t p u t i n l o c a t i on w h e r e w a t e r i s b e i n g t r a n s f e r r e d u s e , as a g r i c u l t u r e , t o a n t h e r l o c a t i o n. s t u d y B r a d l e y e x a m i n e d t he a l l o c a t i o n w a t e r r e s o u r c e s f o r t h e S t a t e u s i ng i n p u t - o u t p u t t e c h n i q u e s . U s i n g U t a h ' s i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l e s f or t h e y e a r 1 9 6 3 , t h e y e s t i m a t e d t h e w a t e r c o e f f i c i e n t s ( d i r e c t ly a n d i n d i r e c t l y ) , o u t p u t m u l t i p l i e r s , income m u l t i p l i e r s f o r d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s U t a h ' s e c o n o m y . t h ey p r o j e c t e d t o t a l w a t e r u s e f o r U t a h f o r t h e y e a r 1 9 7 5. T h e r e b e e n o t h e r s t u d i e s t h e a r e a w a t er r e s o u r c e s d e v e l o p m e n t t h a t u s e t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t m e t h o d s f r a m e w o r k f o r t h e i r a n a l y s i s . For e x a m p l e , a s t u d y p e r f o r m ed b y D a v i s (1969) h a s f o c u s e d on t h e i n t e r a c t i o n s of d i f f e r e nt e c o n o m i e s of t h e w e s t e r n s t a t e s of t h e U.S. and t h e ir i n t e r d e p e n d e n c e on e a c h o t h e r w i t h e m p h a s i s on w a t e r r e s o u r c es See also John L. R. Proops (1977 and 1988) for another a p p l i c a t i o n of i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s t o energy i n t e n s i t i e s . See a l s o , as examples. Pal Erdosi (1985), Hannon and Blazeck (1984), Gould (1986), and Cocklin et a l . (1989). 12 level of 1977 being applied in 1972. 6 Finally, there have been a series of studies that analyze economic development using input-output analysis where water is the constrained resource. Hartman (1965) used input-output model to study the problem of allocation of water resources among different uses and regions, particularly for a small agricultural economy. That is, to examine the income loss resulting from loss of a certain crops output in a location where water is being transferred from one use, such as agriculture, to anther location. A study by Bradley and Gander (1968) examined the allocation of water resources for the State of Utah using input-output techniques. Using Utah's input-output tables for the year 1963, they estimated the water coefficients (directly and indirectly), the output multipliers, and income multipliers for different sectors of Utah's economy. Then they projected total water use for Utah for the year 1975. There has been other studies in the area of water resources development that use the input-output methods as a framework for their analysis. example, study performed by Davis has focused the interactions different economies the western states the their interdependence each other with emphasis water resources 6 another application of input-output analysis to energy intensities. See also, as examples, Cocklin et al. (1989). i s s u e s . 7 U s i n g , w i t h a d j u s t m e n t s , t h e i n p u t - o u t p u t t a b l es a v a i l a b l e t h e n f o r t h e s e w e s t e r n s t a t e s , he d e v e l o p e d a w a t er c o e f f i c i e n t s m a t r i x f o r e a c h r e g i o n . p r e s e n t e d t he i n t e r r e g i o n a l d e p e n d e n c i e s i n t e r m s of w a t e r s u p p l y ; he u s ed C a l i f o r n i a e x a m p l e , p o i n t t h e i n t e r r e g i o n al d e p e n d e n c i e s f i n d i n g t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s w a t e r d e p e n d e n cy o f t h e w e s t e r n s t a t e s C a l i f o r n i a w a t e r s. B a r g u r u s e d i n p u t - o u t p u t a p p r o a c h l i n e ar p r o g r a m m i n g m e t h o d s t o a n a l y z e t h e p r o b l e m r e g i o n a l w a t er r e s o u r c e s i t s m a n a g e m e n t . 8 s t u d y u t i l i z e s d y n a m ic m u l t i s e c t o r p r o g r a m m i n g t o e x a m i n e t h e m a n a g e m e n t of s c a r c e r e s o u r c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y w a t e r l a b o r . s t u d y a p p l i e d t o C a l i f o r n i a t o t e n w e s t e r n s t a t e s w h e r e p l a n n i n g p e r i o d f i f t e e n y e a r s i m p l e m e n t e d , i t a l so s u g g e s t e d o p t i m a l r e s o u r c e a l l o c a t i o n . i n to c o n s i d e r a t i o n d i f f e r e n t l e v e l s w a t e r s c a r c i t y c o n s t r a i n t , t h e u s e d o b j e c t i v e f u n c t i o n s , b a s ed t h e m a x i m i z a t i o n g r o s s r e g i o n a l p r o d u c t , t h e o t h er b a s e d on t h e m a x i m i z a t i o n of c o n s u m p t i o n . The s t u d y a l so e x a m i n e d t h e r e g i o n a l and i n t e r r e g i o n a l t r a n s f e r of w a t e r and 7 For a r e l a t e d study on t h e i n t e r r e g i o n a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n c y focusing on water r e s o u r c e s , see I r e r i and C a r t e r (1970) where they s t u d i e d the economic l i n k s , and t h e e f f e c t s of water t r a n s f e r and t h e i r a l l o c a t i o n s on t h e economies of both s t a t e s of C a l i f o r n i a and Arizona. P r e v i o u s s e r i e s of s t u d i e s by U n i v e r s i t y of C a l i f o r n i a , Berkeley were performed on t h e economic e v a l u a t i o n of water where p a r t s of these s e r i e s used i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s to examine the e f f e c t of scarce r e s o u r c e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y water r e s o u r c e s on t h e C a l i f o r n i a economy. For F u r t h e r i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e s e s t u d i e s , see Lofting and McGauhey (1963), Bargur and McGauhey (1969), and Department of Water Resources, C a l i f o r n ia (1980) . 13 issues. 7 Using, with some adjustments, the input-output tables available then for these western states, he developed a water coefficients matrix for each region. Then he presented the interregional dependencies in terms of water supply; he used California as an example, to point the interregional dependencies by finding the coefficients of water dependency of the western states on California waters. Bargur (1972) used an input-output approach and linear programming methods to analyze the problem of regional water resources and its management. 8 The study utilizes a dynamic multisector programming model to examine the management of scarce resources, particularly water and labor. The study was applied to California and to ten US western states where a planning period of fifteen years was implemented, and it also suggested an optimal resource allocation. Taking into consideration different levels of water scarcity as a constraint, the model used two objective functions, one based on the maximization of gross regional product, and the other based the maximization consumption. study also examined the regional interregional transfer water and 7 related the interregional interdependency focusing resources, Ireri Carter studied the links, the effects transfer their allocations the states California Arizona. 8 Previous series studies University California, Berkeley the evaluation parts these series used input-output analysis to examine the effect of scarce resources, particularly resources the California Further information these studies, California i t s e f f e c t e c o n o m i c g r o w t h g r o s s r e g i o n a l p r o d u c t. B e s i d e s , t h e s h a d o w p r i c e s f o r w a t e r a n d l a b o r r e s o u r c e s were e s t i m a t e d . u s e i n p u t - o u t p u t i n t h e a r e a w a t er r e s o u r c e s p l a n n i n g a l s o a p p l i e d J a m e s (1974) t o s t u d y t h e w a t e r s u p p l y s y s t e m f o r H a w a i i . 9 s t u dy e s t i m a t e d t h e d i r e c t t o t a l d i r e c t p l u s i n d i r e c t ) w a t er r e q u i r e m e n t s d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s t h e w e l l as t h e w a t e r m u l t i p l i e r s . a l s o e s t i m a t e d t h e and e m p l o y m e n t m u l t i p l i e r s f o r d i f f e r e n t s e c t o r s t h e economy. s t u d y G r a y a n d e x a m i n e s t h e e f f e c t of e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y w a t e r u s e i n r e g i o n a l e c o n o m y . They u s e d i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l y s i s t o e s t i m a t e t h e e f f e c t c h a n g i ng i n f i n a l t h e l e v e l w a t e r d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t ) i n e a c h s e c t o r t h e e c o n o m i e s t h r e e c o u n t i e s of t h e S t a t e C o l o r a d o , U . A . 1 0 i s , t h e y e s t i m a t e d t he t o t a l w a t e r u s e by s e c t o r s n e c e s s a r y t o s a t i s f y a p r o j e c t ed c h a n g e s i n f i n a l demand. T h i s h a s b e e n e x t r e m e l y h e l p f u l i n f o r m u l a t i n g t he p r o b l e m s r a i s e d t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n . 1 1 h a v e h e l p e d in 9 The Hawain study acknowledged t h e l i m i t a t i o n s of the data used i n t h e study, where some d a t a were not a v a i l a b l e for c e r t a i n water using s e c t o r s . Therefore, some e s t i m a t e s were used t o e x p l a i n t h e model. 1 0 Another study by Hendricks and De Haan (1975) adapted i n p u t - o u t p u t model to water resources system for the South P l a t t e Basin (Hendricks and De Haan 1975, 1-92) . 1 1 It i s worth mentioning t h a t t h e above s t u d i e s a r e d i f f e r e n t from t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n in terms of t r e a t i n g water s e c t o r in t h e i r a n a l y s i s. They have c o n s i d e r e d water s e c t o r as an exogenous s e c t o r in t h e i r a n a l y s is where t h i s d i s s e r t a t i o n t r e a t e d water s e c t o r as an endogenous s e c t o r in 14 its effect on economic growth of gross regional product. Besides, the shadow prices for water and labor resources were estimated. The use of input-output model in the area of water resources planning was also applied by James E. Moncur (1974) to study the water supply system for Hawaii. 9 The study estimated the direct and total ( direct plus indirect) water requirements by different sectors of the economy as well as the water multipliers. It also estimated the income and employment multipliers for different sectors of the economy. A study by Gray and McKean (1976) examines the effect of economic activity on water use in a regional economy. They used input-output analysis to estimate the effect of changing in final demand on the level of water use ( direct and indirect) in each sector of the economies of three counties of the State of Colorado, U. S . A. 10 That is, they estimated the total water use sectors necessary to satisfy projected changes in final demand. This work has been extremely helpful in formulating the problems raised by this dissertation. 11 They have helped in 9 the limitations used in the data available certain using sectors. estimates to explain the 10 input­output model to water resources system for the South Platte Basin 92). 11 is that the studies are different from this dissertation in terms of treating water sector in their analysis. considered sector sector their analysis this dissertation treated sector sector in e m p h a s i z i n g c e r t a i n i s s u e s r a t h e r t h a n o t h e r s i n t e c h n i q u e s of a n a l y s i s , q u a l i f i c a t i o n r e s u l t s , m a n i f e s t a t i o n t h e d a t a, a n d a b o v e a l l i n p r o v i d i n g c o u r s e r e a l i t y i n k n o w i n g t h at t h e a n a l y s i s , s p i t e i t s p i t f a l l s , t he m a i n s t r e a m e m p i r i c a l e c o n o m i c s. t h e model. 15 emphasizing certain issues rather than others in techniques of analysis , qualification of results , manifestation of the data, and above all in providing a course of reality in knowing that the analysis , in spite of its many pitfalls, is in the mainstream of empirical economics . the J o r d a n i s c o u n t r y w i t h a r e a a b o u t 9 2 , 5 0 0 s q u a re k i l o m e t e r s , p o p u l a t i o n a b o u t 3 . 1 m i l l i o n 1 9 8 9 ), a n d w i t h v a r i e d t o p o g r a p h y . I t h a s E a s t M e d i t e r r a n e a n, h o t a n d d r y d u r i n g s e a s o n a n d c o l d a n d h u m i d d u r i n g t he w i n t e r . l e v e l r a i n f a l l f l u c t u a t e s o v e r t h e c o u n t r y, w h e r e i t r e a c h e s i t s t h e e a s t e r n h i l l s o v e r l o o k i ng t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y , p r o g r e s s i v e l y d e c r e a s e s a s to t h e e a s t e r n and t o t h e s o u t h e r n p a r t of t h e c o u n t r y w h e r e it i s p r i m a r i l y a d e s e r t . In t e r m s of t e m p e r a t u r e , i t c a n r e a ch 15 c e n t i g r a d e b e l o w z e r o e s p e c i a l l y in t h e h i g h e l e v a t i on a r e a s d u r i n g w i n t e r s , and a b o u t 40 c e n t i g r a d e i n t h e J o r d an V a l l e y d u r i n g t h e summer s e a s o n . A n o t h e r f a c t o r t h a t a f f e c ts t h e c l i m a t e a r e t h e K h a m a s e e n Winds w h i c h b l o w d u r i n g summer. T h e s e w i n d s a r e c h a r a c t e r i z e d by b e i n g hot and d r y , and u s u a l l y a c c o m p a n i e d by s a n d . They a r e t h e s o u t h e a s t e r n winds w h i c h b l o w f r om t h e S a u d i A r a b i a n D e s e r t. T h i s c h a p t e r i s d i v i d e d i n t o p a r t s . t h e f i r s t p a rt w i l l b r i e f l y d i s c u s s t h e p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t he t h r e e m a j o r r e g i o n s i n J o r d a n . T h e s e a r e , w e s t t o e a s t, t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y , t h e H i g h l a n d , t h e D e s e r t p l a t e a u (see CHAPTER 2 PHYSICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE REGION Jordan is a country with an area of about 92,500 square kilometers, a population of about 3.1 million (as of 1989), and with a varied topography. It has an East Mediterranean, hot and dry during summer season and cold and humid during the winter. The level of rainfall fluctuates over the country, where it reaches its maximum on the eastern hills overlooking the Jordan Valley, and progressively decreases as one moves to the eastern to the southern part the country where it is primarily desert. terms temperature, it can reach centigrade below zero especially the high elevation areas during winters, about centigrade in the Jordan Valley during the season. Another factor that affects the climate are the Khamaseen which blow during summer. These winds are characterized being dry, and usually accompanied sand. are the southeastern winds which blow from the Saudi Arabian Desert. This chapter is divided into two parts. In the first part I will briefly discuss the physical characteristics of the three major regions in Jordan. These are, from west to east, the Jordan Valley, the Highland, and the Desert plateau (see F i g u r e 1 ) S a l e h 1 9 9 1 18) . T h e n i n t h e s e c o n d p a r t , w i ll b r i e f l y e x a m i n e t h e c l i m a t e t h e c o u n t r y f o c u s i n g t he t e m p e r a t u r e t h e p r e c i p i t a t i o n l e v e l s o v e r t h e c o u n t r y as w h o l e. 1 T o p o g r a p . 1 J o r d a n V a l l ey J o r d a n V a l l e y o c c u p i e s t h e w e s t p a r t t h e Kingdom o f J o r d a n , i t i s p a r t t h e g r e a t A f r i c a n R i f t v a l l ey s t e m w h i c h e x t e n d s L e b a n o n s o u t h w a r d t o t h e of A q a b a t h e s e e F i g u r . 1 ) . T h i s f r om T i b e r i as s o m e t i m e s e f e r r e d t o a s t h e G a l i l e e ) n o r t h o t he G u l f a t s o u t h . I t s l e n g t h e x c e e d s a n d i ts e l e v a t i o n i s r o u g h l y 400 m e t e r s b e l o w s e a l e v e l a t t h e Dead S e a B a l b e s i B e n i - H a n i 1 9 9 0 3 5 ) . J o r d a n R i v e r f l o ws t h r o u g h t h i s v a l l e y s o u t h w a r d f r om Mount Hermon w h i c h i s t he s o u r c e of i t s t r i b u t a r i e s , and p a s s e s t h r o u g h H u l a h M a r s h e s to L a k e T i b e r i a s . From t h e l a k e , t h e J o r d a n R i v e r m e a n d e rs s o u t h w a r d w h e r e i t m e e t s t h e Yarmouk R i v e r , a n o t h e r major t r i b u t a r y , s o u t h of Lake T i b e r i a s , t o t h e Dead S e a , w h i c h is t h e l o w e s t p o i n t on e a r t h , i n t o w h i c h i t d r a i n s . The r e m a i n i ng p a r t of t h e V a l l e y , s o u t h of t h e Dead S e a , i s known as Wadi A r a b a h . W a t e r r e s o u r c e s i n t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y d e p e n d s m a i n l y 17 Figure 2 . 1) ( Saleh 1991 , 18). Then , in the second part, I will briefly examine the climate of the country by focusing on the temperature and the precipitation levels over the count ry a s a whole . 2 . 1 Top og rap hy 2 . 1 . 1 The Jordan Valley The Jordan Valley occupies the west part of the Kingdom of Jordan , and it is a part of the great African Rift valley s y stem which extends from Lebanon southward to the Gulf o f Aqaba on the Red Sea ( see Figur e 2 . 1). This from Lake Tiberias ( sometimes r eferred to as the Sea of Galilee) at north t o the Gulf of Aqaba at south. Its length exceeds 660 km and i ts elevation is roughly meters below sea level at the Dead Sea ( Balbesi and Beni- Hani 1990 , 35). The Jordan River flows thr ough this valley southward from which is the source its tributaries , passe through Hulah Marshes to Lake Tiberias . Fr om the lake , the Jordan River meanders southward where it meets the River , another ma jor tributary , south Tiberias , to the Sea, whi i s the lowest point earth, into which it drains. rema i ni part the Valley , south the Sea , is Wad i Arabah. Water resources in the Jordan Valley depends mainl y on F i g u r e 2 . 1 : R e l i e f Map of J o r d a n. SYRIA \0 The Desert Pl a teau Figure 2.1: Relief Jordan. SAUDI ARABIA -======~ 50 Mile 50 Km. ~ Israeli Occupied ~ Territories. 18 t h e J o r d a n R i v e r o t h e r w a d i s 1 2 c r e e k s ) w h i c h d r a in i n t o t h e R i v e r . p r e c i p i t a t i o n i n t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y i s v e ry l o w ; i t r e c e i v e s a b o u t t o m i l l i m e t e r s 5 . 9 1 t o 9 . 85 i n c h e s ) p e r S a k e t 1 9 8 5 , 1 0 ) . A n o t h e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y i s i t s h i g h t e m p e r a t u r e s d u r i n g summer and i t s t e m p e r a t u r e s d u r i n g w i n t e r. 2 . 1 . 2 H i g h l a n ds h i g h l a n d s a r e t h o s e w h i c h o v e r l o o k t h e J o r d a n V a l l ey f r om t h e e a s t . e x t e n d s n o r t h t o s o u t h w h e r e i ts e l e v a t i o n r e a c h e s a v e r a g e a b o u t m e t e r s a b o v e s ea l e v e l . The e l e v a t i o n i n c r e a s e s a s one moves t o w a r d s t h e s o u th w h e r e i t r e a c h e s more t h a n 1500 m e t e r s on an a v e r a g e a b o v e s ea l e v e l ( S a l e h 1 9 9 1 , 1 8 - 1 9 ) . 2 . 1 . 3 D e s e r t P l a t e au e a s t e r n a n d s o u t h e r n p a r t J o r d a n i s m a i n l y d e s e r t. I t o c c u p i e s a b o u t t h r e e - f o u r t h s J o r d a n ' s a r e a . T h i s a r e a is r e p l e t e w i t h v o l c a n i c f o r m a t i o n s , t h u s r e n d e r i n g t h e s o il u n s u i t a b l e f o r c u l t i v a t i o n . P r e c i p i t a t i o n i s v e r y low i n t h is a r e a : l e s s t h a n 100 m i l l i m e t e r s ( 3 . 9 4 i n c h e s ) i s r e c e i v ed a n n u a l l y . D u r i n g w i n t e r , some s m a l l s t r e a m s f l o w i n t o i t h e n ce r e p l e n i s h i n g t h e u n d e r g r o u n d w a t e r t a b l e . D u r i n g summer t h o se I t i s a p l u r a l of wadi. I t i s an Arabic name t h a t r e f e r s to the bed area where water flows during winters and are mostly dry during summers. These a r e s i m i l a r t o t h e c r e e k s t h a t are f a m i l i a r t o t h o s e in the w e s t e r n United S t a t e s. 19 the Jordan River and some other wadis 12 ( creeks) which drain into the River. The precipitation in the Jordan Valley is very low; it receives about 150 to 250 millimeters (or 5.91 to 9.85 inches) per annum ( Saket 1985, 10). Another characteristic of the Jordan Valley is its high temperatures during and its warm temperatures during winter. 2.1.2 The Highlands The highlands are those which overlook the Jordan Valley from the east. It extends from north to south where its elevation reaches on an average about 1200 meters above sea level. elevation increases as towards the south where it reaches than meters average above sea level Saleh 1991, 18-19). 2.1.3 The Desert Plateau The eastern and southern part of Jordan is mainly desert. It occupies about three-fourths of Jordan's area. This area is replete with volcanic formations, thus rendering the soil unsuitable for cultivation. Precipitation is very in this area: less than millimeters 3.94 inches) is received annually. During winter, small streams flow into it hence replenishing the underground water table. During those 12 It is plural It is that refers the during are similar to the creeks that familiar to those the western United States. s t r e a m s t u r n d r y. 2 . 2 C l i m a te c l i m a t e i n J o r d a n i s t y p i c a l l y E a s t M e d i t e r r a n e a n, d r y h o t d u r i n g s e a s o n h u m i d c o l d d u r i ng w i n t e r s e a s o n . t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n , c l i m a te i n d i c a t o r s w i l l d i s c u s s e d : t e m p e r a t u r e p r e c i p i t a t i o n. 2 . 2 . 1 T e m p e r a t u re a v e r a g e m o n t h l y t e m p e r a t u r e v a r i e s d e p e n d i n g t he s e a s o n t h e l o c a t i o n . D u r i n g f o r e x a m p l e , t he J o r d a n V a l l e y a n d A q a b a h a s h i g h t e m p e r a t u r e s . A q a b a , w h i ch i s i n t h e e x t r e m e s o u t h t h e c o u n t r y , t h e m o n t h l y a v e r a ge t e m p e r a t u r e r a n g e s b e t w e e n 2 8 . 7 C e n t i g r a d e t o 3 2 . 3 C e n t i g r a de d u r i n g t h e m o n t h s t o A u g u s t s e e T a b l e 2 . 1 ) . At D e i r A l i a , w h i c h i s i n t h e s o u t h e r n p a r t t h e J o r d a n V a l l ey a n d i n t h e w e s t e r n p a r t of t h e c o u n t r y , t h e m o n t h l y a v e r a ge t e m p e r a t u r e v a r i e s b e t w e e n 2 7 . 5 C e n t i g r a d e t o 3 1 . 5 C e n t i g r a de f o r t h e p e r i o d of May t o A u g u s t ( s e e T a b l e 2 . 2 ). D u r i n g w i n t e r , t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y t e m p e r a t u r e i n A q a b a, f o r e x a m p l e , r a n g e s b e t w e e n C e n t i g r a d e 18.7 C e n t i g r a d e f o r t h e m o n t h s D e c e m b e r t o M a r c h , r e a c h i n g i ts i n t h e m o n t h J a n u a r y w h e r e i t i s , a v e r a g e, a b o u t 1 1 . 8 C e n t i g r a d e s e e T a b l e 2 . 1 ) . I n t h e s o u t h e r n p a r t of t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y , t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y t e m p e r a t u r e i n D e ir A l i a , f o r e x a m p l e , v a r i e s b e t w e e n 1 2 . 1 C e n t i g r a d e 1 7 .8 20 streams turn dry. 2.2 Climate The climate in Jordan is typically an East Mediterranean, dry and hot during summer season and humid and cold during winter season. In the following section, two climate indicators will be discussed: temperature and precipitation. 2.2.1 Temperature The average monthly temperature varies depending on the season and the location. During summer, for example, the Jordan Valley and Aqaba has high temperatures. In Aqaba, which is in the extreme south of the country, the monthly average temperature ranges between 28.7 Centigrade to 32.3 Centigrade during the months of May to August of 1989 ( see Table 2.1). At Deir AlIa, which is in the southern part of the Jordan Valley and in the western part the country, the monthly average temperature varies between 27.5 Centigrade to 31.5 Centigrade for the period to August see Table 2.2). During winter, the average monthly temperature in Aqaba, for example, ranges between 11.8 Centigrade and 18.7 Centigrade for the months of December to March, reaching its minimum in the month of January where it is, on an average, about 11.8 Centigrade ( see Table 2.1). In the southern part of the Jordan Valley, the average monthly temperature in Deir AlIa, for example, varies between 12.1 Centigrade to 17.8 T a b l e 2 . 1 : M o n t h l y T e m p e r a t u r e a t A i r p o rt S t a t i o n D u r i n g 1989 C e n t i g r a d e ) M o n t h A v e r a g e T e m p e r a t u r e A v e r a g e Minimum T e m p e r a t u r e A v e r a g e T e m p e r a t u r e J a n u a r y 17 .1 6 .4 1 1 . F e b r u a r y 2 0 . 5 7 . 3 1 3 . 9 M a r c h 2 5 . 0 1 2 . 3 1 8 . 7 A p r i l 3 4 . 0 1 8 . 3 2 6 . 2 3 5 . 9 2 1 . 5 2 8 . 7 J u n e 3 7 . 7 2 2 . 6 3 0 . 2 J u l y 3 9 . 5 2 4 . 8 3 2 . 2 A u g u s t 3 9 . 1 2 5 . 4 3 2 . 3 S e p t e m b e r 3 6 . 4 2 3 . 3 2 9 . 9 O c t o b e r 3 1 . 1 9 . 1 2 5 . 4 N o v e m b e r 2 6 . 9 1 5 . 1 2 1 . 0 D e c e m b e r 2 1 . 5 9 . 3 1 5 . 4 S o u r c e : J o r d a n , D e p a r t m e n t S t a t i s t i c s DOS), S t a t i s t i c al Y e a r b o o k , T a b l e 1 / 1 6 ) p . 17. 21 Table 2.1: Monthly Temperature at Aqaba Airport Station During 1989 ( Centigrade) Average Maximum Average Minimum Average Month Temperature Temperature Temperature January 17.1 6.4 11. 8 February 20.5 7.3 13.9 March 25.0 12.3 18.7 April 34.0 18.3 26.2 May 35.9 21.5 28.7 June 37.7 22.6 30.2 July 39.5 24.8 32.2 August 39.1 25.4 32.3 September 36.4 23.3 29.9 October 31. 6 19.1 25.4 November 26.9 15.1 21.0 December 21.5 9.3 15.4 Source: Jordan, Department of Statistics (DOS) , Statistical Yearbook, 1989, Table ( 1/16) , p. 17. T a b l e 2 . 2 : M o n t h l y T e m p e r a t u r e a t D e i r A l ia S t a t i o n D u r i n g 1989 C e n t i g r a d e ) M o n t h A v e r a g e Maximum T e m p e r a t u r e A v e r a g e Minimum T e m p e r a t u r e A v e r a g e T e m p e r a t u r e J a n u a r y 1 6 . 2 7 . 9 1 2 . 1 F e b r u a r y 1 9 . 6 9 . 1 14 . 4 M a r c h 2 3 . 6 1 1 . 9 17 . 8 A p r i l 3 3 . 9 1 6 . 7 2 5 . 3 May 3 5 . 7 1 9 . 3 2 7 . 5 J u n e 3 6 . 5 2 0 . 8 2 8 . 7 J u l y 3 8 . 9 2 3 . 2 3 1 . 5 A u g u s t 3 8 . 6 2 4 . 2 3 1 . 4 S e p t e m b e r 3 6 . 6 2 3 . 3 2 9 . 9 O c t o b e r 3 1 . 6 1 9 . 7 2 5 . 7 N o v e m b e r 2 6 . 2 1 7 . 4 2 1 . D e c e m b e r 1 9 . 7 1 1 . 8 1 5 . 8 S o u r c e : J o r d a n , D e p a r t m e n t S t a t i s t i c s DOS), S t a t i s t i c al Y e a r b o o k , T a b l e 1 / 1 3 ) p . 14. Month January February March April June July August Table 2.2: Monthly Temperature at Deir AlIa Station During 1989 ( Centigrade) Average Maximum Average Minimum Average 22 Temperature Temperature Temperature 16.2 7.9 12.1 19.6 9.1 14.4 23.6 11. 9 17.8 33.9 16.7 25.3 35.7 19.3 27.5 36.5 20.8 28.7 38.9 23.2 31. 5 38.6 24.2 31. 4 September 36.6 23.3 29.9 October 31. 6 19.7 25.7 November 26.2 17.4 21. 8 December 19.7 11. 8 15.8 Source: Jordan, Department of Statistics (DOS) , Statistical Yearbook, 1989, Table ( 1/13) , p. 14. C e n t i g r a d e f o r t h e m o n t h s t o w i t h t he r e c o r d e d f o r t h e J a n u a r y w h e r e i t i s 1 2 .1 C e n t i g r a d e T a b l e 2 . 2 ) . f o r i n s t a n c e , the a v e r a g e m o n t h l y t e m p e r a t u r e r a n g e s b e t w e e n 2 1 . 7 C e n t i g r a d e and 2 5 . 5 C e n t i g r a d e d u r i n g t h e m o n t h s t o A u g u s t . I t is b e t w e e n 5 . 6 C e n t i g r a d e 1 1 . 7 C e n t i g r a d e d u r i n g m o n t h s of D e c e m b e r t o s e e T a b l e 2 . 3 ). I n I r b i d , w h i c h i s i n t h e n o r t h e r n p a r t t h e c o u n t r y, f o r i n s t a n c e , t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y t e m p e r a t u r e r a n g e s b e t w e en 2 1 . 9 C e n t i g r a d e 2 5 . 1 C e n t i g r a d e d u r i n g t h e m o n t h s t o A u g u s t , w h i l e i t b e t w e e n C e n t i g r a d e 12.2 C e n t i g r a d e d u r i n g m o n t h s D e c e m b e r t o M a r c h s e e T a b l e 2 . 4 ) . I n A l - R u w a i s h e d , i s i n t h e e a s t e r n p a r t t he c o u n t r y , w h e r e t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y t e m p e r a t u r e r a n g e s b e t w e en 2 4 . 4 C e n t i g r a d e 2 9 . 2 C e n t i g r a d e d u r i n g t h e m o n t h s t o A u g u s t , w h e r e a s i t i s b e t w e e n 4 . 5 C e n t i g r a d e 13.0 C e n t i g r a d e d u r i n g m o n t h s D e c e m b e r t o M a r c h s e e T a b l e 2 . 5 ) . 2 . 2 . 2 P r e c i p i t a t i on l e v e l p r e c i p i t a t i o n f l u c t u a t e s o v e r t h e c o u n t ry a n d i s h i g h l y v o l a t i l e . I t s r a i n f a l l i s u n e v e n ly d i s t r i b u t e d d e p e n d s t h e s e a s o n . 1 3 t e r m s t he a v e r a g e a n n u a l r a i n f a l l , J o r d a n c a n c l a s s i f i e d a r id Ku'war (1992), the J o r d a n i a n m i n i s t e r of water and i r r i g a t i o n, argued t h a t about 85 p e r c e n t of t h e r a i n f a l l e v a p o r a t e s . Only 5 p e r c e n t of i t r e p l e n i s h e s t h e groundwater b a s i n s and t h e r e s t (10 p e r c e n t ) appears as a s u r f a c e water. 23 Centigrade for the months of December to March, with the minimum recorded for the month of January where it is 12.1 Centigrade (see Table 2.2). In Amman, for instance, the average monthly temperature ranges between 21.7 Centigrade and 25.5 Centigrade during the months of May to August. It is between 5.6 Centigrade and 11.7 Centigrade during months of December to March ( see Table 2.3). In Irbid, which is in the northern part of the country, for instance, the average monthly temperature ranges between 21.9 Centigrade and 25.1 Centigrade during the months of May to August, while it is between 6.3 Centigrade and 12.2 Centigrade during months of December to March ( see Table 2.4). In Al-Ruwaished, which is in the eastern part of the country, where the average monthly temperature ranges between 24.4 Centigrade and 29.2 Centigrade during the months of May to August, whereas it is between 4.5 Centigrade and 13.0 Centigrade during months of December to March ( see Table 2.5). 2.2.2 Precipitation The level of precipitation fluctuates over the country and is highly volatile. Its meager rainfall is unevenly distributed and depends on the season. 13 In terms of the average annual rainfall, Jordan can be classified as an arid 13 Jordanian minister irrigation, that percent the rainfall evaporates. percent it replenishes the basins the rest percent) surface water. 24 T a b l e 2 . 3 : M o n t h l y T e m p e r a t u r e a t A i r p o rt S t a t i o n D u r i n g 1989 C e n t i g r a d e ) M o n t h A v e r a g e T e m p e r a t u r e A v e r a g e Minimum T e m p e r a t u r e A v e r a g e T e m p e r a t u r e J a n u a r y 9 . 6 1 .5 5 . , 6 F e b r u a r y 1 2 . 8 3 . 0 7 . , 9 M a r c h 1 6 . 9 6 . 5 1 1 . , 7 A p r i l 2 7 . 4 1 3 . 1 2 0 . , 3 2 8 . 6 1 4 . 8 2 1 . , J u n e 2 9 . 9 1 6 . 3 2 3 . . 1 J u l y 3 1 . 9 1 8 . 8 2 5 . . 4 A u g u s t 3 1 . 8 1 9 . 1 2 5 . . 5 S e p t e m b e r 3 0 . 3 1 6 . 8 2 3 . . 6 O c t o b e r 2 5 . 3 1 3 . 8 1 9 . . 6 N o v e m b e r 2 0 . 1 1 0 . 1 1 5 . . 1 D e c e m b e r 1 4 . 7 5 . 1 9. . 9 S o u r c e : J o r d a n , D e p a r t m e n t S t a t i s t i c s DOS), S t a t i s t i c al Y e a r b o o k , T a b l e 1 / 8 ) , p . Table 2.3: Monthly Temperature at Amman Airport Station During 1989 ( Centigrade) Average Maximum Average Minimum Average Month Temperature Temperature Temperature January 9.6 l.5 5.6 February 12.8 3.0 7.9 March 16.9 6.5 1l.7 April 27.4 13.1 20.3 May 28.6 14.8 2l. 7 June 29.9 16.3 23.1 July 3l. 9 18.8 25.4 August 3l. 8 19.1 25.5 September 30.3 16.8 23.6 October 25.3 13.8 19.6 November 20.1 10.1 15.1 December 14.7 5.1 9.9 Source: Jordan, Department of Statistics (DOS) , Statistical Yearbook, 1989, Table ( 1/8) , p. 9. 25 T a b l e 2 . 4 : M o n t h l y T e m p e r a t u r e a t I r b i d N u r s e ry S t a t i o n D u r i n g 1989 C e n t i g r a d e ) M o n th A v e r a g e T e m p e r a t u r e A v e r a g e T e m p e r a t u r e A v e r a g e T e m p e r a t u r e J a n u a r y 1 0 . 2 2 . 4 6. , 3 F e b r u a r y 1 3 . 7 4 . 2 9. , 0 M a r c h 1 6 . 7 7 . 7 1 2 . .2 A p r i l 2 7 . 4 1 4 . 0 2 0 . , 7 2 8 . 2 1 5 . 6 2 1 . . 9 J u n e 2 8 . 8 1 6 . 7 22 . . 8 J u l y 3 1 . 0 1 9 . 4 2 5 . .2 A u g u s t 3 0 . 8 1 9 . 4 2 5 . .1 S e p t e m b e r 29.4 1 8 . 1 2 3 . . 8 O c t o b e r 2 4 . 9 14 . 6 1 9 . . 8 N o v e m b e r 2 0 . 7 1 1 . 4 1 6 . , 1 D e c e m b e r 1 5 . 0 6 . 8 10, . 9 S o u r c e : J o r d a n , D e p a r t m e n t of Y e a r b o o k , T a b le S t a t i s t i c s DOS), 1 / 1 0 ) , p . 1 1. S t a t i s t i c a l Table 2.4: Monthly Temperature at Irbid Nursery Station During 1989 ( Centigrade) Average Maximum Average Minimum Average Month Temperature Temperature Temperature January 10.2 2.4 6.3 February 13.7 4.2 9.0 March 16.7 7.7 12.2 April 27.4 14.0 20.7· May 28.2 15.6 21. June 28.8 16.7 22.8 July 31.0 19.4 25.2 August 30.8 19.4 25.1 September 29.4 18.1 23.8 October 24.9 14.6 19.8 November 20.7 11. 4 16.1 December 15.0 6.8 10.9 Source: Jordan, Department of Statistics (DOS) , Statistical Yearbook, 1989, Table ( 1/10) , p. 11. T a b l e 2 . 5 : M o n t h l y T e m p e r a t u r e a t A L - R u w a i s h ed S t a t i o n D u r i n g 1989 C e n t i g r a d e ) M o n th A v e r a g e T e m p e r a t u r e A v e r a g e Minimum T e m p e r a t u r e A v e r a g e T e m p e r a t u r e J a n u a r y 9 . 3 0 . 4 4 . 5 F e b r u a r y 1 3 . 9 0 . 9 7 . 4 M a r c h 1 9 . 7 6 . 2 1 3 . 0 A p r i l 2 9 . 6 1 3 . 1 2 1 . 4 3 2 . 3 1 6 . 4 2 4 . 4 J u n e 3 5 . 1 1 7 . 6 2 6 . 4 J u l y 3 7 . 9 2 0 . 4 2 9 . 2 A u g u s t 3 7 . 4 2 0 . 2 2 8 . 9 S e p t e m b e r 3 4 . 0 1 7 . 2 2 5 . 6 O c t o b e r 2 8 . 1 1 3 . 0 2 0 . 6 N o v e m b e r 2 1 . 8 . 3 1 5 . 0 D e c e m b e r 1 5 . 8 2 . 6 9 . 2 S o u r c e : J o r d a n , D e p a r t m e n t S t a t i s t i c s S t a t i s t i c al Y e a r b o o k , T a b l e 1 / 1 2 ) , p . 1 3 . ' " Table 2.5: Monthly Temperature at AL-Ruwaished Station During 1989 ( Centigrade) Average Maximum Average Minimum Average 26 Month Temperature Temperature Temperature January 9.3 - 0.4 4.5 February 13.9 0.9 7.4 March 19.7 6.2 13.0 April 29.6 13.1 2l.4 May 32.3 16.4 24.4 June 35.1 17.6 26.4 July 37.9 20.4 29.2 August 37.4 20.2 28.9 September 34.0 17.2 25.6 October 28.1 13.0 20.6 November 2l.6 8.3 15.0 December 15.8 2.6 9.2 Source: Jordan, Department of Statistics (DOS), Statistical Yearbook, Table ( 1/12), p. 13. t o s e m i a r i d c o u n t r y . a v e r a g e a n n u a l r a i n f a l l v a r i e s from m i l l i m e t e r s t o n e a r l y t h a n m i l l i m e t e r s . a r e as w i t h t h e h i g h e s t r a i n f a l l a r e t h o s e r o c k y m o u n t a i n s n e a r t he J o r d a n V a l l e y - D e a d r i f t . T a b l e 2 . 6 p r e s e n t s t h e a v e r a ge a n n u a l r a i n f a l l i t s d i s t r i b u t i o n i n J o r d a n . e x a m p l e, a b o u t p e r c e n t c o u n t r y a r e a r e c e i v e s l e s s t h a n m i l l i m e t e r s p e r w h i l e a b o u t p e r c e n t i t s t o t al a r e a r e c e i v e s b e t w e e n m i l l i m e t e r s a n n u a l l y (see T a b l e 2 . 6 F i g u r e 2 . 2 ). I n r a i n f e d a g r i c u l t u r e , t h e f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e l e v el o f a n n u a l r a i n f a l l c a n a f f e c t t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r i n t e r ms o f t h e k i n d c r o p s t h a t s u p p o r t e d w i t h t he l i m i t e d r a i n f a l l e x c l u d i n g i r r i g a t e d a g r i c u l t u r e ) . For i n s t a n c e , t h e c a s e J o r d a n , M i t c h e l l (1986) s t a t e d t h a t l e v e l r a i n f a l l b e t w e e n m i l l i m e t e r s (mm) p e r y e a r i s s u i t a b l e f o r g r o w i n g b a r l e y . A l so l e v e l r a i n f a l l b e t w e e n a n d m i l l i m e t e r s a n n u a l ly i s s u i t a b l e f o r g r o w i n g b a r l e y and l e g u m e s w i t h r e l a t i v e ly g o o d s u c c e s s , w h i l e w h e a t and o l i v e s w i t h l e s s s u c c e s s . A l so a n a v e r a g e a n n u a l r a i n f a l l of 350 t o 400 m i l l i m e t e r s can s u p p o r t g r o w i n g c r o p s s u c h as s t o n e f r u i t s , o l i v e s , w h e a t, b a r l e y , and l e g u m e s . An a v e r a g e a n n u a l r a i n f a l l of 400 m i l l i m e t e r s or h i g h e r can s u p p o r t g r o w i n g c r o p s s u c h as l e n t i l s , c h i c k p e a s , t o m a t o e s , o k r a , w a t e r m e l o n , t o b a c c o , in a d d i t i o n t o t h o s e c r o p s a l r e a d y m e n t i o n e d i n t h e g r o u p of 350 t o 400 m i l l i m e t e r s p e r y e a r . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , a r a n g e l a nd 27 to semiarid country. The average annual rainfall varies from 50 millimeters to nearly more than 500 millimeters. The areas with the highest rainfall are those rocky mountains near the Jordan Valley-Dead Sea rift. Table 2.6 presents the average annual rainfall and its distribution in Jordan. For example, about 91.4 percent of country area receives less than 200 millimeters per annum while about 8.6 percent of its total area receives between 200 and 500 millimeters annually (see Table 2.6 and Figure 2.2). In a rainfed agriculture, the fluctuations in the level of annual rainfall can affect the agricultural sector in terms of the kind of crops that can be grown or supported with the limited rainfall ( excluding irrigated agriculture) For instance, in the case of Jordan, Qasem and Mitchell (1986) stated that a level of rainfall between 200 and 300 millimeters per year is suitable for growing barley. Also a level of rainfall between 300 and 350 millimeters annually is suitable for growing barley legumes with relatively good success, while wheat olives with less success. Also an average annual rainfall to millimeters can support growing crops such stone fruits, olives, wheat, barley, legumes. average annual rainfall millimeters higher support growing crops such as lentils, chickpeas, tomatoes, okra, water melon, tobacco, in addition to those crops already mentioned in the group to millimeters per year. the other hand, range land T a b l e 2 . 6 : A v e r a g e A n n u a l R a i n f a l l I ts D i s t r i b u t i o n J o r d an R a i n f a l l 3 A r e a 3 T o t a l A r ea m i l l i m e t e r ) S q u a r e K i l o m e t e r s) P e r c e n t a g e ) 5 9 , 3 2 7 6 4 . 1 0 100 1 3 , 851 14 . 97 200 1 1 , 395 12 . 31 300 3 , 948 4 . 2 7 400 1 , 7 8 8 1 . 500 1 , 2 5 3 1 . 3 5 t h a n 500 1 . 07 T o t a l 9 2 , 5 51 100 . 00 S o u r c e : R e g i o n a l S t u d y R a i n f e d A g r i c u l t u r e and A g r o c l i m a t i c I n v e n t o r y E l e v e n C o u n t r i e s in t h e N e a r E a s t R e g i o n , 1 9 8 2 , p . 54. Rainfall a Table 2.6: Average Annual Rainfall and Its Distribution In Jordan Areaa Of Total Area ( millimeter) ( Square Kilometers) ( Percentage) 50 59,327 64.10 50 - 100 13,851 14.97 100 - 200 11,395 12.31 200 - 300 3,948 4.27 300 - 400 1,788 1. 93 400 - 500 1,253 1. 35 More than 500 989 1. 07 Total 92,551 100.00 Source: a) FAO, Regional Study on Rainfed Agriculture and Agroclimatic Inventory of Eleven Countries in the Near East Region, Rome, 1982, p. 54. 28 F i g u r e 2 . 2 : D i s t r i b u t i o n of R a i n f a l l in J o r d a n. N J.. SAUDI ARABIA IRAQ _=======-- 50 Mile 50 KIn. F=I Israeli Occupied E:3 Territories. Figure 2.2: Distribution of Rainfall in Jordan. 29 e x c e p t i r r i g a t e d a r e a s ) c o v e r s t h o s e a r e a s w i t h l e s s t h a n 200 m i l l i m e t e r s p e r y e a r. T a b l e 2 . 7 m o n t h l y a n d s e a s o n a l a m o u n t s r a i n f a ll r e g i s t e r e d f o r s e l e c t e d y e a r s i n J o r d a n . I t r e v e a l s t h a t t he r a i n y s e a s o n f o r t h e p e r i o d s 1 9 5 4 - 1 9 6 2 1 9 8 8 - 1 9 89 e x t e n d s f r om O c t o b e r t o F o r i n s t a n c e , d u r i n g t h e p e r i od 1 9 5 4 - 1 9 6 2 , t h e a v e r a g e r a i n f a l l h i g h d u r i n g t h e m o n t h s of N o v e m b e r w i t h t h e h i g h e s t l e v e l r a i n f a ll r e g i s t e r e d i n t h e m o n t h s J a n u a r y 7 6 . 4 and 8 2 . 8 m i l l i m e t e r s , r e s p e c t i v e l y ) . W h e r e a s d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d of 1 9 8 8 - 1 9 8 9 , t h e a v e r a g e r a i n f a l l h i g h d u r i n g t h e m o n t h s D e c e m b e r t o w i t h t h e h i g h e s t l e v e l r a i n f a ll r e g i s t e r e d i n t h e m o n t h of D e c e m b e r ( 8 8 . 0 5 m i l l i m e t e r ). r e g i o n a l l e v e l , t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n r a i n f a l l v a r i es d i f f e r e n t r e g i o n s , i n T a b l e 2 . 8 . e x a m p l e, t h e r a i n f a l l o c c u r s i n t h e e a s t e r n h i l l s it r e c e i v e s a v e r a g e a b o u t 5 0 0 - 6 0 0 m i l l i m e t e r s ( 1 9 . 7 - 2 3 . 64 i n c h ) a n n u a l l y , w h i l e t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y r e c e i v e s a v e r a g e of 2 0 0 m i l l i m e t e r s ( 7 . 8 8 i n c h ) p e r y e a r . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t he J o r d a n i a n d e s e r t , which forms most of t h e c o u n t r y ' s a r e a, r e c e i v e s l e s s t h a n 100 m i l l i m e t e r ( 3 . 9 4 i n c h e s ) on an a v e r a ge a n n u a l l y ( s e e T a b l e 2 . 8 ). s h o r t a g e i n r a i n f a l l a f f e c t s t h e a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t or d i r e c t l y a n d t h e u n d e r g r o u n d w a t e r t a b l e s . A d d i t i o n a l l y , t h is l a c k r a i n f a l l a l t e r s t h e r u n o f f r i v e r s a n d s p r i n g s w h i ch u l t i m a t e l y c a u s e s h o r t a g e i n m e e t i n g t h e f o r w a t e r 30 ( except irrigated areas) covers those areas with less than 200 millimeters per year. Table 2.7 shows monthly and seasonal amounts of rainfall registered for selected years in Jordan. It reveals that the rainy season for the periods of 1954-1962 and 1988-1989 extends from October to May. For instance, during the period 1954-1962, the average rainfall was high during the months of November to March with the highest level of rainfall registered in the months of December and January ( 76.4 and 82.8 millimeters, respectively). Whereas during the period of 1988-1989, the average rainfall was high during the months of December to March, with the highest level of rainfall registered in the month December 88.05 millimeter). On a regional level, the distribution of rainfall varies among different regions, as shown in Table 2.8. For example, the maximum rainfall occurs in the eastern hills where it receives on an average about 500-600 millimeters (19.7-23.64 inch) annually, while the Jordan Valley receives an average of 200 millimeters 7.88 inch) per year. the other hand, the Jordanian desert, the country's area, receives less than millimeter 3.94 inches) average annually see Table 2.8). The shortage in rainfall affects the agricultural sector directly and the underground water tables. Additionally, this lack of rainfall alters the runoff of rivers and springs which ultimately cause a shortage in meeting the demand for water by T a b l e 2 . 7 : A v e r a g e M o n t h l y R a i n f a l l J o r d an F o r S e l e c t e d Y e a rs i n M i l l i m e t e r s) M o n th A v e r a g e R a i n f a l l 9 1 9 5 4 - 1 9 6 2 ) A v e r a g e R a i n f a l l 13 1 9 8 8 / 1 9 8 9 ) O c t o b e r 4 . 0 7 . 4 3 N o v e m b e r 3 9 . 8 12 . 41 D e c e m b e r 7 6 . 4 8 8 . 0 5 J a n u a r y 8 2 . 8 3 9 . 5 8 F e b r u a r y 6 0 . 6 3 2 . 1 7 M a r c h 4 6 . 8 3 6 . 3 1 A p r i l 1 6 . 1 0 . 7 1 6 . 0 0 . 0 4 T o t a l 3 3 2 . 5 2 1 6 . 7 0 S o u r c e s : N a t u r , S a l i h , W a t e r S u p p l y f o r t he A g r i c u l t u r a l S e c t o r , " I n : A g r i c u l t u r a l S e c t o r of J o r d a n : P o l i c y S y s t e m s S t u d i e s , E d i t e d b y : Z a h l a n , L o n d o n : I t h a c a P r e s s , 1 9 8 5 , T a b l e 7 . 1 , p . 199. J o r d a n , D e p a r t m e n t S t a t i s t i c s S t a t i s t i c a l Y e a r b o o k , T a b l e 1 / 1 ) , 2. N o t e s : T h e s e c o l u m n s a r e n o t n e c e s s a r i l y c o m p a r a b le s i n c e t h e d a t a f o r t h e p e r i o d 1 9 5 4 - 1 9 6 2 a r e g i v en f o r a l l s t a t i o n s , w h e r e a s t h o s e f o r 1 9 8 8 / 1 9 8 9 a re g i v e n f o r s t a t i o n s . d a t a f o r m o n t h s J u n e t o S e p t e m b e r a r e n ot a v a i l a b l e . H o w e v e r , i t i s v e r y r a r e t h a t i t r a i n s in t h e s e m o n t h s. 31 Table 2.7: Average Monthly Rainfall In Jordan For Selected Years Month October November December January February March April May Total Sources: Notes: ( in Millimeters) Average Rainfalld ( 1954-1962) 4.0 39.8 76.4 82.8 60.6 46.8 16.1 6.0 332.5 Average Rainfallb ( 1988/1989) 7.43 12.41 88.05 39.58 32.17 36.31 0.71 0.04 216.70 a) Natur, Fahd Salih, " Water Supply for the Agricultural Sector," In: Agricultural Sector of Jordan: Policy and Systems Studies, Edited by: A. B. Zahlan, London: Ithaca Press, 1985, Table 7.1, p. 199. b) Jordan, Department of Statistics (DOS), Statistical Yearbook, 1989, Table ( 1/1), p 2. 1) These two columns are not necessarily comparable since the data for the period 1954-1962 are given for all stations, whereas those for 1988/1989 are given for 29 stations. 2) The data for months of June to September are not available. However, it is very rare that it rains in these months. T a b l e 2 .8 : A v e r a g e A n n u a l R a i n f a l l R e g i on i n M i l l i m e t e r s) R e g i o n A v e r a g e A n n u a l R a i n f a ll J o r d a n V a l l ey 250 E a s t e r n H i l ls 600 D e s e r t l e s s t h a n 100 S o u r c e : S a k e t , B a s s a m , J o r d a n i a n E c o n o m y , " I n: A g r i c u l t u r a l S e c t o r J o r d a n : P o l i c y S y s t e ms S t u d i e s , E d i t e d b y : Z a h l a n , L o n d o n : I t h a ca P r e s , 1985 , p . 10. Region Table 2.8: Average Annual Rainfall by Region ( in Millimeters) Average Annual Rainfall Jordan Valley Eastern Hills Desert 150 - 250 500 - 600 less than 100 Source: Saket, Bassam, "The Jordanian Economy," In: Agricultural Sector of Jordan: Policy and Systems Studies, Edited by: A. B. Zahlan, London: Ithaca Pre s s, 1985, p. 10. 32 33 t h e d o m e s t i c i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r s. 2 . 3 Summary O v e r a l l , c a n c o n c l u d e t h a t J o r d a n s u f f e r s s h o r t a ge o f i t s w a t e r s u p p l y , g i v e n i t s m o d e r n , u r b a n i z e d of e c o n o m i c a c t i v i t y c u r r e n t m e t h o d s d i s t r i b u t i o n . The i n c r e a s e i n w a t e r a n d t h e l i m i t e d w a t e r s u p p l y to l o w l e v e l s r a i n f a l l t h e h i g h t e m p e r a t u r e s d u r i ng w h i c h l e a d t o h i g h e v a p o r a t i o n l e v e l s , c o n t r i b u t e to t h e p r o b l e m w a t e r s h o r t a g e s i n J o r d a n . T h i s p r e d i c a m e nt p r i m a r i l y s t e m s J o r d a n ' s g e o g r a p h i c a l / c l i m a t o l o g i c al c o n d i t i o n s t h a t a r e p r i n c i p a l l y a r i d t o s e m i a r i d w h i c h is t y p i c a l a l l E a s t M e d i t e r r a n e a n c l i m a t e. H a v i n g d i s c u s s e d J o r d a n ' s t o p o g r a p h i c a l/ c l i m a t o l o g i c a l c o n d i t i o n s , t u r n t o b r i e f o v e r v i e w of J o r d a n ' s h i s t o r y and e c o n o m i c p e r f o r m a n c e. the domestic and industrial sectors. 2.3 Summary Overall, one can conclude that Jordan suffers a shortage of its water supply, given its modern, urbanized mix of economic activity and current methods of distribution. The increase in water demand and the limited water supply due to low levels of rainfall and the high temperatures during summer, which lead to high evaporation levels, contribute to the problem of water shortages in Jordan. This predicament primarily stems from Jordan's geographical/ climatological conditions that are principally arid to semiarid which is typical of all East Mediterranean climate. Having now discussed Jordan's topographical/ climatological conditions, I now turn to a brief overview of Jordan's history economic performance. U n d o u b t e d l y w a t e r i s t h e e s s e n t i a l e l e m e n t s of l i f e f o r b e i n g s , a n i m a l s , p l a n t s . p e r c e nt o f t h e e a r t h i s c o v e r e d w i t h w a t e r . H i s t o r i c a l l y , water r e s o u r c e s p l a y e d i m p o r t a n t r o l e forming c i v i l i z a t i o n s . B a s i c a l l y , t h e g r e a t c i v i l i z a t i o n s t h a t were s e t t l e d t h e b a n k s r i v e r s n e a r w a t e r w a y s . For e x a m p l e , t h e c i v i l i z a t i o n E g y p t h i s t o r i c a l l y i s s e t t l e d t h e b a n k s t h e N i l e R i v e r ; t h e c i v i l i z a t i o n of M e s o p o t a m i a e s t a b l i s h e d b e t w e e n t h e T i g r i s E u p h r a t es r i v e r s ; and t h e o l d c i v i l i z a t i o n of Yemen was a l s o s e t t l e d on a n a r e a r i c h i n i t s w a t e r r e s o u r c e s. B e y o n d t h i s , w a t e r r e s o u r c e s h a v e a l s o p o l i t i c a l and l e g a l d i m e n s i o n s t h a t a r e r e f l e c t e d w a t e r r i g h t s and r i p a r i a n l a w s . p o l i t i c a l t h e l e g a l d i m e n s i o n s a r e so c r u c i a l t h a t i t t r i g g e r s , i n c a s e s , c o n t i n u i n g s t a t e of a n i m o s i t y a n d t e n s i o n c o u n t r i e s t h a t a r e s c a r c e i n w a t er r e s o u r c e s . e x a m p l e t h i s i s t h e t e n s i o n t h a t o c c u r r ed b e t w e e n I s r a e l a n d A r a b c o u n t r i e s , p a r t i c u l a r l y J o r d a n , S y r i a, a n d L e b a n o n on one h a n d a n d b e t w e e n T u r k e y a n d I r a q a n d S y r ia on t h e o t h e r h a n d. CHAPTER 3 HISTORIC AND ECONOMIC BACKGROUND OF THE REGION Undoubtedly water is one of the essential elements of life for human beings, animals, and plants. About 75 percent of the earth is covered with water. Historically, water resources have played an important role in forming civilizations. Basically, the great civilizations that were settled on the banks of rivers and near waterways. For example, the civilization of Egypt was historically and is now settled on the banks of the Nile River; the civilization of Mesopotamia was established between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers; the old civilization also settled an area rich in its water resources. Beyond this, water resources have also political and legal dimensions that are reflected in water rights and riparian laws. The political and the legal dimensions are so crucial that it triggers, in some cases, continuing state of animosity and tension among countries that are scarce in water resources. An example of this is the tension that occurred between Israel and Arab countries, particularly Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon hand and between Turkey and Iraq and Syria the other hand. 35 T h i s c h a p t e r w i l l d i s c u s s f i r s t t h e h i s t o r i c a l b a c k g r o u nd o f J o r d a n . w i l l b r i e f l y d i s c u s s t h e i n h a b i t a n t s of J o r d a n t h e i r m a n a g e m e n t w a t e r r e s o u r c e s . i n t he s e c o n d p a r t w i l l e x a m i n e t h e e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s t he c o u n t r y f o c u s i n g f a c t o r s s u c h a s g r o w t h a n d p e r f o r m a n c e, p o p u l a t i o n , l a b o r f o r c e e m p l o y m e n t , a g r i c u l t u r a l s e c t o r, i n d u s t r i a l s e c t o r , s e r v i c e s. 3 . 1 H i s t o r i c B a c k g r o u nd a r e a s u r r o u n d i n g t h e J o r d a n R i v e r , c o n n e c t i n g Lake T i b e r i a s G a l i l e e ) i n t h e n o r t h t o t h e in t h e s o u t h h a s b e e n t h e c r u c i a l i n t e r f a c e among E u r o p e , A f r i ca a n d A s i a s i n c e t h e p r e h i s t o r i c p e r i o d . The a n c i e n t e m p i r es p a s s e d t h r o u g h t h e a r e a t h e i r t o g l o r y d e f e a t. P r o b a b l y m a j o r c l i m a t i c c h a n g e s p r e h i s t o r i c a l t i m e s to t h i s d a t e h a v e made t h e l a n d more o r l e s s h o s p i t a b l e t o some o f t h e p e o p l e w h e t h e r p a s s i n g t h r o u g h in r e l a t i v e l y s h o rt p e r i o d s of t i m e o r r e m a i n i n g f o r m i l l e n n i a , or c o m i n g , g o i n g, a n d r e t u r n i n g a g a i n. M o d e r n a r c h a e o l o g i s t s a r e d i s c o v e r i n g a b o u t t he h i s t o r y t h e a r e a d u r i n g t h e B r o n z e w h i c h e n d e d c . 1 2 00 B . C . E . T h e r e w e r e t h e t h e p e r i o d n u m b e r c i ty s t a t e s , l a r g e l y f o r l o n g p e r i o d s t i m e d o m i n a t e d t he E g y p t i a n s . p a s s a g e t i m e t h e s l o w r i s e t o in t h e a r e a by t h e I s r a e l i t e s r e a c h i n g a h i g h p o i n t under S o l o m o n . The I s r a e l i t e Kingdom, h o w e v e r , was s o o n b r o k e n a p a rt This chapter will discuss first the historical background of Jordan. Here I will briefly discuss the inhabitants of Jordan and their management of water resources. Then in the second part I will examine the economic conditions of the country by focusing on factors such as growth and performance, population, labor force and employment, agricultural sector, industrial sector, and services. 3.1 Historic Background The area surrounding the Jordan River, connecting Lake Tiberias (The Sea of Galilee) in the north to the Dead Sea in the south has been the crucial interface Europe, Africa and Asia since the prehistoric period. ancient empires passed through the area on their way to glory or defeat. Probably major climatic changes from prehistorical times to this date have the land or less hospitable to some of the people whether passing through relatively short periods time or remaining for millennia, corning, going, and returning again. Modern archaeologists are discovering more about the history of the area during the Bronze Age, which ended c.1200 B.C.E. There were by the end of the period a number of city states, largely and for long periods of time dominated by the Egyptians. The passage of time saw the slow rise to power in the area the Israelites reaching high point under Solomon. Israelite however, soon broken apart b y i n t e r n a l d i s s e n t i o n t h e a r e a d e v a s t a t e d t he A s s y r i a n s t h e B a b y l o n i a n s w i t h m e a s u r e s t a b i l i ty r e s t o r e d t h e c o m i n g A l e x a n d e r t h e G r e a t c . 3 2 0 ) t he f o r m a t i o n t h e S e l e u c i d s t h e s u c c e s s o r s of A l e x a n d e r . f i n a l l y c o n s o l i d a t e d t h e r e g i o n b e f o re t h e b e g i n n i n g t h e C h r i s t i a n e r a , i n i t i a t i n g a n o t h e r l o ng p e r i o d p r o s p e r i t y f o l l o w e d d e c l i n e t h e Empire s h i f t e d t h e w e s t t o B y z a n t i u m . T h i s l o n g p e r i o d f i n a l ly e n d e d w i t h t h e a r r i v a l t h e A r a b s c . 6 3 0 C . E . ) . a g a in t h e r e p e r i o d d e v e l o p m e n t f o l l o w e d a l o n g d e c l i n e. l a t t e r p a r t t h i s p e r i o d c o n s u m e d w i t h y e t a n o t h er l o n g c o n f l i c t w i t h t h e W e s t - t h e c r u s a d e r c . 1 1 0 0 - 1 2 5 0 C . E . ). a g a i n t h e p o w e r c e n t e r s h i f t s t o w a r d A f r i c a t he p e r i o d d o m i n a n c e b e g i n s w i t h i t s c e n t e r i n C a i ro c . 1 2 6 0 ) . f i n a l w r e n c h i n g e v e n t t h e o v e r w h e l m i n g of t h e a r e a t h e O t t o m a n T u r k s o n c e t h e a r e a is c o n t r o l l e d B y z a n t i u m - n o w c a l l e d I s t a n b u l . O t t o m an p e r i o d l a s t e d from c . 1 5 2 0 - 1 9 1 7 and e n d e d w i t h t h e r e t u r n of t h e E u r o p e a n a f t e r World War One. c a n s e e i n t h e h i s t o r y t h i s s m a l l a r e a t he i n t e r f a c e t h e g r e a t s o c i e t i e s A s i a , A f r i c a , E u r o p e. i t h a s s u r v i v e d a d a p t i n g t o t h e e b b f l o w of c i v i l i z a t i o n e v e n t s h a s m a n a g e d t o m a i n t a i n r o u g h, i m p e r f e c t , s o m e t i m e s t e n u o u s c o n t i n u i t y. C e r t a i n h i s t o r i c a l d e v e l o p m e n t s i n a g r i c u l t u r a l u s e s t a nd o u t . D u r i n g t h e p r e h i s t o r i c p e r i o d h u n t i n g , h e r d i n g , and 36 by internal dissention and the area was devastated by the Assyrians and the Babylonians with some measure of stability restored by the coming of Alexander the Great ( c.320) and the formation of the Seleucids Empire by the successors of Alexander. The Romans finally consolidated the region before the beginning of the Christian era, initiating another long period of prosperity followed by a decline as the Empire shifted from the west to Byzantium. This long period finally ended with the arrival of the Arabs ( c.630 C.E.). Once again there was a period of development followed by along decline. The latter part of this period was consumed with yet another long conflict with the West--the crusader ( c.ll00-1250 C.E.). Once again the power center shifts toward Africa as the period of Mamluk dominance begins with its center in Cairo ( c.1260). The final wrenching event was the overwhelming of the area by the Ottoman Turks and once more the area is controlled from Byzantium--now called Istanbul. The Ottoman period lasted c.1520-1917 ended with the return of the European after So we can see in the history of this small area the interface of the great societies of Asia, Africa, and Europe. Somehow, it has survived by adapting to the ebb and flow of civilization and events and has managed to maintain a rough, imperfect, and sometimes tenuous continuity. Certain historical developments in agricultural use stand out. During the prehistoric period hunting, herding, and a g r i c u l t u r e w e r e t h e p r i n c i p a l a c t i v i t i e s . s t u d i e s t he a r c h a e o l o g i c a l e x c a v a t i o n s t h a t t h e p e o p l e h a d s e t t l ed i n t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y R i v e r b a s i n b e f o r e 6000 B . C . E . I r r i g a t i o n p r o j e c t s w e r e u n d e r t a k e n w a t e r s t he w a d i s a n d t h e s t r e a m s w e r e h a r n e s s e d i n t h e a r e a t h e J o r d an V a l l e y t h a t t i m e . I t i s a l s o s u g g e s t e d t h a t J e r i c h o 1 4 is t h e o l d e s t c i t y w h e r e i r r i g a t e d a g r i c u l t u r e u n d e r t a k e n. K h o u r i a r g u e d t h a t a g r i c u l t u r e i n t r o d u c e d i n to t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y a b o u t y e a r s a g o , t h a t t h e r e were i r r i g a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s i n t h e V a l l e y b e g i n n i n g y e a r s a g o. I n t h e e a r l i e s t p e r i o d , t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y t h e most p o p u l a t e d i n t h e a r e a . T h i s t o i t s f e r t i l e l a n d and a b u n d a n t w a t e r r e s o u r c e s t h e J o r d a n R i v e r i ts t r i b u t a r i e s , m a i n l y t h e Z e r q a R i v e r s a l o n g w i th s i d e w a d i s t h a t f l o w i n t o t h e V a l l e y f r om t h e e a s t e r n h i l ls s e e F i g u r e 2 . 1 ) , w h i c h i t s u i t a b l e f o r p e o p l e t o s e t t le i n t h a t a r e a . t h e n o r t h e r n p a r t t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y t he a n n u a l r a i n f a l l a v e r a g e i s a b o u t m i l l i m e t e r s i n c h e s ) , w h e r e a s i n t h e s o u t h e r n a r e a t h e a n n u a l r a i n f a l l a v e r a g e d e c r e a s e s t o a b o u t 100 m i l l i m e t e r s (4 i n c h e s ) or l e ss s e e F i g u r e 2 . 2 ) . A l s o , t h e t e m p e r a t u r e d u r i n g w i n t er t i m e a b o u t t o C e n t i g r a d e b e t w e e n March) h a s i t s e f f e c t l e a d i n g p e o p l e t o s e t t l e t h e V a l l e y. The a r c h a e o l o g i c a l surveys in t h e Jordan V a l l e y show t h a t J e r i c ho i s the o l d e s t c i t y of the world where people s e t t l e d down and depend on a g r i c u l t u r e and r a i s e d l i v e s t o c k as t h e i r p r o f e s s i o n (Khouri 1981, 25). J e r i c h o , nowadays, i s a c i t y in t h e West Bank of t h e Jordan River. 37 agriculture were the principal activities. The studies and the archaeological excavations showed that the people had settled in the Jordan Valley and Yarmouk River basin before 6000 B.C.E. Irrigation projects were undertaken and waters of the wadis and the streams were harnessed in the area of the Jordan Valley by that time. It is also suggested that Jericho14 is the oldest city where irrigated agriculture was undertaken. Khouri (1981) argued that agriculture was introduced into the Jordan Valley about 9000 years ago, and that there were irrigation facilities in the Valley beginning 4500 years ago. In the earliest period, the Jordan Valley was the most populated in the area. This was due to its fertile land and abundant water resources where the Jordan River and its tributaries, mainly the Yarmouk and Zerqa Rivers along with side wadis that flow into the Valley from the eastern hills ( see Figure 2.1), which make it suitable for people to settle in that area. In the northern part of the Jordan Valley the annual rainfall on average is about 380 millimeters (15 inches), whereas in the southern area the annual rainfall on average decreases to about millimeters inches) less ( see Figure 2.2). Also, the warm temperature during winter time ( about 15 to 22 Centigrade between November and March) has its effect in leading people to settle the Valley. 14 archaeological the Valley that Jericho is the oldest city of the world where people settled down and depend on agriculture and raised livestock as their profession (Khouri 1981, 25). Jericho, nowadays, is a city in the West Bank of the Jordan River. 38 D u r i n g t h e B r o n z e A g e 1 5 B . C . t o B . C . ) , t he o t h e r h a n d , a g r i c u l t u r e a n d t r a d e w e r e t h e m o s t c h a r a c t e r i s t ic o f p r o d u c t i v e a c t i v i t i e s t h e p e o p l e l i v i n g t h e r e . I t is a l s o b e l i e v e d t h a t t h e r e w e r e a b o u t 3 0 0 , 0 0 0 p e o p l e d w e l l ed i n t h e a r e a. e r a t o h i g h ly d e v e l o p e d a g r i c u l t u r e i r r i g a t i o n s y s t e m s i n t h e J o r d an V a l l e y w i t h e m p h a s i s a q u e d u c t s c a n a l s . were c o n s t r u c t e d c i s t e r n s w e r e t h r o u g h o u t t h e V a l l e y. N a b a t a e a n s , r o u g h l y i n d e p e n d e n t u n t il c o m p l e t e l y i n t e g r a t e d i n t o t h e E m p i r e , d i s p l a ys r e m a r k a b l e i r r i g a t i o n w a t e r s t o r a g e s y s t e m s. D u r i n g t h e e a r l y p e r i o d t h e A r a b d o m i n a n c e , J o r d an f l o u r i s h e d e c o n o m i c a l l y p o l i t i c a l l y b e c a u s e i ts i m p o r t a n c e a l o n g t h e g r e a t t r a d i n g r o u t e s . D u r i n g t h a t p e r i o d, t h e a r e a e x p e r i e n c e d new d e v e l o p m e n t i n i r r i g a t i o n s y s t e m s, a n d u t i l i z a t i o n c i s t e r n s s p r i n g s . D u r i n g t h e Ummayad p e r i o d , of t h e e a r l y A r a b d o m i n a n c e , t h e r e were c a n a l s and r e s e r v o i r n e t w o r k s c o n s t r u c t e d i n p a r t of t h e J o r d a n V a l l e y. I n a d d i t i o n , t h e Mamluk p e r i o d i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e r e was an a b u n d a n c e of w a t e r . T h e r e w e r e s u f f i c i e n t w a t e r t o i r r i g a te s u g a r c a n e f a r m s and t o o p e r a t e t h e s u g a r m i l l s . When J o r d an The a r c h e o l o g i c a l e x c a v a t i o n s in the region showed t h a t the Bronze Age (about 2300 t o 2000 B.C) was t h e p e r i o d when a very advanced a g r i c u l t u r a l economies and an o r g a n i z e d p o l i t i c a l systems were founded by t h e people s e t t l e d t h e area (Shwadran 1959, 11). During the Bronze Age15 (3000 B.C. to 1200 B.C.), on the other hand, agriculture and trade were the most characteristic of productive acti vi ties of the people living there. It is also believed that there were about 300,000 people who dwelled in the area. The Roman era (62 B.C. to 330 A.D.) showed highly developed agriculture and irrigation systems in the Jordan Valley with emphasis on aqueducts and canals. Dams were constructed and cisterns were dug throughout the Valley. The Nabataeans, who were roughly independent until completely integrated into the Roman Empire, displays remarkable irrigation and water storage systems. During the early period of the Arab dominance, Jordan flourished economically and politically because of its importance along the great trading routes. During that period, the area experienced development in irrigation systems, and utilization of cisterns and springs. During the Dmmayad period, the early Arab dominance, there canals and reservoir networks constructed in part the Jordan Valley. In addition, the period indicates that there an abundance water. There were sufficient water to irrigate sugar cane farms to operate the sugar mills. Jordan 15 archeological excavations that the to the period advanced agricultural organized political the settled the b e c a m e p a r t t h e E m p i r e , 1 6 T u r k i s h r u l e s were a p p l i e d i n t h e r e g i o n , J o r d a n b e c a m e l e s s i m p o r t a n t t r a d i n g r o u t e i t s o v e r a l l s i g n i f i c a n c e, e s p e c i a l l y i n a g r i c u l t u r e , d e c l i n e d b e c a u s e t h e d e v e l o p m e nt o f t h e s h i p p i n g s e c t o r P h i l l i p s 1 2 - 2 6 ; V i n e 1 9 8 7 , 1 1 - 4 5 ; K h o u r i 1 9 8 1 , 2 1 - 6 7 ) . D u r i n g t h e O t t o m a n p e r i o d , J o r d a n p a r t was c a l l e d G r e a t e r S y r i a . " w a t e r l a w s t h a t i n e f f e ct d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d O t t o m a n E m p i r e w e r e b a s e d t h e " M e j e l le C i v i l Code"1 7 t r a n s l a t e d i n t o A r a b i c ( C a p o n e ra 1 9 5 4 , 9 0 - 9 1 ) . A f t e r W o r l d T r a n s j o r d a n f o r m e d . In 1 9 4 6 T r a n s j o r d a n o f f i c i